Best Bets for UFC 316 👊 Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley 2 & Pena vs. Harrison | ESPN MMA

Best Bets for UFC 316 👊 Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley 2 & Pena vs. Harrison | ESPN MMA

the UFC is back in New York New Jersey for what’s become an annual trip to the Credential Center and it’s a good one UFC 316 featuring the 135 lb divisions The males take taking place in the main event You got the co-main event Juliana Pena Kayla Harrison all at 135 lbs Two championships on the line Hello everybody Brett Okamoto alongside Ian Parker We are here in the Prudential Center in Newark ready to take on UFC 316 from a gambling perspective I’m excited to do so But before we do we will look back at one of the more strange I think UFC fight night events of all time It’s still technically listed as Barber versus Blanchfield but that wasn’t the fight that we got to see in the main event but we did have some action throughout the night How did we do uh we ended up finishing with a minus two and a quarter units down which drives me nuts because our premium play Gust of Sin and our prop of the night which would have been him to win by TKR plus 165 I strongly believe we would have hit that which would have had us on a profitable night but like you said it was crazy Anything’s unpredictable especially in the sport We move on I love the slate this week We’re color coordinated We’re ready to go
Oh it is a very very nice slate This one has been circled on my calendar for a while and that I am into this Morab Davishi Shawn Omali rematch which I know that some people may have thought Shawn should have gone uh to another non-title fight before getting this opportunity again I’m excited to see what he does with it I have bought into this idea that Shawn is healthy that he has changed his lifestyle that we should see uh some some evidence of that in the octagon but then you got Morav Davish especially coming after what he did against Umar and Nagameov Just two absolutely world class bantamweights Vegas has him at minus 280 Davos That’s pretty big when you consider that these two were about to pick on last time around What do you think of these odds
you know what for me the odds make sense for the reason that Ali has not fought since losing to Morab and Morab did something very special against Umar Nagameov where people someone like John Adak is saying if he wins can he be considered in the GOAT conversation i think it’s a little premature but what we saw Morav do I think his overall game continues to evolve He gets better in the striking Now we talk about Shawn Ali Like you said he’s gotten rid of the distractions almost gotten rid of the Suga persona But Brett my question is and we’re going to see this is isn’t that what kind of got him here he lives in that persona I don’t know if that overall character really exists more than what we believe through social media but it is good to see him taking it seriously because he is a serious fighter He is a very talented fighter However and this is where the big however part comes in I think his kryptonite is Morab I think someone like Morab who could put his foot on the gas 100 miles per hour for 25 straight minutes it showed against Ubar he’s never out of the fight Even when you think he is he can come back and he can absolutely put on a show To your point these odds are very wide So how do we make this playable what do we do here well I don’t have a straight bet in this fight
on either side I’m not taking the money line You know as much as Shawn if you like Shawn plus 230 is a great number If you think he’s going to go in there and you think he’s going to go and snipe Morab you don’t even need to take him by knockout That number plus 230 is fantastic If you like Morab you’re going to go the way that I’m going to do it which is my prop of the night I’m going to go Morab to win by decision I think if he wins that’s how it goes I don’t think this fight’s going to be that much different I don’t see a reason why So those are the two ways that I would play it If you’re going to play it I’m going to take Morab by decision as my prop
Okay so no best bet on the main event here at UFC 316 but we do have a prop of the night We’re taking Morav Davishi by decision to get it done a second time against Shauna Ali Let’s move on to the co-main event It’s Juliana Pñena taking on Kayla Harrison Surprise surprise Juliana Pñena pretty sizable underdog It seems like that has been the story of her career especially in some of these big big matchups that she’s had Plus 500 8 to1 favorite on the other side for Kayla Harrison Any reason that you I mean you’re searching for a reason to take plus 500 or can you just not do it
i I personally I can’t do it And I like Juliana Pena Look she comes to fight She’s tough She’s got good wrestling durability through the roof She’s a dog She’s never out of the fight until she’s legitimately out of the fight And we’ve seen it time and time again I I do think she lost to Rocky Pennington in that last fight And I think if she’s going to struggle against someone like Rocky imagine what Kayla Harrison will do People are going to use the excuse “Oh Kayla’s cutting too much weight.” Guess what she made the weight And when she’s hydrated she’s back to form I have done a lot of Kayla fights This woman never seems to surprise me What she did against Katin Vera showed hey I could still wrestle My striking is getting better Juliana is not a better striker Even though Kayla is not an elite striker Juliana striking is not better where Juliana could win this fight is if she makes it messy makes it a brawl and somehow is able to tire out Kayla But how do you do that when you’re on your back 10 seconds in and you have that athlete on you that specimen of an athlete in Kayla Harrison Brett I’m taking her to win inside the distance We’re getting a very good number It’s been anywhere from – 150 to – 175 I’m willing to take that number I think once Kayla not if but once Kayla gets this fight to the ground she’s going to make a statement We know she wants that fight with Amanda Nunees How do you do that it’s not by winning by boring wrestling decision It’s going out there and putting Giulian away quick causing a lot of damage and making a statement getting Amanda to want to come back and prove a point which Amanda doesn’t really need to prove But for me Kayla inside the distance I think she gets this done
Well it is historical in terms of the odds because if you look at a reigning champion and being an underdog going into a fight this is uncharted territory Julian Pñena a 5 to1 underdog Prior to this you had of course Matt Sarah after he upset GSP big underdog in the second one That Almaine Sterling one was super interesting because let’s I mean Sterling’s career has been kind of defined by this moment where he was losing the fight Jan gets disqualified and then Algerain Sterling comes back and beats him as a plus 320 champion So a big upset there as a champ Will Julian Pena do it again i mean she’s done it as a challenger against Amanda Nunees She can she do it as a champion against Kayla Harrison we will see any any thoughts into just in terms of uh the length of this fight you say that that that you that you believe that Caleb will get it done inside the distance will anything kind of make you sort of a little bit uh nervous as as you watch this fight play out
i’ve seen Kayla go five rounds before with other fighters maybe not to the level Juliana per se There has been another one that was I I think for Kayla if she’s able to control the pace she puts Juliana down she’s on top she won’t gas out If the fight’s on the feet for five rounds Juliana’s running at her with reckless abandon Yeah makes her work That could be a problem I don’t see Juliana not being on her back pretty quick though
So there is uh there was your your pick for the co-main event It’s inside the distance for Kayla Harrison Let’s move to another fun fight Joe Piper taking on Kelvin Gassam We were supposed to see this fight in Mexico It did not happen because Joe Piper got sick at the very last second So here we are again revisiting it at UFC 3:16 Kelvin Gaston looking absolutely locked in And Joe Piper expressing a lot of confidence in this one though How do you see this one going
well we gave this pick out when the fight was supposed to happen No reason to not give it out again Joe Piper over one and a half rounds Why – 380 to -25 Kevin Gastlam has a head made of concrete Never been knocked out Can Piper do it does he have the power yes But Gastlam is going to take the fight to him Gastam has looked better in his last few fights He’s got insane durability And I think Piper knows this win overall is important If a knockout happens I wouldn’t be shocked if it was at the end of round two Plus we need that to happen So we’re going to root for that Piper over one and a half minus 125 Let’s go
Piper has of course expressed uh a desire to be the guy to to be able to knock out Kelvin Gaslin but that is easier said than done So we will see uh if that we can get this one past one and a half for Piper to pick up the win for our best bet Let’s move to another best bet that you got is Vicente Luke taking on Kevin Holland Kevin Holland likes to bounce around weight classes He’s at 170 lbs this time against an actual ranked Vicente Luke but it’s the ranked guy coming in as the underdog What do you think of these odds you know what holland at 170 is very good When he takes it seriously he’s good And for Luke if he can avoid getting cracked early and getting dropped I think the fight the odds get a lot closer I think this fight’s going to go deeper than what the odds say I’m going over one and a half rounds here I think Luke is going to try and clinch I think he’s going to try and utilize his jiu-jitsu We’ve seen that Holland is good off his back to an extent but he can be outg grappled That’s been his kryptonite forever And Luke is a good striker Just I am worried about the damage but we’ve seen him since he’s been back He’s been good over one and a half I think this fight goes deep into the fight
Well it’s one of those fights that’s just absolutely perfect to kick off a main card on UFC pay-per-view It’s just going to bring the energy Vicente Luc versus Kevin Holland Let’s move to your next best bet It takes place in the heavyweight division and you’re going with uh Sergey Spivok Are you at minus one look I’m going to have a lot of mixed reactions on this one because Waldo Cortez Aosta is coming off a knockoff of Ryan Span But Ryan Span doesn’t belong at heavyweight and Speedbach has potential to take this fight to the ground which is what he should do Aosta doesn’t throw combinations He doesn’t kick the legs He just throws an overhand right Speak to be the bigger man He has more experience He’s fought higher level of competition If Sergey Spie can avoid that fast ball the right hand from Acasta and he can gets his fight to the floor I wouldn’t be shocked if Spok won this by sub I like the number minus 150 Let’s go Sergey We’ve talked about every fight on the main card except for one and uh you had to expect that it was coming at some point It’s Patchy Mix making his UFC debut against Mario Batista and uh Ian is excited about it He’s also going to throw his premium play of the week at it Where are you going on this 135 lb fight the timing when you said that to Mario Batista’s look that he gave the commissioner was spot on Patchy Mitch is my premium play this week He should be a minus 300 on the feet His striking is not elite per se but Batista did not impress me at all against Jose Aldo All he did was hold against the cage And Dean Thomas said it best Patchy Mix is the best grappler in the world in this division He’s going to prove it here He can out wrestle Batista His cardio is good He’s used to fighting five round fights He’s only going three He’s been preparing for this He knows he has so much to prove here coming over from another organization He doesn’t want to do what Pit Bull did He doesn’t want to do what other fighters have done lay an egg This is someone who’s arguably a top five regardless of promotion regardless of organization I think he wins by sub here but we’re the numbers good enough I’m putting my all the eggs on the Patchy Mix basket in this fight Let’s Yeah I really want to be careful about uh not showing Mario Batista his respect because he has been very good But Patchy Mix believes he is a champion coming into this And if he proves that and looks like one you’re not going to see many lines like this I think against uh uh guys who are ranked outside the top three
Not even close
Let’s move on to the long shot parlay Have a little little bit of fun See if we can uh see if we can get a little lotto ticket going at UFC 316 Where are we going with this one
we’re starting right out the gates First off Ash moves the Red Fox should not be plus 400 Although his opponent’s very skilled very good This guy’s got good durability insane power Plus 400’s wild Gustiff said “My premium play last week Now the underdog gets Chaos Williams To me it’s whoever lands first I believe he can.” And last but not least Mark Tinsky This is a striker versus grappler This guy has a lot of submissions against Mad um going against Maderos If he gets the fight to the floor he can win this fight Those odds have come down quite a bit He was at one point plus 190 plus 3279 on a three fighter And I believe that’s on the early card alto together So we’ll know real quick if we’re hitting the lotto or not
Yeah nice little three-teamer for a nice little 33 to1 payout And then how about Parker’s parlay for UFC 316 in Newark New Jersey
Well we got you really excited for that And I’m going to bring that excitement level down quite a bit with the chalkiness of this parlay I do think all these all hit though Ozonakov should finish Ribero No problem there Silva Van the over under I still think this fight goes all three rounds So over one and a half Pyer and Morav at the end And if you get to that point you want to hedge It’s not a great number at plus 154 but if you think all four hit and you don’t want to take props you’re getting plus money on the four-leggger Listen it’s going to be a fun night We’re going to get Marab Davishi versus Shawn Ali in a high stakes rematch You’re going to have Amanda Nunees probably sitting cage side Harrison versus Juliana Pñena You got absolute firefights up and down this this main card and then even into the prelims Thank you for breaking it all down from a gambling perspective Hopefully made you a little bit smarter made you a little bit richer this weekend and enjoy UFC 316 Hop on and watch us on the post show right after as well Take care

Stream UFC 316 on ESPN+ https://plus.espn.com/ufc/ppv

ESPN MMA’s Brett Okamoto and Ian Parker get you ready for the full card from Newark, headlined by two title fights, Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley 2 and Julianna Pena vs. Kayla Harrison.

Welcome to ESPN BET, the official sportsbook of ESPN. Visit ESPNBET.com for more information. Must be 21+. Please play responsibly. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

✔ Get the ESPN App: http://www.espn.com/espn/apps/espn
✔ Subscribe to ESPN on YouTube: http://es.pn/SUBSCRIBEtoYOUTUBE
✔ Subscribe to ESPN FC on YouTube: http://bit.ly/SUBSCRIBEtoESPNFC
✔ Subscribe to NBA on ESPN on YouTube: http://bit.ly/SUBSCRIBEtoNBAonESPN
✔ Watch ESPN on YouTube TV: http://es.pn/YouTubeTV