>Of the 2024 restricted free agents, the player who seems closest to an extension is Rasmus Dahlin. The 23-year-old is coming off a three-year deal that carried a $3 million cap hit, signed by then-general manager Jason Botterill.
>So now’s the time for a long-term deal.
>Kevyn Adams has signed a handful of long-term deals since taking over as general manager, but none have had an outrageously high cap hit. If anything, it feels like Tage Thompson’s $7.1 million AAV has been an internal cap of sorts. But that limit probably doesn’t apply to Dahlin — his actual salary for this upcoming season is above that at $7.2 million.
>Had his contract expired this year, Evolving-Hockey would have projected an eight-year deal worth a $10.5 million cap hit. While he has another year, this still seems like a fair endpoint. It would be worth 12 percent of the cap in the first year, which would be a little above the Cale Makars and Adam Foxes of the world. It may seem steep but is more a consequence of that bridge deal (which made sense at the time of the signing). But this would stay below his market value, which The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn’s model projects to be around $12 million, on average, over the next seven years, after his current contract ends.
>Adding a contract of that magnitude to the books in Buffalo would be significant, but it’s a worthwhile bet to make for a No. 1 defenseman whose game has stabilized after a slower start. As the Sabres continue to improve, Dahlin should have more support, which should keep his value high to match that salary as the contract ages.
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>#Elias Pettersson, Vancouver Canucks
>Elias Pettersson’s the most pivotal piece in Vancouver, so it makes sense why management would want to have a contract done sooner rather than later. Unfortunately for the team, the player isn’t in a rush to extend — he put talks on hold while preparing for the season.
>While this is at the top of the priority list for the Canucks, there’s still more than enough time to hammer out an extension. The big question is what that next deal might look like, granted the player wants to stick around.
>Once Petterson’s current contract expires, he projects to be worth a market value of about $14 million, on average, over the next seven years. Going a step down to that $12-13 million range, since as an RFA, he probably won’t hit that number, feels fair. It would keep him in a tier with other franchise cornerstones, like Auston Matthews, Nathan MacKinnon and David Pastrnak.
>It’s a high price — one that Pettersson’s earned — but it goes to show just how much costs can rise after a bridge. That’s not all that may strain the Canucks here; the fact that they handed such a major contract to a secondary player like J.T. Miller before their core pieces were locked up long-term is a backward way of cap construction.
>The term is a question too. While a long-term deal seems like the most likely based on the fact that he already went short-term, and most star players take the maximum, there’s no guarantee here. Pettersson could follow in Matthews’ footsteps and opt for a short-term deal to avoid over-committing to a team that’s struggled to move forward and maximize his earnings that way.
1 Comment
>#Rasmus Dahlin, Buffalo Sabres
>Of the 2024 restricted free agents, the player who seems closest to an extension is Rasmus Dahlin. The 23-year-old is coming off a three-year deal that carried a $3 million cap hit, signed by then-general manager Jason Botterill.
>So now’s the time for a long-term deal.
>Kevyn Adams has signed a handful of long-term deals since taking over as general manager, but none have had an outrageously high cap hit. If anything, it feels like Tage Thompson’s $7.1 million AAV has been an internal cap of sorts. But that limit probably doesn’t apply to Dahlin — his actual salary for this upcoming season is above that at $7.2 million.
>Had his contract expired this year, Evolving-Hockey would have projected an eight-year deal worth a $10.5 million cap hit. While he has another year, this still seems like a fair endpoint. It would be worth 12 percent of the cap in the first year, which would be a little above the Cale Makars and Adam Foxes of the world. It may seem steep but is more a consequence of that bridge deal (which made sense at the time of the signing). But this would stay below his market value, which The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn’s model projects to be around $12 million, on average, over the next seven years, after his current contract ends.
>https://imgur.com/W38Spsj
>Adding a contract of that magnitude to the books in Buffalo would be significant, but it’s a worthwhile bet to make for a No. 1 defenseman whose game has stabilized after a slower start. As the Sabres continue to improve, Dahlin should have more support, which should keep his value high to match that salary as the contract ages.
___
>#Elias Pettersson, Vancouver Canucks
>Elias Pettersson’s the most pivotal piece in Vancouver, so it makes sense why management would want to have a contract done sooner rather than later. Unfortunately for the team, the player isn’t in a rush to extend — he put talks on hold while preparing for the season.
>While this is at the top of the priority list for the Canucks, there’s still more than enough time to hammer out an extension. The big question is what that next deal might look like, granted the player wants to stick around.
>Once Petterson’s current contract expires, he projects to be worth a market value of about $14 million, on average, over the next seven years. Going a step down to that $12-13 million range, since as an RFA, he probably won’t hit that number, feels fair. It would keep him in a tier with other franchise cornerstones, like Auston Matthews, Nathan MacKinnon and David Pastrnak.
>https://imgur.com/Ea3SIrG
>It’s a high price — one that Pettersson’s earned — but it goes to show just how much costs can rise after a bridge. That’s not all that may strain the Canucks here; the fact that they handed such a major contract to a secondary player like J.T. Miller before their core pieces were locked up long-term is a backward way of cap construction.
>The term is a question too. While a long-term deal seems like the most likely based on the fact that he already went short-term, and most star players take the maximum, there’s no guarantee here. Pettersson could follow in Matthews’ footsteps and opt for a short-term deal to avoid over-committing to a team that’s struggled to move forward and maximize his earnings that way.