Assuming the season is done for the Sabres, can Skinner find his scoring touch next season? Does he ever justify the 9 million dollars a season price tag?
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32 Comments
Im not a buffalo fan but if he was on my team with that contract I would want 30+ goals every year. That’s not realistic with Skinner
Not a Buffalo fan, but I think that if Skinner somehow managed to score 30+ goals and 60+ points every year, while it wouldn't justify 9M contract, it would make people look away and focus on other issues. Because at that point he would only be overpaid by like 2M. Right now it's rough. And no, I don't think he can maintain that production.
Preface: I'm an analytics guy that follows the OIlers. Those who like analytics & the OIlers, my Twitter handle is @Waltlaw69. I tweet mostly about the OIlers, but also about the NHL in general.
When I look at goal-scoring rates, I focus on 3 things:
1) separate 5v5 from PP; harder to score at 5v5 & so more indicative of scoring talent
2) shooting%, especially career shooting%, which I view as the player's sh% mean
3) shooting rate, specifically, shots & unblocked shots per hour
Skinner's 5v5 career sh% is about 10%. When he scores at a rate considerably above that (e.g., 18/19; 13%), I expect him to regress toward his mean shooting% (10%) the next season.
Below, I'll show his sh% & his goal-scoring rates/hour for each season. (He shoots at a rate of 14.5 unblocked shots/hour. This shooting rate doesn't vary too much from season to season, unlike sh%). This hourly or per 60 minutes rate controls for games played so we can compare across seasons.
10/11: 15.2%, 1.33 goals/hour
11/12 : 10.2%, 0.99
12/13: 5.9%, 0.68
13/14: 12.3%, 1.20
14/15: 7.3%, 0.77
15/16: 9.8%, 1.03
16/17: 12.6%, 1.39
17/18: 8.5%, 0.95
18/19: 13.8%, 1.34
19/20: 9.52%, 1.06
Most seasons he's bouncing around his career average; up one season, down the next, up the next. Goal-scoring tends to be like that; variability between seasons, but over the long haul, it evens out.
19/20 is pretty much his career average shooting%; that's "true" Skinner. His unblocked shots/hour was also career average: 14.5. So why was his scoring down? Zero power-play goals in 140 min! That's some really bad luck but it happens in goal-scoring. He's normally shooting 12% (career avg) on the PP. In any other season, he would have had 3-4 goals on his 29 shots.
If you want to see this in totals, a typical Skinner season at 5v5 is 20 goals on 200 shots. On the PP, he's scoring 1.7 goals/hour. So at 180 min of PP, that's 5 goals.
Looking at this way, overall, Skinner is a 25-goal scorer, +/- 5 goals to account for goal-variance (i.e., sh% variability).
Over his career, his assist rate is about 0.8/hour (5v5). 19/20 assist rate was abnormally low: 0.4; half his career avg. I would expect that to rebound next season. at 1,100 min, 0..8 hour = 15 assists. So at 5v5, reasonable to expect 35 points from Skinner. On the PP, an average Skinner is 5 goals + 5 assists.
Putting it all together, Skinner is 45-55 point player. However, players begin to decline at 29, so we've already seen peak Skinner. (Yeah, he's overpaid.)
Obviously, I have too much time on my hands with this COVID-19 hanging over us. I collected my data from evolving-hockey.dot.com.
People love to talk about how the Leafs being overpaid but this Skinner contract is downright atrocious. Just add it to the long list of Buffalo's problems. Actually, write it down in the book
I would hope so.
I am a Carolina fan and the last year he was with them he was on the 3rd line. Like other people have said he needs to play with other quality players and he needs and get lots of ice time. If he isnt getting those his effort will sag.
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NHL maybe history. Going into a depression
and what do you think? will he hit 40 again in Buffalo? i think 25 is his normal, over 30 in a good year should happen again. no 40 anymore.
As a Sabres fan if management pays him as a premier goal scorer they need to play him with Eichel.
He would have to score 40 per year, every year. Maybe if Kreuger would put him back on Eichel's line, he'd have a better chance of doing that. I feel like that's a big reason why he was so bad this year.
As a Sabres fan I believe that for Skinner to be even close to being worth that contract he has to get between 35-40 goals and between 60-65 points because when he had those numbers we chose to pay him, so I believe that in order for that contract to be worthwhile he has to put up those numbers. Also one of the main reasons why we almost had to keep Skinner was because of the Chris Drury and Daniel Briere situation that still haunts Sabres fans. The fan base would have flipped out if we let another star player walk for nothing.
The only way that contract gets justified if he scores 30-35 goals and gets 70 points and be a key player for the Sabres that helps buffalo get to the playoffs and scores some goals in the playoffs
The only way he could justify that contract in my opinion is if he is at least a 40 goal, 65-70 point from 2020-2021 and on. Don’t @ me.
This season is why I made fun of my coworker who thought resigning Skinner was a no brainier. Too streaky for the cost, poor Buffalo.
I think I'm glad Leafs have their high contract players and they aren't older and as streaky
As a sabres fan…give me consistency! That's all I want! A consistent team and players as well.
Could the oilers offer puljujarvi and neal for skinner ? Or is that overpaying? I mean neal is bought out at 2 mil so is skinner really done or does he need McDavid?
Skinner is best describe as a icy hot
If it was me Skinner would've got 9m with cap bounce structure his cap lower at the end
Buffalo should have moved Skinner at the 2019 Deadline, it seemed obvious even at the time he was having a Career year and they would need to overpay to keep him.
I love how all these people say in the comments well if he was playing with Eichel he would score.. Bottom line is if you're a 9 million dollar player you shouldn't need a certain player to be effective.. You should be able to play with anyone and contribute.. Skinner is trash he's a liability on defense and he's reckless trying to make plays leaving his teammates hanging out to dry
Would you rather have one powerhouse line, and three other garbage lines? or three Mediocre lines? Take your pick Sabres fans
He has to hit 40 goals a couple more times and put up 60+ points to make that contract look good
I'd like to see you analyze the goals players score against good teams vs bad teams. People used to say panarin would feast on poor defensive teams and was invisible against good teams. What about skinner or even ovechkin?
no i don’t think he’ll ever live out the contract. i think hes great but hes never even hit 70 points, hes not worth 9 mill
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David W Glavin
Burnaby BC
I think he would have to get 40g and 70p to justify his contract. As a sabs fan, I knew we were going to have to over pay him.
Good video but Does Shannon realize the sabres won the presidents trophy and made two eastern conference finals since the leafs last won a playoff series? Or this century? In his review videos last summer he said the sabres haven’t been relevant since they had hasek? Did he forget about that juggernaut 300ish goal powerhouse? Lol
Sure they’ve had no success though this decade I get that . They improved 16 points last year but no one cares about that.
Skinners contract sucks. I hated it when it happened but if he can be a thirty glial guy most years with Sixfy points and a couple forty goal ones should be solid or a clutch player in playoffs should they ever make it
I told people last year eichel helped him insanely and people kept saying nah skinners always been a good scorer yes he’s been an inconsistent sniper but he had no goals last year until he got out with Eichels in the seventh game and he got a hat trick in his first ever game with jack.
We wouldn’t mind even if you were picking on us. Cause this is a shit storm of a team
He went from a good guy and player and a consistent goal scorer to an underachieving, overpaid guy who's gonna eventually be bought out when he signed that contract.he was already rich and now he will be remembered for this deal.
The answer is no…