Armed with 4 potential draft picks in the top 42, Mike Grier and the San Jose Sharks have all the ammo to move around the draft board. If they wanted to move up from the 14th pick they received from the Pittsburgh Penguins in the Erik Karlsson trade, how far can they move up? Start with what the Sharks currently have based on a draft pick value chart and how this compares to the 2023 NHL Draft. Then, look at historic trades and how a trade like this has been rare over the past 20 years. Next, look at the three scenarios of trading the 14th overall pick with both of the second-round picks and each of the second-round picks to see how far up the Sharks can go. Finally, which teams make sense to target for a potential trade, and more importantly, which players should the Sharks try to target?
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10 Comments
I'd like to see them trade 14 and 42, move into the top 10 and draft Iginla.
i don't believe there's consensus that Celebrini is a "franchise changing player" all by himself, JD. tbh, Will Smith could end up being the team's 1C even with Celebrini on the team. those two guys centering the top 2 lines would be fantastic!
Thomas Hertl was a #17 pick. Erik Karlsson was 2008 #15.
Sharks need more Quality than Quantity in this draft, no trading back. Trade up if anything and get those Gems 💎 Some really great prospects in the top 15 of this draft , gonna be interesting! Who’s excited for Lottery Day May 7th 🦈🦈🦈
Conversely, if sharks end up with 3rd overall… do we trade down??
I haven't looked into Sound of Hockey's numbers, but based on the numbers posted on The Athletic I went through 18 different trades moving up in the first round and on average teams moving up overpaid by about 10-20% with a couple of outliers (Sharks lost a tiny bit of value when trading back in the Goldobin trade and on the Bystedt trade Sharks came away with about 31.6% extra value, those were the most extreme outliers).
Based on the Athletic's numbers, the 14+33+42 for 5 is an 18.29% overpay compared to the 5.16% on Sound of Hockey. 14+33 for 7 is an 8.45% overpay as opposed to 1.01%, 14+42 for 8 is a 5.97% overpay as opposed to a 3.47% underpay, and 33 + 42 is equal to halfway between 15 and 16. Based on the numbers and the history I think the trade up to 5 is roughly the value that would get things done, the trade up to 7 probably requires throwing in 85 to get roughly the right value (16.90% overpay), trading up to 8 probably requires 85 to get roughly the right value (14.93% overpay), and 33 + 42 is more likely to get more in the early 20s as you suggested than 15/16 that the Athletic's chart considers equal value (20 is a 15.0% overpay, 19 is 9.52%, 21 is 17.95%, and 22 is 24.32%).
Of course at the end of the day it's going to come down to players available vs the team at the slot's list.
PS: Your comment about the Lightning pick possibly varying by 1-2 spots is accurate. It's going to be either 83, 84, or 85 (83 if the Isles and FV reach their conference finals, 84 if 1 of them does, 85 if neither of them do).
Would love to walk away with Celebrini and Buium in the 1st Rd!
Any chance the sharks sign stamkos? Mentor for Smith and Celebrini
It makes no sense to talk about a trade until we see how the lottery shakes out. And then we need to decide who we would want to get with that higher pick and determine if we don't think he will be there at 13 or whatever that pick ends up being. Then, you can decide if a trade is in order. Giving away early second round draft choices just for the sake of moving up makes no sense.
If Parekh or Buium are there at 8/9, we have to trade up for them