the quirk in the comparisons to last season is that the Sharks got meaningfully worse over the course of last season. That's what happens when you part with your top d-man, top goalie (or 2), your 2nd best forward, top +/- guy, top face-off guy. Agree opening night roster should be better than last season, but we'll see how it all goes with injuries. After all, a decent chunk of the starters are no in their 30's. And then it'll come down to how much the young players struggle when given their chances.
All in all, I'm good if a year from now, they've added Keaton Verhoeff (assuming he's what people think he is) to the pipeline. After this season,, internal growth takes over and that'll go in leaps and bounds.
Management in-season will count for a lot in the tank vs no tank. Granlund and especially Blackwood were traded at times when the team was looking passable and it was an act to kneecap the team’s record well before the deadline. It worked.
Veterans like Skinner, Wennberg, Ferraro, Leddy, and Klingberg can be held until the deadline if it’s not the intention to tank, and by then some young players will be more ready to step in. This is just normal for non-playoff teams trading veterans. But if these players get traded early, it’s a tank job.
BTW, the Sharks hit the salary floor but if they want to trade off veterans they still need that Carey Price contract. That will be an indicator of some intentions.
Hey Professor, I think on paper the teams compare favorably. It could be argued that either team was/is slightly better but, I would suggest that any improvement is likely marginal unless something unlooked for happens either positively or negatively. If some one exceeds expectations dramatically (say Maclin puts up 80 pts or Will Smith puts up 65 pts or we suffer a key loss to injury). I think in short that the margin for error with the Sharks these last few seasons and this one upcoming is very slim and therefor it is possible we could be anywhere on the map in terms of negative outcomes, positive outcomes or status quo. In short there is not enough difference from what I can see (I am legally blind hehe) to justify great optimism. I hope for much but, realistically have to acknowledge the challenges we face.
My biggest concern of late is what I expressed to you on your last video and that is with all the veteran players signed to short term deals this team kind of smells like the last two where our results are middling and so we become sellers at or near the trade deadline and Mike Grier starts selling off as many of these veteran assets as he can for whatever return he can get. It just does not seem like Grier to let a veteran on an expiring contract play out their contract and let them walk for no return. I am having difficulty imaging that scenario. If I am wrong I will be the first to admit it.
The other overriding thought I have had I also expressed in your last video and it occurred to me when Mike Grier was having difficulty in attracting any of the several quality NHL players who were available via trade or free agency. I suspect Grier's difficulties stemmed from two things: 1) The return asking price for traded players was too high (Musty, Churneshev, Dickenson, Smith, Eklund, etc). or
2) Most quality players who were available have partial or full no trade clauses and you can bet that the Sharks on all those lists which means we have to take the next step largely on our own steam.
We have to get to the Anaheim/Utah phase of our rebuild where quality NHL players can see that we are not basement dwellers and have a legitimate chance to take the next step and become a perennial play off team like we used to be. Once we reach that level where the team is solid and ready to explode I think it will be possible to attract a quality NHL player. Until we stabilize the ship and stop all the leaks and become more seaworthy I just am not sure we are likely to find many Tafoli's. Hell even Granlund was not willing to come back for what we were offering.
I think we have to do the heavy lifting mostly on our own for the most part so we will have to tighten our belts and strap in because it's likely to be thin fare for another year or two and a bumpy ride to boot. I hope like hell I am wrong. hehe
Even if they breach 25 wins, it would still mean a running for one of the worst teams. Which is fine! As long as the compete level overall continues to get better year over year.
Statistically, Gaudette was about as lucky last year as Dellandrea was unlucky, so maybe that balances out this year. Dellandrea could improve a lot just by cutting out the offensive zone penalties.
Hoping Warso shows more confidence being objective when the vets aren’t performing this season.
The team will be better naturally with the growth of the young guys, but the best case scenario is a jump like the Ducks did last year. Much better, but still finishing in the top 10 in the draft.
I’m looking forward to the post deadline lines: Smith-Celebrini-Toffoli Eklund-Misa-Chernyshov Graf-Bystedt-Kurashev Gaudette-Ostapchuk-Goodrow Orlov-Mukhamadullin Dickinson-Liljegren Cagnoni-Thompson Askarov Ndeljkovic
It’s time to win 30 at least. This 18-19 wins seasons is bullshit now. I’m not saying playoffs but 30 wins has to be our goal or firing has to happen. Enough is enough
Great analysis as always Professor! It's great to see that your not tanking this summer haha. I hope that your summer up in Quebec is going well and it's hard to believe that the start of the regular season is only a few months away!
I actually felt like Ferraro improved significantly towards the end of last season. He even started showing some offensive tendencies. He carried the puck more, and randomly swatted it around the boards in full panic mode less. It wouldn't surprise me if this season turns out a breakout year for him.
I call tanking trying to get 1st oa. Verhoeff is my target this draft, and I have this feeling that McKenna isn't Grier's type of player as skilled as he is but who knows. Even if you did get him I wouldn't be mad trading down for Verhoeff and a '27 unprotected first from PIT for better odds at DuPont for example. But anyway, I think Grier's done a good job finding D men who can help transport the puck for getting Celebrini and Smith more Ozone time. I think this is how you really develop your guys without ruining their mental while still trying to get high picks. There's a difference in going from last place to 25th with a bunch of guys you're planning to flip sooner or later, than last to 25th with a bunch of young guys who're going to be part of your future core. The latter is cumulative, more synergy to be built that'll be crucial in the playoffs, and more meaningful to the team culture and identity. It's coming very soon.
They were -105 goal differential last year, and the next closest was -70.
Basically, they've improved from a "best in class" terrible team to a "run of the mill" terrible team, which should put them between 29th and 32nd…again.
Not tanking, but in the tank for another season. Thus, in '25-'26 I'm looking for youth development, fewer games surrendering 7+ goals, and a good lottery spot.
In '26-'27 I expect to see a jump in the standings, but the real fun begins after '26-'27 when Couture, Vlasic, Jones, Goodrow, Orlov., Karlsson and Gaudette come off the books – approximately $21 million dollars in cap space. So two more seasons of growth/assess what they have.
I watched him in a home game against Edmonton this last season and was SO disappointed. He wasn’t keeping up with anybody and looked absolutely gassed, like 40yo beer league gassed.
We can also highlight back up solutions like Liljegren, Cagnoni, maybe Chernyshov, Misa? Plus we have a one year more experienced young coach back as a world champion. The whole squad is deeper and better geared up IMO.
I think the goal is to improve over last year, but if they do end up bombing no one will shed many tears at another high pick, especially if the one year deals hit and can be flipped for more assets
P1-They don’t need to be a worse team than they were last year. P2-Just the worst team this year. C1-If ya ain’t got a shot at first…work to be last!😎🤣 Keep up the great work🖖
Appreciate the optimism PH! Question, let’s say Misa, Dickinson, Asky and maybe a 4th probably Igor all look good in the NHL this year. You think GMMG puts his foot on thr gas for this rebuild? Maybe gets some big name/s in the next offseason?
With the amount of short term contracts and nobody really signed beyond the next few seasons, I believe YES the Sharks are still tanking. The additions they’ve made this offseason were made with the intent of flipping them at the deadline. So yeah, it’s hard to look at this team and think there’s support being added for the young core.
Tanking? Probably but not in the way they gunned for Celebrini. This team is full of NHL bridge players that help buy time for the Kids on the Cuda, the bridge players also help provide some veteran leadership for the young guns on the team. And if things go well, the said bridge players build trade equity for the Sharks to take advantage of the trade deadline. If the Cuda prospects arent ready, Grier will likely ride a few of the bridge players to free agency. All in all its a huge development year at both pro levels, the fan and media expectations should be at a minimum, like bottom 5 finish minimum.
1: + 2: – – 3: + 4: even: Sturm were injured a lot Top D: ++: Basically Walman = Klingberg (less mobility, better game sense). They get Orlov for free. Mid D: even: Muk >= Ceci. Low D: + Dickinson could cause problems, but he'll hopefully make up for it. G: even: Blackwood only played 19 games, and I think Askarov and Nedeljkovic would be upgrades on Vanecek.
There are less tradeable assets now, and potential callups looks more promising. I expect them to finish 2nd-3rd last. 65 points. 13p improvement. Chicago, Pittsburgh and Boston feels like the contenders. Maybe Buffalo and Nashville too. Pacific looks much better this season. Calgary and Edmonton are the only teams that I would say is not clearly trending upwards. This is actually a blessing in disguise as those matchups have a greater impact on the standings. If they can improve their record against the majority of the teams, then I think that's something that should be put forward as a success, even if they end up finishing last again.
Great video professor! Grier definitely has a very demeanor than previous years. He expressed much more emotion in the desire to improve. When asked about season goals, instead of being vague and saying something like “we would like to show improvement and we will see what happens at the deadline”, he was more specific in expressing that they want to be playing games that matter in March. To me this shows that the sharks will not start off the year tanking, but if the deadline comes around and they are still in last, then he will sell off pieces and tank.
Also I know you dont usually take video requests/suggestions, but it might be cool to look across the league at teams that the Sharks that could potentially pass and what it would take to do it. For example: Imo the two teams that SJ should pass just by being a better team on paper are the Hawks and the Pens. Some teams that the sharks could potentially pass could be Phili, Buffalo, Seattle, Nashville, Boston, or Calgary. Nothing against these teams, they are just teams that I think could bottom out if enough goes wrong. So looking at what would need to go wrong for those teams and what would need to go right for the Sharks could be interesting. Basically to calculate a potential range of where they could to finish in the standings.
I'll be on board no matter what. Rooting for the California Golden Seals as a youth has prepared me. At least the defense corps has upgraded a bit from the abysmal crew that finished the season.
41 Comments
sucks so bad Zetterlund is gone, hate it.
the quirk in the comparisons to last season is that the Sharks got meaningfully worse over the course of last season. That's what happens when you part with your top d-man, top goalie (or 2), your 2nd best forward, top +/- guy, top face-off guy. Agree opening night roster should be better than last season, but we'll see how it all goes with injuries. After all, a decent chunk of the starters are no in their 30's. And then it'll come down to how much the young players struggle when given their chances.
All in all, I'm good if a year from now, they've added Keaton Verhoeff (assuming he's what people think he is) to the pipeline. After this season,, internal growth takes over and that'll go in leaps and bounds.
Management in-season will count for a lot in the tank vs no tank. Granlund and especially Blackwood were traded at times when the team was looking passable and it was an act to kneecap the team’s record well before the deadline. It worked.
Veterans like Skinner, Wennberg, Ferraro, Leddy, and Klingberg can be held until the deadline if it’s not the intention to tank, and by then some young players will be more ready to step in. This is just normal for non-playoff teams trading veterans. But if these players get traded early, it’s a tank job.
BTW, the Sharks hit the salary floor but if they want to trade off veterans they still need that Carey Price contract. That will be an indicator of some intentions.
This defense really blows
Great video
Hey Professor,
I think on paper the teams compare favorably. It could be argued that either team was/is slightly better but, I would suggest that any improvement is likely marginal unless something unlooked for happens either positively or negatively. If some one exceeds expectations dramatically (say Maclin puts up 80 pts or Will Smith puts up 65 pts or we suffer a key loss to injury). I think in short that the margin for error with the Sharks these last few seasons and this one upcoming is very slim and therefor it is possible we could be anywhere on the map in terms of negative outcomes, positive outcomes or status quo. In short there is not enough difference from what I can see (I am legally blind hehe) to justify great optimism. I hope for much but, realistically have to acknowledge the challenges we face.
My biggest concern of late is what I expressed to you on your last video and that is with all the veteran players signed to short term deals this team kind of smells like the last two where our results are middling and so we become sellers at or near the trade deadline and Mike Grier starts selling off as many of these veteran assets as he can for whatever return he can get. It just does not seem like Grier to let a veteran on an expiring contract play out their contract and let them walk for no return. I am having difficulty imaging that scenario. If I am wrong I will be the first to admit it.
The other overriding thought I have had I also expressed in your last video and it occurred to me when Mike Grier was having difficulty in attracting any of the several quality NHL players who were available via trade or free agency. I suspect Grier's difficulties stemmed from two things:
1) The return asking price for traded players was too high (Musty, Churneshev, Dickenson, Smith, Eklund, etc).
or
2) Most quality players who were available have partial or full no trade clauses and you can bet that the Sharks on all those lists which means we have to take the next step largely on our own steam.
We have to get to the Anaheim/Utah phase of our rebuild where quality NHL players can see that we are not basement dwellers and have a legitimate chance to take the next step and become a perennial play off team like we used to be. Once we reach that level where the team is solid and ready to explode I think it will be possible to attract a quality NHL player. Until we stabilize the ship and stop all the leaks and become more seaworthy I just am not sure we are likely to find many Tafoli's. Hell even Granlund was not willing to come back for what we were offering.
I think we have to do the heavy lifting mostly on our own for the most part so we will have to tighten our belts and strap in because it's likely to be thin fare for another year or two and a bumpy ride to boot. I hope like hell I am wrong. hehe
Cheers Professor,
Pete
Clovis, CA
There is such is a wide gap in potential between how good or how bad they could be this season. It will be fun to watch. Thanks Prof!
Even if they breach 25 wins, it would still mean a running for one of the worst teams. Which is fine! As long as the compete level overall continues to get better year over year.
Statistically, Gaudette was about as lucky last year as Dellandrea was unlucky, so maybe that balances out this year. Dellandrea could improve a lot just by cutting out the offensive zone penalties.
Hoping Warso shows more confidence being objective when the vets aren’t performing this season.
I hope we see more Cagnoni and possibly Chernyshov!
The team will be better naturally with the growth of the young guys, but the best case scenario is a jump like the Ducks did last year. Much better, but still finishing in the top 10 in the draft.
I’m looking forward to the post deadline lines:
Smith-Celebrini-Toffoli
Eklund-Misa-Chernyshov
Graf-Bystedt-Kurashev
Gaudette-Ostapchuk-Goodrow
Orlov-Mukhamadullin
Dickinson-Liljegren
Cagnoni-Thompson
Askarov
Ndeljkovic
It’s time to win 30 at least. This 18-19 wins seasons is bullshit now. I’m not saying playoffs but 30 wins has to be our goal or firing has to happen. Enough is enough
Great analysis as always Professor! It's great to see that your not tanking this summer haha. I hope that your summer up in Quebec is going well and it's hard to believe that the start of the regular season is only a few months away!
I’m excited for Mukh this season. I think he steps up
Not rushing in to making moves I don’t consider that tanking I didn’t thank they were tanking last year
I actually felt like Ferraro improved significantly towards the end of last season. He even started showing some offensive tendencies. He carried the puck more, and randomly swatted it around the boards in full panic mode less. It wouldn't surprise me if this season turns out a breakout year for him.
Hell naw!
I call tanking trying to get 1st oa. Verhoeff is my target this draft, and I have this feeling that McKenna isn't Grier's type of player as skilled as he is but who knows. Even if you did get him I wouldn't be mad trading down for Verhoeff and a '27 unprotected first from PIT for better odds at DuPont for example. But anyway, I think Grier's done a good job finding D men who can help transport the puck for getting Celebrini and Smith more Ozone time. I think this is how you really develop your guys without ruining their mental while still trying to get high picks. There's a difference in going from last place to 25th with a bunch of guys you're planning to flip sooner or later, than last to 25th with a bunch of young guys who're going to be part of your future core. The latter is cumulative, more synergy to be built that'll be crucial in the playoffs, and more meaningful to the team culture and identity. It's coming very soon.
They were -105 goal differential last year, and the next closest was -70.
Basically, they've improved from a "best in class" terrible team to a "run of the mill" terrible team, which should put them between 29th and 32nd…again.
Not tanking, but in the tank for another season. Thus, in '25-'26 I'm looking for youth development, fewer games surrendering 7+ goals, and a good lottery spot.
In '26-'27 I expect to see a jump in the standings, but the real fun begins after '26-'27 when Couture, Vlasic, Jones, Goodrow, Orlov., Karlsson and Gaudette come off the books – approximately $21 million dollars in cap space. So two more seasons of growth/assess what they have.
Such an interesting analysis on Smith.
I watched him in a home game against Edmonton this last season and was SO disappointed. He wasn’t keeping up with anybody and looked absolutely gassed, like 40yo beer league gassed.
The best San Jose Sharks 🦈 channel on YouTube. The Sharks will be better but their Stanley Cup will look like Gavin McKenna or a top three pick
Before watching, any games with Dellandrea, goodrow, and Reeves…. you're tanking
We can also highlight back up solutions like Liljegren, Cagnoni, maybe Chernyshov, Misa? Plus we have a one year more experienced young coach back as a world champion. The whole squad is deeper and better geared up IMO.
I think the goal is to improve over last year, but if they do end up bombing no one will shed many tears at another high pick, especially if the one year deals hit and can be flipped for more assets
P1-They don’t need to be a worse team than they were last year.
P2-Just the worst team this year.
C1-If ya ain’t got a shot at first…work to be last!😎🤣
Keep up the great work🖖
How many years is grier gonna get ,before he has to win?
I think the Blackhawks will tank in order to try and get Bedard's cousin Mckenna😂
If they were tanking fully, they would have kept Agent Georgiev.
Appreciate the optimism PH! Question, let’s say Misa, Dickinson, Asky and maybe a 4th probably Igor all look good in the NHL this year. You think GMMG puts his foot on thr gas for this rebuild? Maybe gets some big name/s in the next offseason?
misa celebrini mckenna = dynasty
With the amount of short term contracts and nobody really signed beyond the next few seasons, I believe YES the Sharks are still tanking. The additions they’ve made this offseason were made with the intent of flipping them at the deadline. So yeah, it’s hard to look at this team and think there’s support being added for the young core.
I don’t understand your belief that Liljegren won’t be part of our top 6. He’s likely to part of our top 4 defenseman.
hm, I like the approach of this vid. will be considering your points!
I would love to tank another year and get Makenna
Nobody tanks.
Tanking? Probably but not in the way they gunned for Celebrini. This team is full of NHL bridge players that help buy time for the Kids on the Cuda, the bridge players also help provide some veteran leadership for the young guns on the team. And if things go well, the said bridge players build trade equity for the Sharks to take advantage of the trade deadline. If the Cuda prospects arent ready, Grier will likely ride a few of the bridge players to free agency. All in all its a huge development year at both pro levels, the fan and media expectations should be at a minimum, like bottom 5 finish minimum.
1: +
2: – –
3: +
4: even: Sturm were injured a lot
Top D: ++: Basically Walman = Klingberg (less mobility, better game sense). They get Orlov for free.
Mid D: even: Muk >= Ceci.
Low D: +
Dickinson could cause problems, but he'll hopefully make up for it.
G: even: Blackwood only played 19 games, and I think Askarov and Nedeljkovic would be upgrades on Vanecek.
There are less tradeable assets now, and potential callups looks more promising. I expect them to finish 2nd-3rd last. 65 points. 13p improvement. Chicago, Pittsburgh and Boston feels like the contenders. Maybe Buffalo and Nashville too. Pacific looks much better this season. Calgary and Edmonton are the only teams that I would say is not clearly trending upwards. This is actually a blessing in disguise as those matchups have a greater impact on the standings. If they can improve their record against the majority of the teams, then I think that's something that should be put forward as a success, even if they end up finishing last again.
Great video professor! Grier definitely has a very demeanor than previous years. He expressed much more emotion in the desire to improve. When asked about season goals, instead of being vague and saying something like “we would like to show improvement and we will see what happens at the deadline”, he was more specific in expressing that they want to be playing games that matter in March. To me this shows that the sharks will not start off the year tanking, but if the deadline comes around and they are still in last, then he will sell off pieces and tank.
Also I know you dont usually take video requests/suggestions, but it might be cool to look across the league at teams that the Sharks that could potentially pass and what it would take to do it. For example: Imo the two teams that SJ should pass just by being a better team on paper are the Hawks and the Pens. Some teams that the sharks could potentially pass could be Phili, Buffalo, Seattle, Nashville, Boston, or Calgary. Nothing against these teams, they are just teams that I think could bottom out if enough goes wrong. So looking at what would need to go wrong for those teams and what would need to go right for the Sharks could be interesting. Basically to calculate a potential range of where they could to finish in the standings.
I'll be on board no matter what. Rooting for the California Golden Seals as a youth has prepared me. At least the defense corps has upgraded a bit from the abysmal crew that finished the season.
I wouldn't sleep on Kaspar Halttunen! This guy could be top 6 winger IMO, slotting players down perhaps bumping Delly or Goody out.
If Celebrini was ready for 1c, doesn’t Misa appear ready for a winger spot?