The Buffalo Sabres’ Playoff Drought WON’T END if They Don’t Do This

The Buffalo Sabres’ Playoff Drought WON’T END if They Don’t Do This

The Buffalo Sabres are the current owners of the longest postseason drought in the NHL, going on 14 years since they’ve last made the playoffs. And worse yet, it doesn’t seem like it’s going to be getting any better anytime soon. Over the last few years, the Sabres have been a popular pick by pundits to take the next step and finally crack the postseason glass ceiling. And every year over the last three or four years, they’ve come up short. And all this recent failure begs two questions. Are the Buffalo Sabres actually that close to finally breaking the playoff drought? And what do they have to do to finally get into the postseason? Well, today we’re going to be looking at the Buffalo Sabres organization in its entirety and designing a game plan that will get the Buffalo Sabres somewhere that they haven’t been since Jersey Shore was still on the air, the postseason. Now, let’s start at the very top of the organization with the management and head coaching. Kevin Adams is returning as GM of the Buffalo Sabres, during his fifth year on the job after replacing Jason Bail in 2020. Since taking over, the Sabres have obviously not made the playoffs once, have finished with a winning record in only two of his five seasons, and have only finished with more than 90 points one time. He has overseen the acquisition of players like Owen Power, who he took with the first overall pick in his first entry draft in 2021, along with other notable draft picks like Isaac Rosen, MacBonen, his first round pick in 2022, Kulage, one of his first round picks in 2021, free agent signings like Jason Zucker and Ryan Mloud, and trade acquisitions like when Byum, Josh Norris, Beck Menstein, and Jacob Bernard Docker. And honestly, that’s not a great resume for a guy who’s had four and a half seasons as GM of the Buffalo Sabres, especially when you consider some of the guys that he’s lost. Casey Middlestat dealt in that Bow and Byum trade. Dylan Cousins, who was traded for Norris and Bernard Docker, losing free agents like Lena Smar went out to be a stud for the rival Boston Bruins. Honestly, Adam’s resume does not justify him getting another crack at the apple, especially at such a critical juncture for the Sabres. And I thought that they should have moved on from him. Now, their head coach, Lindy Ruff, is of course back for his second stint as head coach of the Buffalo Sabres. He only has one year under his belt, so we can’t really judge him harshly, but the Sabres were competitive throughout the year, and it’s not like the other coaches he’s replaced have done so much better with this group. So, I don’t mind that the Savers are running it back with Lindy. Now, as for the organizational outlook, the Buffalo Sabres actually have a really good prospect pool according to the Hockey Raiders, number seven overall in the NHL. However, it’s headlined by some older prospects like Anton Wahberg and Devon Levi, who have aged out of the top 100 prospect rankings. So, their younger prospect pool is led by Consta Helenius, who’s a top 25 player. Noah Alland is a top 50 prospect, and Isaac Rosen is a top 100 prospect. And all those guys, other than Wahberg and Helenius, have gotten a chance to play for the Sabres last year. Deon Levi obviously started out as their starting goalender and was very quickly supplanted by Uko Pekka Lucanin while Austin and Rosen ended up in the Sabres lineup at the end of the year when they had a lot of forwards injured including Josh Norris, Beck Milestein, Joan Greenway and the like. So what is their team going to look like next year? Well, as you can see from their cap situation next year, they’re going to have about $21 million worth of money to play with. But they also have a few very important players who are going to be RFAS that they need to sign. Namely Brian Mloud who of course they traded a prospect who was a former top 10 pick and Matthew Savvo for along with the acquired Jacob Bernard Docker Jack Quinn and Bowen Byum and most importantly JJ Purka. Now AFP analytics does a contract projections for the offseason and they say that to sign all five of these big players is going to cost the Buffalo Sabres around $22.4 million or more than they have left in cap space. So they’re probably not going to bring back all five of these guys. But luckily since they’re all RFAS, they can either sign and trade or just let them get offer sheetated and they’ll get assets back. And the two guys who I would let go are going to be unpopular. The first one is Ryan Mloud just because I don’t think paying four or$5 million for a third line center on a team that finished in the bottom third when it comes to 5v5 expected goals for last season is really a good use of assets. The other guy is Bowen Byum who’s already been the subject of a lot of trade speculation and for good reason. Now, you can sign him to a very reasonable short-term extension, but if you sign him to a longerterm extension, it is going to absolutely break the bank. And unfortunately for what he is, which is a borderline top four defenseman, in my opinion, that’s not really worth it either. One more unpopular opinion is that if a team decides to go out and pay JJ Curka 7.5 to 8 million or more, I would seriously consider letting him walk. That is a lot of compensation you’d be getting back from him, a first, second, and third round pick in 2026. And I just don’t think he’s worth that. Now, if you can get them for good term at 6 or $7 million, I like that a lot. But if it’s 7.5 or eight, don’t like it quite as much because when you look at what the Buffalo Sabres had in their lineup next year compared to what teams need to win a Stanley Cup, as I talked about before, my eight archetypes of players that win you a Stanley Cup, they still need a lot of help, particularly down the middle and in goal. And those are places that are not going to be cheap to replace because yes, they have an elite wing in Cage Thompson, an elite number one defenseman in Russell, a legitimate top four defenseman in Owen Power, and two legit top six wings in JJ Purka and Alex Tuck. But that’s about it. And you need a lot more help, especially in those key areas I just mentioned if you want to be a serious competitor. What should they do this offseason? In addition to the RFA moves that I mentioned, they need to dump some of the dead weight from the bottom of their roster. I’m talking about guys like Sam Laferky, Jordan Greenway who are getting paid just a little bit too healthily for not a lot of contribution on the ice. And then use some of your forward prospects like Helenius, like Wahberg, like Rosen to fill in those spots. Up front, you probably need about two centers, and you’re not going to have a ton of money to play with. So, you have some options. One is to get a legitimate number one center, and of course, Mitch Martner is going to be mentioned in that category. But another guy who I think you could maybe trade some of those RFAS for and get back good value is Elias Person out of the Vancouver Conucks who needs a change of scenery and is getting paid a whole lot of money but is still an elite player when is at his best. Could you do a package like Byron plus Mloud plus something else for at least Person? Maybe. Maybe. I don’t think it’s completely out of the question. But your other option is to just kind of fish in the second tier of centers. guys like Matthew Duchain, John Dvaris, Sam Bennett where they get overpaid but are still legitimately good options and then you’re going to have to hope that one of your prospects can either fill into that number two role or that you can survive with Josh Norris. And hey, if you still got any money left over, maybe you can go and fish in the second, third tier of free agency on defense. Get a guy like Brent Burns who’s a little bit older. Maybe a Ryan Lindren, Brian Dumlain, Gaverov, one of those guys who can be gotten for a pretty friendly deal. I mean, I think upgrading your defense this offseason should be the lowest priority because you have so many issues center and goalie, but there could be good value to be had there. And then that leaves us last but not least with goalender. This here is where it is just so goddamn grim for the Buffalo Sabres cuz I do not think Ukolucan is a legitimate number one goalender. I don’t even know if he’s a 1A 1B type tandem goalie. If I was the Sabres, I would go out and try and get a legitimate number one guy. And the first person who popped to my mind was John Gibson who has been supplanted in Anaheim by Lucas Dash Stal. Yes, I know he’s got one year left on a pretty steep cap hit of $6.4 million, but probably the price to get him is not going to be very high. You just have to make the finances work. And hey, if Vancouver’s willing to deal with you and they want to blow everything up, could you make an offer on Thatcher Demco if Person doesn’t work out? He’s got a pretty reasonable $5 million cap hit. Maybe they just want a bunch of assets that would be worth it to make that trade in my opinion for Buffalo. But if those two don’t work, you’re probably running it back with Pekalucan in and running to the castoff pile to see if maybe a guy like Philip Grubower or Tristan Jarry can reclaim their careers in Buffalo. Not a great option in my opinion. You’re just buying a lottery ticket at that point. Finally, that just leaves the 2025 entry draft where the Buffalo Sabres will be selecting at number nine overall. Now, there are a lot of really good players available at this pick, and honestly, the Buffalo Sabres, if they stick here, should just go best player available. They have a lot of good really young defenseman. prospect core is loaded with forwards. Maybe if they want to trade back, pick up some assets and it can get Joshua Ravensburg the only goalender who is consistently projected to go in the first round. But that’s a pick who’s not really going to provide immediate help for the Saber. So, I would prefer that they just go BPA or and this would be a wild pipe dream if you want to solve all of your cap issues. take that nine pick and maybe another asset and try and trade up and get one of those elite forwards, a guy like Misa or Hagens. See if you can slot them into being a number two, number three center right off the bat. It’s a big risk, but at this point for the Sabres, you kind of have to take those kinds of risks because as a wise man from a great television show once said, “No more half measures. [Music]

The Buffalo Sabres risk their playoff drought going for another year if they don’t make MAJOR changes this offseason.

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