Parayko:
Contract: $6.5M x seven years
Surplus Value: -$35.9M
Positive Value Probability: 15 percent
There was a time when Colton Parayko was one of the best defensive defensemen in the world, a key cog in St. Louis’ 2019 Stanley Cup victory. Those days feel like they’re in the rearview mirror now as Parayko has logged a lot of hard miles for the Blues and has entered his 30s.
The issue is that in order for Parayko to be worth his $6.5 million, he needs to regain his elite defensive form. He can still get the puck out cleanly, but he’s not as effective in that realm as he once was and he’s taken a big step back when it comes to defending the rush. The Blues need to see improvement there because it’s likely not going to come from Parayko’s offensive game anymore.
That’s in the short term. The bigger issue is in the long term where Parayko has seven years left while already showing immediate signs of decline. Even if Parayko finds his game in the immediate future, it’ll be difficult for him to maintain that for the life of the contract. It’ll certainly help, it just may not be by enough.
The big question might just be where Parayko can figure things out, because it doesn’t look likely in St. Louis. Not with the Blues’ current trajectory and not with the lack of support on the blue line. Parayko still has name recognition and it might be in St. Louis’ best interest to cut ties while he still holds some league-wide cachet. His reputation might be appetizing to a contending team that saw Hampus Lindholm’s recent resurgence in a better environment.
Parayko isn’t as impactful as Lindholm was at the time, but the right fit could be exactly what he needs to return to form. It doesn’t feel likely he’ll find a way off this list as a member of the Blues, but it could be possible somewhere else.
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Schenn:
Contract: $6.5M x five years
Surplus Value: -$20.4M
Positive Value Probability: 15 percent
Last season was tough for the St. Louis Blues. After a somewhat surprising resurgence in 2021-22, everything came crashing down in 2022-23. Part of the fall was the further unravelling of Brayden Schenn’s game at both ends of the ice. Schenn has gone from a once reliable two-way, second-line center to an empty-calorie scorer with major defensive deficiencies.
On the surface, it’s easy to think everything is just fine with Schenn. He scored 58 points in 62 games in 2021-22 and followed it up with a 65-point season last year. That’s solid for a second-liner.
The issue is that despite being a solid scorer, the Blues get badly outchanced with Schenn on the ice to the tune of 45 percent of the expected goals in 2021-22 and just 41 percent last season. Both were well below the team average with most of the problem stemming from Schenn’s inability to suppress chances against. That wasn’t a huge issue in 2021-22, but the good fortune ended last year as Schenn’s defensive numbers became even worse. That led to Schenn only being on for 46 percent of the goals.
For Schenn, it’s a matter of reigniting his defensive game, which should in turn help create more chances the other way. His defensive game has been in steady decline since the Stanley Cup win and that’s a troubling trend considering how much thinner the current version of the Blues is. Schenn is a player who needs support and that’s something the Blues lack.
Maybe a bounce-back is in order, but the even larger issue stems from there being five years left on Schenn’s deal. That’s a troubling amount of term left for a 31-year-old who is seemingly in rapid decline.
by STLBooze3
11 Comments
Positive? Sanheim is #7, so if we woulda traded for him we’d be on the hook for 3 of the top 10!
These stats will either improve severely by this time next year, or get much much worse. There’s no way this trend holds.
I’m going to give this entire batch a mulligan especially with the colossal defensive collapse last season. We’ll see what it do around Christmas
Out of curiosity, who was 1?
It’s so fucking easy to say in hindsight, but I wonder if there’s a timeline where Dunn is 5% better in 2021 and the coaching staff are 5% better about communicating with him/enabling him to be at his best. I think he could’ve been an effective complement to Parayko.
It’s not fun to see two of our players in the top 10 of a list like this, plus Krug as HM, but at the same time, it’s not a death sentence. Faulk was here two years in a row, and now he’s fair value for his contract.
This might make sense in a vacuum, but Schenn’s defensive numbers are part of a larger issue with the Blues. We all know this. I’m not saying he’s 1st or even 2nd line center quality, but he performs well as a winger or 3rd line center and displays the most captain-worthy leadership qualities on the ice. I know this is all based on an analytical model, but I find it hard to believe anyone actually believes Schenn has the 6th worst contract in the entire league.
Idk I’m surprised to see Schenn on this list, esp at #6
Now I have to stare at cap friendly for 30 minutes. Thanks.
We all knew the Schenn contract had the potential to go this sour before the ink was dry. BUT I was ok with it because I thought the plan was to keep as much of the 2019 core together. I figured we would probably have a few guys on longer terms just to keep the cap hits down and keep the band together. But since he signed, Tarasenko, Schwartz, Perron, ROR, Bouwmeester, and Pietrangelo are no longer on the team. Brutal turnover. I think this contract is less painful if the Blues had been able to put together any sort of run after 2019. They looked like they could repeat when COVID stopped the season in 2020, but they haven’t been the same caliber since.
The Parayko contract is…woof. Unforced error by DA. You’re gonna sign a guy coming off a back injury to a long term deal a year before you have to? He didn’t look like the same player at all leading up to that point. I white knuckled this one from day 1, because it was a huge risk that he would be the same player that he was. I do think Parayko gets traded next summer. The cap is just hell right now. Too many good players like Tarasenko have been squeezed out because teams don’t have the cap space to fit them in. I think when the cap goes up, there will be more room, and $6.5 million will be a little closer to the asking price for a capable top 4 defenseman. Plus, there’s still an old school element of front office types who salivate over a tall guy with a big shot who has won a Cup. I don’t know that the Krug/Faulk/Leddy contracts will be as attractive to teams. We might be stuck with those for a while.
This is a terrible take article. I read the whole article and there’s players in that top 10 that don’t belong at all and Seth Jones is getting way too much unnecessary hate. Is he overpaid, yes. Worst contract, absolutely not. This article uses analytics that doesn’t account for every factor that needs to be accounted for. Which I get is easier said than done, but no one would say Schenn has a top 10 worse contract in the league. And that’s after one horrendously down year by the whole team. If you asked after the year before, he doesn’t even cross anyone’s mind.
Lets wait to see how this year goes before we start talking about Schenn’s contract. Parayko, yes that’s been known and again this article doesn’t even address why his struggles are the way they are either. He’s played out of his strengths. His defense was what it was, when he was allowed to be more of his natural self which is more offensive, jump in on the rush and in transition type of guy and had a stay at home guy paired with him. Just a bad take article all around here
Pretty shocked Schenn is on the list. Defenseman is kinda funny though. If you’re paring sucks, you both look bad. Not completely the case with Colton, but maybe things will turn around.
Schenn’s contract is going to age like milk and I think everyone knew that.