[https://theathletic.com/4654648/2023/06/30/auston-matthews-william-nylanders-maple-leafs/](https://theathletic.com/4654648/2023/06/30/auston-matthews-william-nylanders-maple-leafs/)
**Matthews:**
The complication is Matthews is not willing to go along with the status quo for players of his ilk – think Nathan MacKinnon – when it comes to his next contract. We’re told he wants to be compensated as one of the best players in the league, a 25-year-old with a Hart Trophy, two Rocket Richard trophies, and multiple All-Star Game appearances.
The rapidly rising cap environment is the key part of that complication.
The salary cap might be the most important thing to remember about where this is going. The belief is that Matthews and his agent, Judd Moldaver, want his third NHL contract to account for a cap that should hit $87.5 million in the fall of 2024, when the new deal kicks in, and is expected to only go up from there, as much as five percent annually.
Which means a cap hit figure that will shrink over the life of the contract.
That is why it’s likely they will be looking at a contract ranging between two and five years long. The sweet spot, for both Matthews and the Leafs, may be a five-year deal with a record-setting cap hit, higher than MacKinnon’s $12.6 million annual average value.
A five-year deal would buy up the entirety of Matthews’ prime, his age-27, 28, 29, 30, and 31 seasons. It could also shatter the previous precedent for these types of contracts. The Leafs could be looking at a number as high as $14.5 million on the cap on a five-year deal.
Which obviously seems high.
But consider the way the cap hit percentage may shrink over the life of the deal as the cap rises:
​
|Year|Cap Hit %|Potential Cap Ceiling (M)|
|:-|:-|:-|
|1|16.6|$87.5|
|2|15.5|$91.9|
|3|15|$96.5|
|4|14.3|$101.3|
|5|13.6|$106.4|
​
That cap hit percentage of 16.6 percent in year one would just about match the 16.7 percent that McDavid scored in year one of his current eight-year deal. (McDavid will get about 15 percent of the cap next season.) But it eventually falls to under 14 percent by that final season.
For comparison’s sake, John Tavares’ $11 million cap hit was worth 13.8 percent of the cap when the Leafs signed him to a seven-year contract in 2018. Even at his absolute best, he’s never come close to Matthews as a performer for the Leafs.
The belief is also that Matthews might consider a seven or even eight-year deal, but only if the deal came with a cap hit that accounted for where the cap is going, not where it is today.
An eight-year deal, for instance, might come with a $16 million cap hit, given how high the cap is projected to rise.
Which, again, seems like a lot.
But by the end of the deal, the cap might be well over $120 million, making for a cap hit percentage of about 13 percent in the final season.
Now obviously a $16 million cap hit in next year’s cap climate would make things difficult for Toronto, which is why bringing the term down for a lower cap hit makes sense for both sides. A lower cap hit will help the Leafs fill out the team around Matthews.
​
**Nylander:**
Nylander’s agent, Lewis Gross, met with Treliving during draft week in Nashville. It wasn’t the only time they’ve spoken about Nylander’s next deal.
This one is even thornier than Matthews.
That’s because a) Nylander has a 10-team no-trade clause that kicks in on July 1, which puts a soft deadline on negotiations for the Leafs and b) seems to be seeking more money than the Leafs are willing to pay.
Nylander wants to be a Leaf. He’s told Treliving and team president Brendan Shanahan as much. He also wants to be fairly compensated, especially compared to his fellow Leaf stars who he’s, arguably, outperformed in the playoffs.
If the Leafs do want to keep Nylander, they need to find a way to make it all work under the salary cap.
But what’s the Leafs’ walkaway number for Nylander? What if Nylander seeks a cap hit in the double digits that pulls him closer to Matthews, Marner, and Tavares? If the Leafs aren’t willing to go there, or even in the range of $9-plus million, will they pivot before that no-trade clause kicks in?
In other words, will they trade Nylander *on Friday*? Is that even possible if you’re doing it right? Or will the Leafs grind on beyond July 1 and risk limiting the pool of suitors if they can’t come to a deal?
Might they consider letting Nylander play out the last year of his current deal, which carries a cap hit ($6.96 million) that currently ranks as the 96th highest in the NHL for next season?
Part of the problem for the Leafs is that Nylander’s camp doesn’t appear to see July 1 as a deadline.
Next July 1, when Nylander’s current deal runs out, is their deadline.
​
​
by malliabu
43 Comments
> The Leafs could be looking at a number as high as $14.5 million on the cap on a five-year deal.
What ever happened to that story that said Matthews wanted to leave some salary cap available for other guys so the team could be competitive?
the pro-labour part of me wants AM34 & willy to push this team and league for all they are worth, especially with the artificial nonsense that is the hard cap.
the leafs fan in me asks why this had to be literally only us that has to deal with this lol
Players over 14% of the cap have not won a stanley cup since 2009 – when Crosby did it, but had the conn smythe winning Malkin on an ELC, as well as letang.
I don’t think its coincidence no one has as you need your roster to be worth more than their cap hits, and the largest contributor to that is your best players. So if all your best players are paid market value, you are very unlikely to win.
It’s time to rip the bandaid off and remake the roster that is less top heavy with four forwards. I love Willy’s scoring and compete level in the playoffs but it’s time for both team and player to move on. Timo Meier provided a perfect comp..sure Willy might be worth a bit more but it’s not by much. Either sign the deal or move on this can’t drag on all summer.
Unironically trade them all and start a rebuild. Get some actual stars with some sense, draft well and try again in 2-5 years.
Fucking trade him. Clearly doesn’t want to be a Leaf
I hate how much of the Toronto media seems to carry water for the players. They must be trying to protect their sources/relationships going forward. There are a lot of bad faith arguments here – like comparing to UFA John Tavares.
Bottom line, the Leafs aren’t winning a cup with Matthews as the highest paid player in the league. Forecasted cap increases, or what another team might pay him don’t matter on the ice. If Matthews gets a number like 14, then what’s Marner and Nylander going to ask for? How are they going to beat a team like the Devils or the Avalanche where the top players already have taken discounts and term to stay?
I just hope this article is mostly speculation.
With Nylander I can at understand his perspective. Why should he leave money on the table when the two guys ahead of him aren’t? It starts from the top not the middle. If anything he has always been adamant of wanting to be a Maple Leaf and has negotiated in good faith.
Matthews is honestly baffling as he is the only top end player thinking liking this. Even this off-season with the knowledge of the cap everyone else is signing 8 year contracts not bridge contracts then waiting for another payday. It’s also not even a true bridge cause he still wants the payday with the less term.
Move marner sign Willy and matthews let’s get this dumpster fire of playoffs over with.
The more I think about Matthews, the more I’m warming up to a smaller term, 4 or 5 years. To one of the points above, a 5 year deals guarantees Matthews through his prime.
Keep in mind, a 5 year deal means we’ve got Matthews the next 6 seasons. That carries him through age 31. There’s just no guarantee these days when a player’s skill will begin to dip. And Matthews already has an injury history. The next wrist injury could really hamper his ability to score.
For example, Nate MacKinnon is locked up for 8 years. And I’m sure the next 5 years of that contract are going to be fantastic. But what about age 33? 34? 35?
We’re seeing it now, sort of, with Tavares. Now to be clear, IMO, JT has done exactly what he’s been paid to do… we all just auto assumed we’d have a cup by now. But yeah, here we are the last 2-3 years of the deal, and you’d realistically probably walk away, if you could.
To me, the 8 year deal makes the most sense for a player coming out of entry level. That’s 8 years through their entire prime.
The cap hit is what I’m really struggling to accept. Typically less years bring the cost down, because you’re not buying up UFA years. So it’s extremely frustrating to think about paying Matthews a huge cap hit for less term.
Fuck they make it so hard to genuinely cheer for them.
I will honestly be disappointed with anything but 8 years for Matthews. You don’t get to be perennial post season disappointments and get to be paid better than the best player in the league at the same time.
But I thought he wanted a contract so the Leafs could build a team around him… Haha. They talked the same talk when they signed the core before. “The cap is going to rise over the length of the contract and the contract will start to look good”. But the cap never went up. And they’re predicting the cap to rise to 120 mill? Wut
Awesome. They’ve taken our team hostage because we’ve been handing out free cheques. 5 years of playoff blunder and we’re now stuck with this.
Gonna be depressing when McDavid takes less than Matthews on his next deal.
Also, didn’t we learn anything about assuming the cap will increase during these short-term high AAV deals? Even if the cap is increasing how they say, our core is still taking all they can out of it and leaving the same percentage to fill out the rest of the team. There’s no way they can de-emphasize the core when they do stuff like this.
Matthews is being very clear here in expressing what is important to Matthews.
TLDR: we’re fucked
Man it sucks when you love the team but hate the players that represent it
I really think this is going to be the end of this fan bases patience with this core. I feel like a lot of fans are nearing a point of saying “screw it, it’s time to start over, rebuilds don’t take as long as they used to.”
Those Matthews cap percentages are fucking gross even in the later years. I really wish he wasn’t such a greedy guy.
Shoutout to Jonas for predicating this whole article on a mistake. McDavid’s cap% in Year 1 of his extension was not 16.6%, it was 15.7%.
The salary cap in 2018-19 was $79.5M and McDavid made $12.5M against the cap (15.7%). The 16.6% number is the price of McDavid’s extension vs. the salary cap when he signed it, in 2017-18 ($75M). If that’s the math we’re using for Matthews’s extension, the project $87.5M cap for 2024-25 is irrelevant, and we should be using this upcoming seasons’s $83.5M, 16.6% of which is $13.86M.
If Matthews doesn’t want to sign an 8-yr extension for $13.86M — hell, let’s round that up to $14M so he gets *more* than McDavid — that’s fine. But *that’s* the applicable calculation.
I think there are three other really relevant points to remember here:
1) Matthews is not as good as McDavid, full stop. He’s got an argument for #2 player in the world, but he is not McDavid.
2) [McDavid took less.](https://twitter.com/TSNBobMcKenzie/status/882674157439275008) He was reportedly signing for $13.25M, but lowered that number to $12.5M to help the Oilers compete.
3) McDavid *also* signed into a year of massive cap growth. The cap jumped 6.00% between the year McDavid signed his extension and when it took effect.
So, taking that all into account, I simply reject the (apparent) argument from the Matthews camp. If the numbers that are being reported here are accurate, it’s an unprecedented contract for an inferior player. Trying to spin it as team-friendly, especially at 3-5 years, is horseshit.
Oh ya and how do you account for the next salary cap binding world crisis?
This would all be mostly fine if Tavares wasn’t on the books. But he’s also the only guy who actually took a discount. Unfortunate.
Matthews argument about the McKinnon deal starting earlier is bogus if he only signs for 4-5 years. Because all of those years would have been under contract (at the same cap limit) as McKinnon. The only way he can argue for higher cap limits than McKinnon is if he signs for 8 years, and then he would have 1 of the 8 seasons at a higher future cap value.
They have every right to ask for these numbers, and I have every right to call them entitled and hope we trade this core for guys that actually want to be here
The more I hear about the demands and personality of these guys the more I’m convinced we aren’t winning anything.
Trade marner
Leaf’s will never win if they keep drafting greedy people.
Yea, I don’t think the team is going to win anything with Matthews eating up an absurd amount of the cap.
It’s a shame; he is not the player or leader people expected him to be.
I realize this is all a part of negotiating, but it’s weird to me that this article seems to suggest that 14M-14.5M for Matthews is “not the end of the world” but 9.25M for Nylander is “TRADE HIM BEFORE JULY 1ST!”
trade all 3 of them. Some GM’s will bite and send us great players and picks in return.
Matthews to Arizona for Keller and Crouse
Marner to Philly for Konecny and Picks
Nylander to Calgary for Lindholm and Zadarov
Let some other players become stars in Toronto.
Have some damn courage, dignity and self respect and move on from this core. Look at what Florida just did on their run with a couple stars and a balanced roster. Look at what Seattle in year 2 with no stars and great work ethic. The world won’t end if you move these clowns. I truly can’t stand them and would ship them out of town today for the best return possible.
So McDavid was 16.7% of the cap in year 1 of his 8 year deal. With a projected 87.5 M cap, Matthews equivalent contract would be 14.6 M x 8. Except we are being told it will be 14.5 M x 5 or $16 M x 8?
Let Matthews walk.
I don’t care.
Matthews past 5 year deal was terrible. One of the worst contracts of all time. There is a reason his contract is a highlight on the front page of his agencies website.
A 5 year deal now honestly might actually be a good thing. There is a lot of injury concern and I also like the idea of him playing for a new contract in years 4 and 5.
if it gets to the point where one of these players wants a huge contract AND this or that coach AND this or that guy kept on the team AND …. i think we’d be better off trading
Willy at 9 for 8 and Austin at 13 for 5. Anything more is too much for either of them.
This is an infuriatingly bad article.
Why are they acting like this is the first contract in the history of the league to be signed with the expectation of a rising cap. Between 05-06 and 19-20 the cap went up on average by more than 5% per year. Every single contract has been signed with the knowledge that the cap is going to increase over the life of the deal and the only hiccup has been an entirely unforseen once in a century pandemic.
A comparison of what Matthews’ contract as a % of the cap might be in its final year compared to what Tavares signed at in his initial year is so utterly meaningless. Guess what, Mackinnon’s contract might be as low as 10% of the cap when it ends. Pastrnak is going to be under 10%. You could go on, and on, and on. The only reason McDavid’s is going to stay high is because of unforseen events. Had the cap followed the same trend it had for the decade+ prior to his deal, he’d be looking at about 11% in his final year. Author is also mistaking the cap hit % of McDavid’s deal when his extension was signed a year early (16.7%) with the cap hit % in the first year of the contract (15.7%).
Why is it that every other player in the league seems to be able to get a reasonable deal done in line with peers while we’re expected to perform quantum physics to justify these guys? He shouldn’t be making anything more than $12.5m, anything over $13m is simply an atrocious contract and I’m not going to bend over backwards to pretend its not.
Edit: And I say this mostly toward the author, not the player. Until the deal is signed, I’m refusing to believe this nonsense.
Matthews is not as good as Mackinnon and should be paid as such. Mackinnon can take over games and has won a cup. McDavid, Drai, McKinnon are in their own class.
Cons: AM is a streaky scorer who pouts when he’s not playing with one of the best playmakers in the game and has durability issues. He also straight up sucked against Florida. Not sure he has that dog in him.
Pros: He’s got a real nose for the net, plays a two way game, large offensive talented centres are very hard to find, elite shot, all around elite player,
Worth top money for sure. But he shouldn’t be the highest plaid player of all time.
Just do a 3 year deal for Matthews and renegotiate then. If he leaves in his 30s, whatever you would have had 11 years of his best years to win with him. If it’s 3 more first round exits then you probably need to move on anyways.
Nylander, trade him now. Marner is better and Nylander will be coming off his sweet contract and not worth paying that high when you already have Marner. Reallocate that money to the Blueline or a different type of forward.
Well, this sounds terrible
Fuck em both. The Toronto hockey market is toxic in every way. Fans want players like MacKinnon, etc that understand it’s not just all about them. Players want it to be all about them. Coaching is uninspired and lacks any kind of creativity. Ownership is just getting bent over by players and in turn is bending over the fans. I’ve been a leaf fan for 23 years – really losing any and all hope of a cup ever coming back to Toronto. It’ll just be where old free agents go to make their pay day and never deliver anything. I don’t give a fuck how many times Matthews wins the regular season MVP award, means fuck all, no one will remember you for that, people remember players who win cups.
What a dogshit attitude from Auston.
Trade him. Not even fucking joking.