Goaltending defines success in the NHL, but how much is it really worth across a full season? On today’s episode of Locked On Oilers, host Nick Zararis breaks down the numbers behind goaltending value:
What an average NHL goalie season looked like in 2024-25
How league-average goaltending would have changed the Oilers’ season
The value gap between Stuart Skinner and higher-tier goalies like John Gibson & Mackenzie Blackwood
This deep dive puts goalie performance in context, showing how just a few goals saved across the year can swing standings, playoff matchups, and a team’s mindset.
5:06 Average NHL goalie workload vs Stuart Skinner
12:45 Impact of league-average goaltending on Oilers
23:31 Comparing John Gibson to Stuart Skinner
27:36 Mackenzie Blackwood as potential archetype
Edmonton Oilers Goaltending Breakdown | Stuart Skinner, League Average & True Goalie Value
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8 Comments
Connor McDavid is leaving Edmonton now n that is a very true fact now that is not a rumor anymore
Please talk about the Oilers’ goaltending prospects such as Connor Ungar and Samuel Jonsson and how they could very well be nice replacements of Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard in the future.
If the Oilers had won one, would people look at Skinner like they do Corey Crawford?
I feel like I'm taking crazy pills here. I feel like with Stuart Skinner, everyone knows he has average stats. That he's not a terrible goalie. The issue with Skinner has always been twofold: First, he's up and down. Hot and cold. Great and terrible. So his average statistics are an amalgam of fantastic and brutal, which doesnt really give you an accurate idea of his actual on-ice performance. The question before each game is which Stuart Skinner are you going to get. Secondly, he's a goalie that doesn't always make the timely, the needed or the big saves. Bobrovsky may only have above-average statistics in the playoffs but everybody knows Bob can make the big saves when needed and keep the Panthers in the game. It's a critical aspect of Bobrovsky's play that Skinner just doesn't have or at least doesn't exhibit frequently enough.
There's no question, with the poor goaltending the players are forced to play a higher percentage of defensive hockey rather than focus on offense. That instills a lot of frustration in the players, especially players like McDavid and Draisaitl. The coaching staff are pressing the best offensive players in the world to become less great at what they are best at by the constant need for the players to be more defensive because of poor goaltending. With the shortened percentage of offensive time the players have to work twice as hard to score less goals, thus become less effective and increasingly more frustrated. That all leads to dysfunctional play, repeated mistakes and ultimately game losses.
When Blackwood was so bad he was being healthy scratched by NJ, i told everyone he's legit and a worthy pickup. I think the same about UPL. He's legit. I dont know why buffalo would trade him, but if he's available id be all in.
Basic stats. SVP peaked in 2015 @ 915 league wide average. It has dropped consecutively nearly every season and last year was as low as 1995. (901 i think it was?)
911 might be the new high end?
For me, the real problem with Skinner is that he does not make the key saves at the key times. At least, not nearly enough to make a real difference. The number of saves a goalie makes is far outweighed by the number of BIG MOMENT saves he makes. Stu cracks under the pressure more often than not. Period. He is not an ice in your veins, big spotlight game goalie. Never has been, never will be.