**Bio**
Josh ‘cheval de pouvoir’ Anderson was born on May 7, 1994 in Burlington, Ontario. A 6’3″ right shot winger, Anderson was drafted in the 4th round, 95th overall by the Columbus Blue Jackets in 2012. He played his first game against the New York Rangers on January 16, 2014 and scored his first goal against the Carolina Hurricanes on January 9, 2016. Anderson was traded to Montreal on October 6, 2020 for Max Domi and a 3rd round pick. Playing for Montreal was a [dream come true for his parents](https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/video/anderson-signed-canadiens-dream-come-true-parents/).
As per [CapFriendly](https://www.capfriendly.com/players/josh-anderson), Anderson played the 3rd year of a 7-year, $38.5M contract with an AAV of $5.5M. He will be a free agent at the end of 2026-27.
He’s also the source of [intense tabarnaking](https://www.reddit.com/r/Habs/comments/o3mw0k/nsfw_happy_tabarnaking_intensifies/) and he’s the [most good looking player](https://a.espncdn.com/photo/2022/1107/r1087454_1296x729_16-9.jpg) in the NHL.
**Basic Stats**
|Season|GP|TOI|G|A1|A2|Total|P/GP|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|20-21|52|16:25|17|4|3|24|0.46|
|21-22|69|17:14|19|7|6|32|0.46|
|22-23|69|16:58|21|7|4|32|0.46|
|**3 years**|**190**|**16:54**|**57**|**18**|**13**|**88**|**0.46**|
Anderson is sure consistent with his 0.46 P/GP! Noteworthy that 65% of his point production comes from goals.
**Point Distribution**
|Season|EV|PP|SH|With EN|Against EN|Total|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|20-21|20|2|1|1| |24|
|21-22|26|3|0| |3|32|
|22-23|25|4|1| |2|32|
|**3 years**|**71**|**9**|**2**|**1**|**5**|**88**|
Most of Anderson’s production is at even strength. For a guy that is all about offence, he doesn’t get a lot of points on the Power Play.
**Rate of production at Even Strength (no special teams, no empty nets)**
|Season|EV G/60|Rank\*|%|EV A1/60|Rank\*|%|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|20-21|1.23|24/393|94%|0.25|337/393|14%|
|21-22|0.83|153/438|65%|0.35|337/438|23%|
|22-23|0.96|91/435|79%|0.45|288/435|34%|
|**3 year**|**0.98**|**81/573**|**86%**|**0.36**|**437/573**|**24%**|
*\** *rank vs all forwards with a minimum of 300 minutes played*
Anderson is in the 86% percentile in terms of goals score at even strength in the last 3 years. He’s not much of a playmaker with only 0.36 primary assist per 60. His current EV production rate would indicate he’s a second line player.
**Advanced Stats – On Ice**
More info on advanced stats terms and concepts: [Beyond the Box Score – An Intro to Hockey Analytics](https://www.nhl.com/kraken/news/beyond-box-score-intro-to-hockey-analytics/c-335471754)
Note: the following results are not adjusted for deployment, quality of competition, quality of teammates, etc.
​
|On-Ice|CF%|Team Rank|xGF%|Team Rank|xGF/60|Team Rank|xGA/60|Team Rank|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|2020-21|51.91|11/13|49.59|12/13|2.3|8/13|2.33|11/13|
|2021-22|45.38|9/15|44.91|6/15|2.37|8/15|2.91|9/15|
|2022-23|43.08|13/17|45.1|5/17|2.91|**1/17**|3.55|16/17|
Anderson’s on-ice results are average at best. He ranks lower than his teammates in almost all categories. He created [a lot of offence this season](https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/replacements/2223/MTL/anderjo94/wrap) with a team high 2.91 expected goal for per 60 minutes (xGF/60). Unfortunately, his offence was offset by poor defensive results (3.55 expected goals against per 60). This season was a quite a contrast compared previous years, so I’m wondering if he was instructed to ‘go out there and score goals’.
Anderson creates some very fun hockey for fans to watch with lots of goals scored *on both side of the ice*.
**Advanced Stats – Goals Above Replacement (GAR), RAPM and Player Card**
When stats take into consideration point production, on-ice stats, teammates, opposition and deployment.
​
https://preview.redd.it/wglqrpxjt2ta1.png?width=1275&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=c85f9acbc29e9c015fe446d94713a67452824a63
The big circles in this visual represent Anderson’s rank among all other players (other players being the small bubbles). He had an exceptional year with Columbus in 2018-19 but he never reached that level again with a steep decline in 2019-20. He had a career low in 2020-21 but has been improving since.
Note: a player’s GAR value needs to be over 0 to be considered ‘above replacement’ (a replacement player is the 13th forward or the 7th defensemen).
​
[Z-score of 0 = league average](https://preview.redd.it/hu8vglu7u2ta1.png?width=1062&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=cf98fd1e87eecb1621a8ef4983dec54725801366)
Why Anderson’s advanced stats aren’t great despite being one of the best EV goal scorer in the league? It’s because the amount of offense he brings isn’t enough to offset the defense. In addition, the xGF/60 bar being higher than GF/60 indicates that while he creates a lot of scoring chances, he lacks a bit of finishing skills.
​
https://preview.redd.it/yx2c0m99v2ta1.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=6827d8ea953b9bdc067feb2cb118dcbd65aa2bfa
Anderson’s percentile rank of 21% indicates that he’s been performing close to ‘replacement level’ in the last three years. Does it mean he’s not worth his $5.5M AAV contract? Maybe not. It might simply mean he’s not put in a context and situation to succeed. His size, speed and even strength scoring abilities makes him a very special player. Perhaps his results would be better on a team with a robust defensive structure or playing with a strong defensive centre.
I would like to point out Anderson’s good performance on the penalty kill (MSL started to use Anderson on the PK after a conversation with a former Columbus colleague who told him Anderson was good. Guys, you could have known that with a $5 monthly subscription to evolving-hockey!).
​
https://preview.redd.it/7p3zcvaux2ta1.png?width=1285&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=f3bca886c85bc8ec1b8fd685f3b3f15120084f76
**Context**
Not much of a story here. Anderson’s deployment is kind of average. He doesn’t usually face top competition but he isn’t sheltered either. 47% Offensive zone start in the last 2 years, which is, again, average.
https://preview.redd.it/qzh4j0cez2ta1.png?width=1075&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=be870c539646b96ba8a0cd389457d4e5571f9e3e
**Summary**
Anderson is a strong offensive player with special goal scoring ability at even strength. Not much of a playmaker. He doesn’t perform well on the Power Play but he’s good on the PK. His poor advanced stats suggest he’s not put in a context to succeed and would (perhaps) benefit from a stronger defensive structure/teammates to offset his less than stellar defensive results.
by MinieC
9 Comments
RFA at the end of his contract? U sure?
Hope you guys find this insightful. If you’re interested in a similar post for another player, let me know. If there’s still interest, I’m going to try to get one post out per week (they require a lot of work!!).
Thanks for posting, very interesting. It kind of confirms what I thought.
Love your content Minie, keep it up
It’s really tough to watch JA. I thought he’d be a Tom Wilson-esque player, but all he’s turned out to be is a play killer. I think he’s an okay middle 6 player, but not at that cap. It’s too bad because with a little more skills coaching and having anything else except the rocks he has for brains, he’d be a solid player
Our perennial Cy Young winner
(because the G – A looks like the W – L record of a top pitcher)
Says a lot that scores mostly on ES opportunities. He creates his own chances of the rush and isn’t that creative when playing slow, playmaker hockey. Cool insights, I think you’re right on the money.
Hot take: I see him getting traded this summer or at the draft.
Thanks for doing these OP. These breakdowns must take a lot of work, but they are super interesting.
As for Anderson, yeah, this analysis kind of outlines why I’m not his biggest fan. He’s a very one dimensional player. He’s one of the best at scoring off the rush, but that’s about it. He’s not a playmaker, doesn’t score on the Power Play and isn’t great defensively. Maybe if he could stay healthy and score 30ish goals it might be worth keeping him, but for a guy who puts up 15-20 goals a year, he’s just not anywhere near worth the contract.