A look at who the Flyers could take at 12th Overall

Now that the Flyers know they will be picking 12th Overall I wanted to take a look at who the Flyers could have the opportunity to pick there. As many of you may know, this draft is pretty topsy-turvy with little consensus beyond Celebrini going first overall, but as Bob McKenzie pointed out, that doesn’t mean there isn’t some agreement where some guys should land. There is some agreement that after Celebrini there are five players (Ivan Demidov, Sam Dickinson, Artyom Levshunov, Cayden Lindstrom, and Anton Silayev) that are typically seen as a tier above the next group. Not saying these guys will go picks 2-6, but they will all very likely be top 10 picks.

After that is when things get harder to predict with a large group of about 7 players that are all in a tier of their own. I’ll also mention that Bob McKenzie on twitter gave an explanation as to why his recent draft ranking went to 15 and not 16, saying that he asks scouts for their top 10 and there was more consensus among the scouts he surveyed for those top 15 players. He mentioned he could have put a 16th skater, there were just fewer people that had that player in the top 10. I won’t focus on McKenzie’s 14th and 15th ranked skaters (late rising Beckett Sennecke and Trevor Connelly who comes some concerning off-ice issues), and instead focus on the players Bob McKenzie has ranked 7th-13th, but who could potentially be drafted anywhere between 2nd and 15th. I’ll also add in one player who isn’t listed on McKenzie’s rankings, but I could see the Flyers picking up (if he is even on the board when they pick).

I’ll list them in order of McKenzie’s rankings but also give their Elite Prospects (EP) consolidated ranking, as well as the range of where they are ranked on other lists. I’ll then give who I think who will be available when the Flyers pick.

[Zayne Parekh](https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/535574/zayne-parekh) – 6’0 RHD – Saginaw Spirit (OHL)
EP consolidated ranking: 10, Range: 3-13
Parekh got on a lot of radars last year by setting the record for most goals by a 16 year old defenseman in the OHL. He followed that up with the highest scoring draft year for a defenseman in the OHL in over 30 years. Parekh is arguably the most offensively dynamic player in the draft after Celebrini. He has great speed that he pairs with very fluid skating, similar to someone like Cale Makar, and he pairs that with great hands and great shot, and amazing offensive vision and instincts. He can create offense on the rush, standing at the point, and reading the opportunities and collapsing in to overwhelm defenders. While is offense is off the charts his defensive zone play is quite the struggle. You see this narrative a lot with these types of defenseman, but with Parekh I feel like if he was even just a little bit better at D he would be in that next tier up where bigger guys like Levshunov and Dickinson provide high level defense as well as put up great offensive numbers. Parekh has drawn comparisons to Erik Karlsson, but there is a thinner line than you’d expect between Erik Karlsson and Tony Deangelo. And the line between those guys isn’t as much about how they correct their defense, but if their offense can really reach another level.

[Zeev Buium](https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/603229/zeev-buium) – 6’0 LHD – Denver Pioneers (NCAA)
EP Consolidated: 9, Range: 5-16
Buium was a late riser coming out of a solid, but not exceptional 16/17 year old season with the NTDP. That changed when he got to Denver where he started taking minutes from more established players, eventually becoming the team’s top D in route to a National Championship. He also played a major role in helping the US win Gold at the World Juniors. While he doesn’t have the insane offense of Parekh, he is still likely the second best offensive defenseman in the draft. Buium has the added benefit of being much more sound defensively than Parekh, with Buium’s defensive awareness that may not put him on a level of someone like Sam Dickinson, but it’s still an attribute and it’s highly likely he’ll be able to improve his defense going forward. He isn’t very physical and can lose puck battles against bigger and stronger opponents, and he doesn’t have the nasty streak that sometimes pops up in Parekh’s game, but beyond that it’s hard to find holes in his game.

[Konsta Helenius](https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/796075/konsta-helenius) – 5’11 C – Jukurit (Finland)
EP Consolidated: 8, Range: 3-19
Helenius is one of the most well rounded forwards in the draft. He has high marks in pretty much every attribute, skating, shooting, vision, defense, compete, even physicality with is a lot of an undersized guy who has spent the majority of the last two seasons playing in a pro league that has, of recently, not been friendly to underaged players – or at least to their draft stock. In the last ~5 years Finns would come in ranked highly then see their draft stock fall over the year as they didn’t put up numbers in the SM-liiga. Aatu Raty famously went from a projected top 10 pick to being drafted halfway through the second round. Raty is now back to being considered a strong prospect and the guy who turned him around was former NHLer and Jukurit coach Olli Jokinen. Jokinen has done a good job reaching younger players, including helping Samu Tuomaala getting back on track, which explains why Helenius scored at a rate similar to former 2nd Overall picks Kaapo Kakko and Patrik Laine. One player that Helenius reminds me of from last draft is Dalibor Dvorsky, a player that has high marks in everything, but no one defining attribute (Dvorsky is also 2 inches taller). Dvorsky is a player I’d have been happy with the Flyers taking if Michkov didn’t reach them, and if Helenius falls to them he could be a great steal.

[Tij Iginla](https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/679717/tij-iginla) – 6’0 LW – Kelowna Rockets (WHL)
EP Consolidated: 13, Range: 6-23
A lot of times, the sons of famous players don’t play a similar style to their fathers, Max and Tie Domi being the most obvious example. Iginla, though, does have a lot the attributes that made Jarome a Hall of Famer. The most noticeable is the shot, while his name has always drawn attention to him, his shot is what has kept eyes on him. A heavy shot with a quick release and accurate to boot. Also like his dad, he’s a hard worker, the kind of player that can be tough to deal with no matter where on the ice he is. He mixes with that a level of toughness that doesn’t usually result in massive hits, but the ability to win puck battles and fight through hits to get to space. While he can snipe, he doesn’t rely on staying away from contact to score goals. He also has a high hockey IQ which makes him a pretty dangerous player, even though he is not particularly fast. Of the players in the top part of the draft he is probably the one who is the most raw all around. This could be an attribute with a high growth potential (his dad also famously bloomed a little late), but it could also lead to harsher judgement of those shortcomings considering his name brings with it high expectations.

[Berkly Catton](https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/597797/berkly-catton) – 5’11 C – Spokane Chiefs (WHL)
EP Consolidated: 6, Range 3-15
Catton is on the top of a lot of people’s wish lists going into the draft and it’s obvious to see why. He’s a dynamic skater with great both great speed and excellent mobility. He’s got a great shot and a quick release which helped him score 54 goals in 68 games in the WHL this season. But he is likely a better playmaker than he is a scorer, as his great vision, crisp passes, and maneuverability could make him an elite player at the next level. He is closest player to Claude Giroux in this draft year which would immediately endear him to Flyers fans. But one issue could be last year’s most Giroux-esc player, Zach Benson, who fell from being ranked in the 5-7 range to being picked at 13th Overall. This could show teams don’t value undersized centers, but given Benson’s immediate impact for the Sabres in his draft I think a lot of teams will be more open to taking this type of player. That said he has been slipping down rankings recently, partially because of a slightly underwhelming playoffs (he got 4 points as Spokane was swept) and was too old for the U18 tournament so he couldn’t make a lasting impact.

[Carter Yakemchuk](https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/599451/carter-yakemchuk) – 6’3 RHD – Calgary Hitmen (WHL)
EP Consolidated: 16, Range: 10-24
Yakemchuk is interesting, because while he should be right in the Flyers wheelhouse (Ranked 12th in McKenzie’s ranking, 14 of 17 rankings still have him available when the Flyers picked) but I actually think Yakemchuk will likely go a lot higher than people may expect. The draft is stacked with defenseman, even defensemen that combine size, physicality, and offense, so it could be easy to see why Yakemchuk is slightly further down the list, but some of his attributes could make him jump over some of the guys in the next tier up. Yakemchuk was better than point per game in the WHL, he was also the first draft eligible defenseman in the league to score 30 goals in over 20 years. While not the most fluid skater compared to some of the other D, he has great puck skills and great straight, paired with his size and line speed that allows him to rush the puck up ice easily. He mixes this with good physicality that makes him tough to deal with in the defensive zone (but would likely bring the dread “they picked a Flyer” comments on the draft broadcast). There is some question in his decision making, whether that is an Achillies heel or just something to work through will be something the Flyers have to decide. But that is the big lynch pin, if it’s a fixable issue Yakemchuk is a 1st pair D, if it’s not he could be a NHL/AHL tweener.

[Cole Eiserman](https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/597619/cole-eiserman) – 6’0 LW – USNTDP
EP Consolidated: 14, Range: 2-16
Eiserman is probably the most interesting name on the list. Coming into the season he was the clear number 2 with some even speculating that he could overthrow Celebrini by the end of the year. Instead he has a precipitous drop, in McKenzie’s midseason rankings Eiserman was 4th, he’s now sitting at 13th. So what happened? Eiserman is potentially the most unbalanced player in this section of the draft, he is great at somethings and below average in others. His shot is second to none and he could even up being a 50-60 goal scorer in the NHL, which is why he was ranked so high in the first place. But other things like his speed which is lack luster, his compete in all zones, and decision making are questionable. He can compete in board battles, has great hands, and a crazy fast release, but there are questions if he is too one dimensional or too much of a passenger at his current level, let alone the next level. There are some things to keep in mind, as a project top pick for a while now he is under more extreme scrutiny than other players. With very high expectations, if a player doesn’t meet or frankly exceed those expectations their highs will rarely out shine the lows. It’s comparing apples and oranges a bit, but someone like Silayev who rocketed up the charts this season won’t face the same scrutiny. There is also something I’ve noticed a bit more lately out of the USNTDP, they undoubtedly produce excellent players, but their you rarely see them rounding out their games between their U17 and U18 seasons. Players skills are sharpened but the weak points in their games typically aren’t fixed, and they don’t start becoming more well rounded until their next stop. This usually gets overshadowed by the super high end skill in the players second year in the program, but for Eiserman who only did marginally better and was outshone by James Hagens, the issues are more glaring. I think there are areas of concern, being a passenger and having questionable decision making can be big red flags, if you can fix those issues he’s Nikita Kucherov, if you can’t he’s Nail Yakupov. But you can’t help but think about if another elite talent fell into the Flyers lap way later than previously expected.

[Michael Brandsegg-Nygard](https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/619176/michael-brandsegg-nygard) – 6’1 RW – Mora (Allsvenskan – Swedish 2nd league)
EP Consolidated: 12, Range: 7-29
We get to the only player I’m discussing that wasn’t on McKenzie’s list, but that’s not to say the Flyers won’t pick him at 12, or that he can’t go higher with some prognosticators bullish on him sneaking into the top 10. Brandsegg-Nygard is a well rounded, high hockey IQ player with the shot and skating to make him both an offensive threat and a defensive powerhouse. At the WJC he was the engine of the outmatched Norway team, able to make plays and win battles against some of the best U20 players in the world. Playing in Sweden’s second league he’s been able to carve out a role while putting up respectable numbers. Brandsegg-Nygard will be the highest drafted Norwegian ever, but his background is one of the things that I think make him a pretty intriguing pick. There are some rough elements to his game, but those are typically smoothed when you get to higher levels in most of North America and Europe, Brandsegg-Nygard already excels at the difficult parts of development like speed and smarts, making his mechanics more crisp and adding a little bit of physicality to his game could provide huge dividends. Another interesting aspect is that he is a good candidate to move to center, speed, smarts, good size on top of being a strong shooter and a good playmaker make him an idea candidate, but his pathway has made him more of a wing so far in his career. If Konsta Helenius is off the board, Brandsegg-Nygard is next best thing, if not having the potential to surpass Helenius.

**So** **Who** **are** **the** **Flyers** **Taking?**

Since the Flyers are at the back of the pack for this tier their actual decision for who they will pick will likely come down to one or two players. It will make the 30 minutes before their pick incredibly stressful, but it when it comes time to make a decision it will probably happen fast.

While this draft is going to be hard to predict, we can look at the young core/prospects of the teams directly in front of the Flyers to see if can show players they are less likely to take. I have a feeling the Flyers will be left with a choice between Parekh, Eiserman, and Brandsegg-Nygard, with a chance that Helenius falls to them. It depends what other teams prioritize either trying for a home run or trying for a safer pick, with the three teams directly in front of the Flyers likely prioritizing safer picks.

I’m not sure the Flyers would lean towards Parekh unless he has a big time champion in the organization. The reward is sky high, but there is also a high risk, and as I mentioned the difference between him reaching his peak isn’t about correcting his mistakes, but whether or not he has generational offensive talent. He’s also not typically the kind of defenseman the team takes so high. Also, not for nothing, there are a bunch of similar style defenseman available later in the round when the Flyers pick again but obviously no guarantees.

In previous years I worried about the Flyers passing over highly skilled players for safer or more “Flyers” picks. I don’t really have that fear this year given the due diligence this front office put in to Michkov, as well as the whole Gauthier situation I think they’ll put in the leg work to determine if Eiserman has the right head to be a 50-60 goal type guy, or another Nail Yakupov. If they pass on him for a safer pick I’ll be fine with it knowing that they have a clear picture of the players future that you can’t get from stat sheets and highlight reels.

That said, I think it ultimately will be **Cole** **Eiserman** the Flyers pick. I think the talent is there, the team has shown an ability to teach guys a more complete game, are establishing a strong culture, and have another high end piece to pare him with. If Eiserman is off the board I think the most likely guy to fall to them would be Konsta Helenius who I would also be really happy with.

Thanks for reading, I am planning on doing another one of these for the Flyers second pick in the first round when the Panthers season ends and we know where that pick is.

by hawks27-2