The Buffalo Sabres Can’t Be This Good…But They Are!
The Buffalo Sabres might be the best team in the Eastern Conference and that makes no sense.
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9 Comments
Obviously, this kind of run for the Sabres is not going to last forever, but your logic is twisted in saying that they’re not going to be a good team in years to come. What you’re not taking into consideration is that the Sabres are one of the youngest teams in the NHL and that they have had a lot of injuries this year. As the team grows, they will get better, and as they get healthier, they will become more efficient. The biggest issue for them going forward is going to be the salary cap and whether they can resign Alex Tuch or not.
Advanced stats are like the Bible you can cherry pick it to suit any argument. Devils management is big into analytics, that is working out great………….
While it’s probably true that the Sabres are over performing at the moment I don’t think they are as fraudulent as you seem to think.
Both Lyon and UPL have been great this year which most likely points to their defense helping the goalies gain better results.
But more importantly the Sabres have been one of the better finishing teams for a couple of years now outperforming their XG. Their offense is usually signified by them overpassing and looking for perfect opportunities which in turn bumps up their shooting percentage.
The danger of analytics and thinking they are the "end-all, be-all" is that it misses things like "Not all high danger chances are the same". The Sabres high danger chances are often a result of their exceptional use of the High Cycle Game which turns in-zone possessions into mini odd-man rushes frequently INSIDE the zone, and along with that, also opens up wide open cross ice passing lanes that are incredibly hard for a goalie to get over on because they are very rarely seen in the way the Sabres utilize them so frequently. In addition, the Sabres are not just standing still in that zone; they are often attacking with speed, capitalizing on those mini odd-man rushes. Basically, they often look like they are on a power-play even at even-strength with the way they are able to create free space and extra numbers in those areas, whle the defense looks like the Keystone Kops chasing them around. This makes their "high shooting percentage" really not that surprising, considering this is one of the most offensively gifted rosters in the NHL, top to bottom. In terms of goaltending, Lyon and UPL have both been really good, but it starts with them rarely having to make a 2nd save because the defensemen are clearing the net, tying up sticks, blocking shots or deflecting pucks, and they also have clear views of pucks most of the time, which makes saving them easier. Sometimes you just have to accept that Analytics is limited in what it can tell you and stop trying to make it into some all-knowing thing, when it is pretty far from that. Essentially, analytics is most valuable when it tells you something different than the eye test. Anyone who actually watches these games knows the eye test tells you this is a very good team, regardless of what analytics says. No team is going to go 29-5-2 over a 36 game stretch if they are "not that good". It's simply not possible. This is you working into 10 OT's to try and find something that isn't there, just using analytics.
Sounds a little salty. The reality is the team is really good. Analytics aside, the Sabres are big, young and fast. The team speed ranks up with the fastest teams in the league, like Montreal–only Buffalo has more size than the Canadiens. The play a style of positionless hockey, that most teams can't play, because of the speed and versality of the Sabres defense. Yes, the shooting percentage is high, because the Sabres (often to their fans angst) look for the perfect pass instead of shooting the puck. Watch them. They eye test tells a different story than simple, or advanced, analytics.
Analytics are a useful tool but sometimes u gotta account for magic lol
What's better, expected goals or actual goals scored?
They were terrible? They were .500 when Adams got fired.
The whole analytics thing is ok as a starting point as long as you remember a couple things. One, its NOT always accurate. 2 of the last 9 cup winners had xgf UNDER 50% for instance. And at the moment, Nashville, LA, Ottawa, Washington, Columbus and Florida have better xGF% than Buffalo. NONE of those teams is currently in a playoff spot. And the Sabres have 10+ more points and 7+ more RWs than every single one of them and is in first place in the division and chasing first in the east. Ottawa and Tampa are 3 and 4 in xGF% this season. The sabres are 4-0-1 against them this season head to head. At some point we have to consider that the analytics are missing something. Buffalo is 30-8-2 in its last 40 games. Thats almost a full half season. Its the best record over that span in the league. Thats not a fluke or a short term anomaly or a simple hot streak. Its consistent sustained elite play.