Welcome to my NHL deep dive series! Today, we are covering the San Jose Sharks. I’m happy to have Alex Hutton from the Hockey Writers on today to talk to Alex Hutton from the Hockey Writers
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15 Comments
I will say this about Ryan Warsofsky. I think he has a lot of potential especially when he brought the United States their first IIHF title in 92 years.
"why I'm low on Florida, part 3"
I'd give Warso a c- but willing to upgrade if he never puts Goodrow on a powerplay unit again. One thing I would bet on is that we don't have the worst goals for this year, I feel like they are not the worst offence in the league. Especially because the last two years our defense has been so pathetic that we were stuck in our zone much more than we should have been. Adding some puck movers on d is going to lead to a lot more goals this year IMO
Why would people give up on ecklund? He's literally gotten better every season since he was drafted!?
Great breakdown. Definitely will be subscribing to see the rest of the series. I’d say this year is the last true year of “tanking” you figure that by the 26-27 season guys like Misa, Chernychov, Musty, Dickinson, Bystead, Lund, Mukhamdullin are all going to be full time NHLers which will vastly improve the lineup depth and decrease the need to sign these bottom six FA type guys. I would also imagine with a much stronger FA class that year Grier probably starts taking a crack at some bigger names and trading expendable assets to start really filling out the roster with quality players. That’s my optimistic outlook at least.
Good morning,
It's always interesting to me to hear what others who are not fans of the Sharks or people who work closely with the Sharks covering the team think about where we are right now and what the future holds. Thanks for doing this.
I think there are a couple of important things that you didn't discuss or did not feel all too confident in. One is the emergence last season of Collin Graf as a viable middle 6 forward with very good PK abilities he unlocked just last season with the AHL Baracuda. When Graf started the season with the Sharks he did not look great. Graf looked more or less as we had seen him the year before when he signed out of college and spent the last part of the season with San Jose.
When Graf came back for the second half he had made a jump. Not a viable 2nd liner jump but, a solid 3rd liner with outstanding PK ability. Right away Collin's defensive acumen showed up 5 on 5 and really in the PK and as such I expect that he should make the team out of camp as a regular on the 3rd line and a stalwart on the PK. What his development looks like this year is hard to be sure because of the caliber of players he is likely to play with and how he fares in his own development path.
I think it is likely if Collin is able to earn the staff's trust and become a regular on the 3rd line he will score between 10-15 goals (maybe more?) and he and William Eklund will be our top PK pairing. 5 on 5 I think pairing Collin with Wenberg as the 3rd line center will help their defensive capabilities quite a bit. The X factor is who holds down that other wing because while Collin has show some ability to finish I think he is a work in progress there and perhaps he can become a consistent 20 goal man maybe even more? We know Wenberg is reluctant to shoot though he can finish when he does so we need a reliable finisher for the 3rd line on the other wing and hopefully one of those veteran's Mike Grier brought in can fill that role nicely and get between 15-20 goals for that 3rd line. If that can be managed our 3rd line would be a HUGE upgrade over last season's 3rd line.
The other thing I think you might have missed is the development of Shakir M. last season. When Shakir was brought up from the Baracuda about midway through the year for the most part was one of our best defensemen which I realize is not saying a lot considering what last season's blue line looked like particularly after the departure of Wahlman and Ceci.
In fact when injuries and trades decimated our blue line Shakir was playing on the top pairing most nights and earned the trust of the coaches. Shakir seemed to grow and gain confidence and proved to be a very capable defender against the rush particularly 1 on 1. Shakir's length and long reach made him difficult to get around and as a younger guy he moves pretty well even though he is tall.
Offensively Shakir started to show a consistent ability to hold the zone at the blue line, deke guys when they tried to pressure him, stick handle and make effective short to mid range passes to advance the play or create a scoring chance. He also showed he has a decent shot from the blue line and because he skates and defends well he showed he was wiling to pinch and jump up in the play from time to time and I don't remember him making a bad read when he chose to activate.
Is Shakir a top pairing defensemen in the NHL? I don't know yet. Shakir needs to fill out his lanky frame more. I would say if he does not add some muscle to his upper body he will constantly be at risk of getting injured particularly his shoulders. I think Shakir's floor is 2nd pairing and it may be his ceiling when he is older and has more fully developed but, to my mind he is already better in many respects than Mario Ferraro. Ferraro is a better leader, shot blocker and against the boards but, otherwise I think Shakir is better than Mario in virtually all other respects.
Shakir unfortunately broke his collar bone late last season so when he will be ready to challenge for a regular spot this year I can't say. Hopefully it will be sooner rather than later but, there is no need to rush him and risk expose him to further injury if he is not 100% ready to play in the NHL. He will likely benefit from a short stint in the AHL to get used to game play with his repaired collar bone.
The only other players that are realistically going to get consideration to improve this team you mentioned in Misa and Dickenson. We will see what comes of that. Both could make the roster and follow Will Smith in his development path last season and that might work again for both of these talented young players? If that happens it creates a bit of a log jam that Mike Grier will likely have to sort out and might even have to waive one or two of the veteran players he signed in order to accommodate one or both of these guys on the roster.
There are a few other prospects who are getting close to challenging for a roster spot but, don't seem probable to do so quite yet. Guys like Chernashov, Musty, Ostapchuck, Cagnoni. I think in another year or so all of those players will be fighting for roster spots which is a luxury problem to have.
I hope for much but, I keep one foot on the ground. For my part I think in terms of games won. The Sharks led the league last season in 1 goal losses with something like 30. When you add on top the 2 goal losses where we gave up a lot of empty net goals late in games we are in the high 30's in terms of close losses last season.
I think a reasonable expectation is converting 5-10 of those losses to wins. 5 is probably more realistic but, 10 would be the optimum outcome for next years team and that would be a significant step to increase the point total by 20 pts over last season. I think that 10 more wins ought to be the teams goal and a goal within their wheel house to achieve.
If several of the guys exceed expectation then things might exceed that 10 more wins expectation but, I don't think even if several players exceed expectation that we will be close to being a bubble team next season. I agree with you that goal of being a bubble team is probably 2 years out for the Sharks baring unforeseen incidents that could affect that trajectory either negatively or positively.
That's why they play the games right? hahaha Thanks again for the fun look at my favorite team for over 30 years! (Am I really that old? I am hahaha)
Cheers,
Peter St. John
Clovis, CA
We have a fellow tfg fan 😂😂 (I respect it, great series)
Great breakdown.
Dellandra, Goodrow, are liabilities, also we had the Tank commander geogeriv in the pipes. This year I hope we finish 25th-20th, that would be success
Interesting episode and fun to listen to. I am not sure I agree with all your observations as most of them are based on analytics and not a lot of watching Sharks games from my observation.
If find this a lot when listening to podcasts and is why I never comment on other teams. I am a Sharks fan first and foremost and could not intelligently speak on other teams.
I do agree with your thought that the Sharks most likely are a bottom 3 to 5 team, but will not finish last. As GMMG has stated in multiple pressers, the young players like Celebrini, Smith, Eklund and Askarov do not want to stay on a losing team so they need to make progress.
For multiple reasons the Sharks were never going to make a huge leap this offseason (by design) but they needed to improve and I think GMMG did that. It is what this fan was hoping for (even if there were some FAs I wish they would have landed but I am impatient and can afford to be).
Warso and GMMG are doing well in this fans opinion. When GMMG took over, he was told they would not rebuild, just retool. It was not until he got halfway through his first season as GM that he started to rebuild (the Timo trade being the noted book mark of this).
He tried to make it work as that is what I think the owner wanted and IMO, had to prove that it would not. So he did.
I would have like Warso to have played some veterans less (like Goodrow) and further down the lineup, but I understand the reasoning behind it and that he could have had pressure to do just what he did.
He ahs been dealing with a bad roster and not a lot of help in the depth of the organization. The target for him was to develop the young talent rather than winning and I think he did a good job of that. He is a rookie coach in the NHL (the youngest coach) and did make some mistakes in this fans eyes, but overall I think he did well and would give him a solid B.
As to GMMG, I can not see anyone not giving him an A. Going over why will take a while so bear with me. When he took over just before the 20222 draft the Sharks were a dumpster fire at best.
They had 0 prospects of note other than William Eklund, no draft capital (having traded most their picks away for years to continue to try and win), had no less than seven long term albatross contracts for aging players.
The cap was a mess, the roster was a mess, and there was almost zero talent in the pipeline. No FA wanted to play for the Sharks.
So what did he do to earn an A to me in his three plus years?
1 – He took the worst prospect pool in the league and made it the best.
2 – He has one of the cleanest caps in modern NHL history.
3 – He made multiple shrewd moves the has this team improving over the last two seasons (not in the standings but in its quality).
4 – He has vastly improved the prospect development staff over quadrupling it in size and more so in talent.
5 – Has has had consecutively good to great drafts.
6 – Of the bad seven to eight contracts there is one left that he can put on LTIR if desired.
7 – He still has almost 20 million in cap space to play with even though he has (IMHO) improved all aspects of the roster.
8 – The Sharks have added a stadium for their AHL affiliate literally five minutes from their NHL stadium and revamped their practice facility.
9 – He has hired new coaching staffs for all levels of the organization that teach and play the same way. Cohesion is critical in player development.
10 – The AHL team (Barracuda) made the playoffs for the first time in multiple seasons with a better roster expected to hit the ice next season full of top end prospects.
There is a lot more context to those ten points and honestly, there are more points to add, but I think it paints an overall picture of what he has done to turn around this franchise from top to bottom.
There is more to a GM than the talent on the ice. It is within the organization itself that a GM is felt and when reviewing his staff moves, his cap management and other aspects I can not see how GMMG gets less than an A.
Some of it was lottery luck (Celebrini) but there was lottery bad luck as well as he picked fourth in the 2023 draft. Anything other than fourth and he would have had Fantilli, Carlsson or Bedard. I love me some Smith but having one of those three and this team would be even deeper pool than it already is.
Suffice it to say that winning has not been the goal for the last three seasons or so and it should not have been when tearing down a team to its studs.
It is laying a foundation and then building up from that which GMMG has done masterfully. Going into this season he has an improved roster from both the end of last season and the start of it.
He has retained all of his 2026 draft picks (four in the first two rounds and six in the first four). He has a ton of cap space. Moved out only two young players/prospects that in reality had not future with the Sharks. Dumped dead weight while acquiring players that fill needs within the roster and organization.
He needed to add goalie depth (check), he needed to revamp the defense (double check as adding three new defensemen), and he added important pieces to the forward group without (IMHO) blocking the ability of young players from taking a roster spot. Players such as Chernyshov, Misa or Dickinson. All while not having to commit more than two years to any player.
In fact next offseason he is scheduled to have over 58 million in cap space, have just over eight players signed, six picks in the next draft and his NHL best prospect pool intact. he can resign who he thinks fits into his team for the future, sign FAs if he wants, and has ALL of his assets he started with to make just about any move he seems fit.
I am not sure what fans want but rushing a rebuild is not in GMMG's DNA. He has been disciplined and patient. He did not rush Eklund, he has been patient with Mukhamadullin (and it is paying off), he has not rushed Cagnoni or other prospects in the Cuda, has allowed other prospects to mature like Musty (even though it was painful to watch), he took the right path with Will Smith and allowed Celebrini to shine.
He has changed and continues to change the culture in the locker room and has been proactive to fill needs as he sees it (like acquiring Liljegren within weeks of last season starting or signing Orlov this offseason).
Rush and the Sharks are another Buffalo. After drafting Celebrini GMMG could have rushed it a bit and signed bug FAs and go the way of the Blackhawks but he resisted the temptation remained disciplined. In this fans opinion it will pay major dividends.
A real disciplined rebuild is long and painful. There are no short cuts. GMMG knows this and acted like he understands it. He just needs to ensure the roster he is in the process of building through the draft (and some free agency) fits together as it should.
Roster building is something he has mentioned since he took over. He seems focused on it. Like he said, a team is not just made up of Bentleys, it needs some jeeps, trucks and SUVs too.
He has a plan and he is sticking to it. The future is teal.
The Sharks offense does have a lot to be desired, but I think you mentioned it as being by design. I believe there are players added or are on the roster that will be there until their prospects graduate into the NHL.
But I do not think it is as bad as it was last season after the TDL but moving on from some of those players hurt but was necessary. I would add the development of Graf, Askarov and Mukhamadullin to add to Eklund, Celebrini and Smith.
As to players to be excited about. Before his injury Askarov looked good in his starts. Hickups? Yes, but overall he's an exciting player.
Graf needed his time in the AHL, but once he came back he was a good middle six defensive winger. I think his offense will pick up next season.
Muk was playing his best hockey as a professional before his injury (as Peter St. John mentioned) and was playing solid second pair minutes (top pair in some games). Another player to be excited about.
As to your comments on Eklund. No Sharks fan or any of the management had given up on him. He's been developing nicely over the last couple seasons. Keep in mind this is his second NHL season. It would be nice if he would shoot more, but as he needed more help with his linemates in the past, I think his offense will flourish.
But no one has given up on him in Sharks territory. Like you said, he is not talked about enough and we all love him here.
I agree with the idea of adding Misa to this group in the future. I hope to see Smith on the wing with Eklund and Celebrini as they showed chemistry last season. But for next season, the stated plan is to have Smith at center.
So, I expect to see the "70's line" back together to start the season with Smith centering either the second or third line. Who is on his wings is a mystery as of now.
I expect the other middle six center to be Wennberg as the Sharks did not get another forward I think can take a middle six center position. It was the one forward slot I wish they could have done better filling.
An insurance policy if Smith can not handle the center slot.
And you are so, Smith is a defensive liability right now which is why I think they needed to get an insurance defensive center that could play wing alongside him. Moving Wennberg there might help but leaves a hole I do not think they can fill in the other center position next season.
The Sharks defense did get a major overhaul and I agree that he raised the defense to a higher level than they have had in three or more seasons. As to growth, I can not argue much but there is hope.
1 – I do not have a ton of hope with Liljegren bur you never know last season was his first with the Sharks and he could take a jump in season two.
2 – Muk is going to improve and was improving before his injury.
3 – Desharnais I think will get waived.
4 – IF Dickinson makes the team, I do not think he moves the needle much as he will spend his season adjusting to the NHL pace and speed, not to mention its physical rigors.
5 – I agree with your thoughts on Ferraro for the most part BUT I am hoping that Ferraro gets less minutes making a greater impact as he plays down the lineup where he should be.
6 – Orlov is what you said but I would say he is possibly the best defenseman the Sharks have had in three to four seasons. Even though he is older.
7 – Klingberg is a player that CAN BE better than his last few seasons. If he is right when he said in his latest Sharks presser about his injury being healed he will be better than last couple seasons. Not what he was when he was in Colorado but better.
8 – Leddy is interesting and if he was injured last season and the injuries were part of the reason that he regressed as much as he did, it might be possible that he is better this upcoming season than last season.
9 – Both Cagnoni and Thompson are wild cards and should not be discounted. Either could impact this defensive unit for the positive. Either at the start of the season or as the season progresses.
Like you mentioned, GMMG infused the defense with players that they needed with specific skillsets. Their main problem was moving the puck out of their zone. And adding Klingberg, Orlov and to a lesser extent Leddy helps them in that area.
It also should help with the offense. Either Orlov or Klingberg will help with the PP for sure since they traded Walman they have had no one for that. Their defense in general should be better and IMHO they will get better goaltending than what they ended their season with.
Actually, Leddy is better or should be better than Ruta and Desharnais so as a sixth or seventh defenseman he was a good get and improves the defensive units depth.
I think your assessment with the defense overall is fair and my only thought is the same as with the forwards. I do not think they were acquired with the sole purpose of moving them at the TDL.
As I have commented before, GMMG said he is building not tearing down. To me that means holding onto these players for the season unless something like the following happens:
1 – A young players earns NHL time.
2 – Injuries put players on the IR list for a time.
3 – An offer that is too good to pass up for a player or players.
I do not think GMMG is moving many players at the TDL unless the team just craps the bed. The young players like Eklund, Smith, Askarov and Celebrini won't stay long for a team that continually is selling at the TDL. Not for McKenna or any other prospect.
Special teams should get better and I agree with your thoughts on this.
Collin Graf will almost certainly make the team
I think the Sharks are going to be better then the Hawks