The Buffalo Sabres should buyout Mattias Samuelsson if they can’t trade him

The Buffalo Sabres should buyout Mattias Samuelsson if they can’t trade him

What, if anything, is going to happen this summer with Matias Samuelson? A trade, a buyout, nothing? We’ll talk about it coming up on the Locked On Sabres [Music] podcast. Your Locked On Sabres, your daily podcast on the Buffalo Sabres, part of the Locked Onet, your team every day. What is up everybody and welcome in to this Thursday edition of the Locked On Sabres podcast. Thanks to our everydayers for coming back during this off season as we continue to evaluate what moves are ahead for the Buffalo Sabres. We are part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. Hey, be sure to check us out on our YouTube channel where you can watch the show, like and subscribe if you are watching along. And if you would like to become a part of our Locked On Sabers text club and you are not already a texter, you can do that at joinsubtext.com/lockedoners. Sneaky Joe Debbiosi on today’s show. Um, couple of things to get to including Matias Samson today. our next exit interview looking back on the 2024 25 season for players and then looking ahead for what’s next today. Samson as we’ve really I mean we’ve really tackled the whole blue line. We talked, we talked Owen Power. Um we talked Connor Clifton even on yesterday’s show. We’ve talked a lot about Bow and Byum of course as well. Um next up is Matias Samuelson who I think there is a decision to be made on this summer. I don’t know if the Sabres will make any decisions, but they do have options with the 25-year-old defenseman who has got a lot left on his contract. And I can’t imagine any Saber fan feels good about his trajectory and what his game has looked like, but we’ll get more in the weeds on that coming up. We’ve also got a little bit of an NHL topic for you a little bit later on. I would like to get to a little bit on Carolina. Their season coming to an end last night against the Florida Panthers and this is now it’s another season with Rod Bindmore as the head coach as the NHL version of the Bills where they get past round one. They always lose in either round two or in the conference finals. What is the Hurricanes problem? I want to get to that a little bit later on as well. Before we get to Samuelson though on today’s show, um, and by the way, today’s episode of Lockdown Sabers is presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. Right now, new FanDuel customers can get $200 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins. Before we get to Samuelson, little reaction to our show yesterday. I’ve got this trade idea, double hockey trade, where yesterday I told you I want to see the Sabres trade JJ Purka to the Rangers for Keandre Miller. Pair that with a deal to LA for Bow and Byum for Quinton Biffield. The immediate reaction that I saw was basically from most corners that it’s the right idea. The value might be off a little bit on both. Now, sometimes you’ve got to be willing to overpay on a certain deal to get what you want to happen. So when I saw a lot of reaction of, oh, JJ Purka is worth more than Keandre Miller, the Rangers are going to have to add something in. I don’t know that they’re that far apart that you would get something of value that’s worth it. So even if you knew Purka is more valuable than Miller, might still be a good idea to pull the trigger on that deal to accomplish what you’re trying to accomplish. Now the other end though where maybe I underestimated the value of Bow and Byum or what people’s perceived value of Bo Byum is because I have a tough time figuring out what his value is. I think there are there’s one group that believes that Byum is a very talented defenseman, still young, still very valuable. And there is are others who are like, “No, he’s not really that valuable.” And if you are a smart team in the NHL, you’re not going to pay almost anything to get him. You’ll give up something, but second round pick, maybe a late first round pick if you’re lucky, but you’re not getting a star player. Um, not that Quinton Biffield is a star, but you’re not getting a valuable player like Quinton Biffield in exchange for Bow and Byron. And I understand that. And I think you’re right. in a vacuum looking back in hindsight probably should have adjusted that a little bit to have the Sabres add in a lot more maybe to get Biffield maybe the ninth overall pick even along with Byum would be what it would take to get Quinton Biffield if even that would do it here’s one bit of context though that I do want to include to anybody that believes oh wait you’re never getting Quinton Biffield for Bow and Byum I understand why you would say that reminder of who the general manager of the Los Angeles Kings currently is Ken Holland was hired by the Kings who has some putrid trades in his last five, six years as a general manager in the National Hockey League. If you are a team looking to make a big swing in the trade market, you want to pick on the either the dumb GMs or the dinosaur GMs. Sometimes there’s overlap on that. And to me, I got a dinosaur GM and Ken Holland who he did some nice things in Edmonton, but he’s also proven, I think, over five years that his perception of value in the league is outdated. And I would believe that he is a GM that I could take advantage of. Um, that being said, it’s Kevin Adams and he’s not typically he might be somebody that other GMs think you could take advantage of. So, I’m not saying that just because Ken Holland’s a GM, he would do Biffield for Byron, but I think it’s more likely that it would be one for one or that you could get Biffield because he’s the GM and you have no idea what his value is of that player and of that team. Analytically, Biffield’s an amazing player. Uh, I don’t know that Ken Holland’s going to listen to those people in that front office. So, I have no idea what he would do with it. So, that’s just the bit of context I wanted to add to anyone thinking, “Oh, you’re a for thinking by room for Biffield is possible.” Probably. And you probably have to add in another key piece, no doubt. All right, to Matias Samson. So, Saber defenseman Matias Samson, who wears a letter, wears an A, just completing his age 24 season with the Buffalo Sabres. And it did not go well by any stretch of the imagination. In fact, I would go as far as to say that he is one of the top three Saber players biggest letdowns in 2024 25. Maybe only the likes of maybe Jack Quinn would supersede him in that category. 62 games played at age 24, four goals, 10 assists, 14 points. By the way, he only had three goals in his NHL career going into the year. four last year playing 19 minutes and 18 seconds of ice time per night. That is a third consecutive year or a second consecutive year I should say where the minutes per night have decreased after playing 2211 per night in 2223 2030 per night and 2324 and then this last year 19 minutes and 18 seconds. It went down almost two whole minutes and now has gone down another minute plus. Samson’s role being slowly decreased as time goes on. Matias Samson at this point in time is a big lumbering defenseman that does not hit, is not imposing physically, is not intimidating physically in any way, shape or form, is not a skilled offensive defenseman. So what and as somebody that you cannot trust and was at the center of the biggest what’s the word I want to use the biggest um frustration point of the season his inability to stand up for teammates and that appears to be something that does not come natural to him. So what do I have as a player in Matias Samuelson? It’s tough to figure out where the value comes from. He, if I were going to try very hard and tell you what he does well, he’s got a great poke check. He’s got a long reach and a long stick and he’s got a pretty good ability and a pretty good instinct for when to throw that stick out and knock a puck off a of a skilled player’s stick. He’s a pretty good shot blocker. Um, I would think by most stretches of the imagination. kind of a tough thing to evaluate playerto player, but he’s a pretty good shot blocker. Beyond that, I don’t have a lot of nice things to say about Matias Samuelson, the player. And to me, I’m at my ends for wanting to see him continue as a member of the Buffalo Sabres. This past year, when you look at some of the advanced stats, not advanced even, just look at the shots. When Matias Samuelson was on the ice at five on five last season, that was 984 minutes of ice time last season. When he was out there, the Buffalo Sabres were outshot 466 to 49. They were never the better team when he was out there. And a lot of those minutes, especially in the final two months of the season, were spent with Rasmus Dalene as his defense partner. And yet those still end up being the season results. Shot attempts on the year when Samuelson was out there, 979 for the opponent, 859 for the Sabres. The expected goals, 44 for the opponent, 36 for the Buffalo Sabres. The Sabres were not the better team when he was out there and I have got two years in a row where he is his his confidence level and his play has gone down. Now what you’re left with is a player that at 24 25 years old in my opinion does not have a solid foundation of skill or role even to build off of. That’s a problem. If he’s not going to be an offensive player for you, which he’s never going to, and he’s not going to be this intimidating force physically and somebody that you could trust to rely upon to defend teammates and be a leader in that way, wearing a letter, then I’m sorry, I don’t have I don’t have a foundation to improve on when I’m looking at Matia Samuelson. And that’s a problem. That’s a big big problem. But really, I know I’ve said it a couple of times, the story of his year is he’s on the ice against the Devils when Ta Thompson gets hit in the head and is laying there with his helmet off. He is close enough. He stands there. He’s got an Owen Power who is younger than him behind him, standing behind. And he’s got a Jason Zucker, a smaller player in front of him and a rookie in Yuri Koulique. and your best player is laying on the ice. You wear a letter. You are 6 foot five, 230 pounds. You are a physical player. You’re excuse me, you’re supposed to be a physical player. You have got to step in and do something. And I think that even if he had had a solid year, it would have been clouded by that moment. But instead you had a pretty poor year that was clouded by that moment which for me means that I am good to move on. And that is where options present themselves. You might be thinking trade but as we’ve talked about on this podcast here and there over the last six months a buyout for Matia Samuelson is very realistic. Get to that when we return here on the locked sabers podcast. Today’s episode of the Locked on Sabres podcast is presented by FanDuel Sportsbook and it is one of the best times of the year for FanDuel Sportsbook. If you are interested in looking at all the playoff action in the Stanley Cup playoffs and also in the NBA playoffs, which are in full swing, uh Oklahoma City punching their ticket to the finals last night. Every night is delivering highlightw worthy performances, big momentum shifts, comebacks, can’tmiss moments. So whether it’s a game-winning shot or a breakout player, there’s never been a better time to get in on the action. And FanDuel makes it easy to stay in the game before tip off and live with player props, performance trends, and same game parlays. Fans have more ways than ever to play smart and win big. You could pick out which players you think are going to show up in the biggest moments and how could tracking their trends um help you build the next big bet. You could look at their points or their field goal percentage going into halftime and you’re thinking, uh, you know, uh, SGA, he’s been a little cold in the first half. I don’t think that he’s going to be cold throughout the entirety of the game. Let me take the over in the second half. So, check it out. If you’re new to FanDuel, it’s the perfect time to sign up. Head to fanduel.com. You can place your first $5 bet, and if you win, you’ll get $200 in bonus bets. So again, check it out for all the NBA and the NHL action. First $5 bet, if it wins, you get $200 in bonus bets. Make every moment more with FanDuel, official sports betting partner of the NBA. Sneaky Jody Biosi back here on the Locked On Sabres podcast. We’re talking Matias Samuelson on today’s show. And now the question of what is to come with Matias Samson? what are the options for the Sabres and how they can move off of Samuelson if they’d like to. And I might want to guess that they do. Lindy Ruff whenever talking about Samson, whenever I interviewed him on WGR this season, this past season, I don’t want to say he was overly critical, but he definitely was open to talking about how Samuelson needed to play a better role defensively and physically. And he often would differentiate power from Samson, which makes sense. After that Devil’s performance, I think I talked I asked him, I kind of pinned the two together for a certain point and Lindy kind of wanted to separate the two as, you know, power. Yes, he’s big, but he gives you value in all these other areas that I don’t need him to play that role for him to be valuable, right? You might want him to because he’s 6’5, but for him to be valuable, he doesn’t have to throw his weight around. And what Lindy would often point to is Samuelson’s not that. So for him to provide value, he’s got to give you that. And he really hasn’t. So that’s the most you could really go on for what the Sabres motivation might be with Samson. What are their options if they do want to move on from Matias Samson? Well, you could trade him. And there have been, you know, murmurss about Samuelson. I think Philadelphia maybe was a team that has been mentioned with him in the past, but maybe not to a large degree. Um, you could try to trade him. Uh, I don’t know how many teams in the league are going to be that interested in a 25-year-old defenseman who really has never been that great and is under contract until the year 2030. I think that is a hard sell, but someone might love the size. Someone might love, you know, the youth combined with the size. I don’t know what it might be. Um, someone might just really, that’s it. You get a six foot five young defenseman on the market and you might find a team that goes, “Oo, I can work with that. I can work with that size and that reach and maybe they don’t even realize how not physical he is.” Um, so that a trade is an idea. And for that, I mean, it would just be whatever you could get. If a team was willing to take him, you would get take whatever fifth round pick, sixth round pick, whatever you could get your hands on. I am skeptical that they will be able to deal him. And if they can’t deal him, rather than just let it play out and let him come back to the team this this season, what I would like to see the Buffalo Sabres do, because this is their final opportunity to get him on this level of buyout, because if you are 25 years or younger, a buyout is only 33% of the total contract. The moment you turn 26, it’s 2/3. You go from 1/3 to 2/3. And that to me is a big enough difference to make this a decision that the Sabres would have to make. Now, if you were to buy out Matias Samuelson this summer, it’s a long period of time. It’s because he has five years remaining on his deal. you are doubling the amount of time you’re paying this contract over. So, it becomes a 10-year buyout. Samuelson’s buyout would extend through the 2034 2035 season. I mean, can you even fathom 2034 and 2035? Maybe the Sabres made the playoffs by then. Um, Samuelson would have a long buyout, but the cap number is extremely low. $714,000 because it’s onethird of the total money remaining on the contract. And there are there is 21,400,200. Let me try one more time here. 21,428,000 remaining in total on Samson’s contract. Well, I’m only paying onethird of that, which comes to $7,142,000. But I get to pay that over 10 years. $714,000 a year would be what you’re paying Matias Samson. Peanuts. Nothing. It’s a It’s a rounding error on your salary cap. And that’s now when the salary cap is expected to be about $95 million. In eight years, what do we think the salary cap is going to be at? I know the NHL rises salary capwise a lot slower than other sports like the NFL, but it’ll still be what $150 million by then, $125 million at least. Like the cap will be a lot higher. I think in 8 n years when you’re reaching the ends of that buyout, you won’t care. The Sabres won’t care. You may be two GMs removed from Kevin Adams at that point. um unless they get the next guy, you know, ends up being the right guy. Um I just I don’t see the downside of it. I don’t see what the problem really would be. And as I mentioned on yesterday’s show when I talked about a Conor Clifton buyout, one thing you have to look at for buyouts with the Buffalo Sabres, because they show you signs of penny pinching, what will this buyout do to Terry Pagula’s pockets? And the sales pitch would be, “Hey, Terry, this guy is really letting us down. He’s not playing all that well. If we bought him out right now, instead of you having to give him $21 million over the next five years, we’ll only have to give him $7 million over the next 10. He’ll save for $14 million in your bank account that you won’t have to give Matias Samson in the next 10 years.” And I could see how that might be enticing to the owner as well. So, I think a buyout is very real for Samson. And if it were me, I would do it. I would, unless someone’s going to offer me something to take the whole contract, I would buy out Matias Samuelson this summer. And that’s in addition to me saying yesterday, I would buy out Connor Clifton. I don’t just want to buy out everybody, but so it’s kind of a coincidence that on backto-back days, these have been the two players I’ve talked about. I’m not trying to buy out everybody. I would buy out two players this summer though and it would be Samson and it would be Clifton and get those two players off my team. I want to improve off of them uh going into next year. I’m not worried about the dead cap that you’re going to have to eat over the next, you know, however many years. Clifton, it’s only two and with Samson it is 10. Trade them, buy them out, whatever. In my opinion, the Sabres relationship with Matias Samson should come to an end this summer. I would hope, not that this is a huge deal, but I would hope that he’s at least not wearing a letter next year. So let down by the lack of standing up for teammates. There was a Detroit game later in the year where I think he’s also on the ice and not willing to get into it while Zack Benson is running through three Red Wings to get to defend a teammate and big old Samuelson’s in the background. Like it just it looks like a labor for him. It just doesn’t it’s not an instinct to jump in and defend a guy. And that to me is a big problem and I wouldn’t have them wearing a letter because of it. When we come back, the Carolina Hurricanes fall in the conference finals again. What is their problem in the playoffs? The Leafs get all this coverage for what their problem is in the playoffs. What about Carolina’s that when we come back on Lockdown Sabres. Welcome back. Lockdown Savers podcast. Stinky Joe Debiosi. The playoffs roll along and the Florida Panthers are going back to the Stanley Cup final for the third consecutive year. The other news, by the way, in the NHL is that Alex Ovuchetkin seemingly will be playing his final season in the NHL for Washington this year. That was in an email to season ticket holders of the Capitals. So, appears that that is so. But the Panthers are on their way to the final. And interesting that it’s six years in a row now. The winner of the Prince of Wales trophy, which is awarded to the Eastern Conference champion, has come from the state of Florida. It’s gone Tampa, Tampa, Tampa, Florida, Florida, Florida. Two teams have owned this conference, not just the division, the conference for six years, and I don’t see Florida showing any signs of slowing down. That could be a trend. And I know what you’re thinking. Well, they get all the taxes, Kevin Adams, right? Earlier in the season, taxes and in palm trees, Florida and Tampa, right? I get why you might think that. They definitely get the benefit of it. I mean, Sam Reinhardt, I think, stayed there in part on a team-friendly deal because $8.9 million for Reinhardt in Florida is the same as 10 plus million in some other places. It’s not the whole reason, though. They deserve a lot of credit for being ballsy enough to make the Matthew Kachchuck trade. And let’s be face it, they made a great move trading for Sam Reinhardt. It doesn’t mean the Sabres can’t get value out of that deal, too. I mean, Yuri Koulik, Devin Levi, still a pretty good chance you’re going to get at least one really good player out of that, if not maybe two. But the Panthers traded two young pieces to get a guy who has scored 50 goals for them, led them in points this season, scored the game-winning Stanley Cup goal last season. And I don’t know if you watched Florida the last two games, last three games where Reinhardt has either been hurt or banged up. Well, last night he returns, but the two games before that that he missed, they don’t look like the same team on the power play at all. And that’s where I want to lead into this point about Carolina. I’ve been talking about recently this point that Travis Yos has been making from TSN, which I think is a really smart one, that power play impact in the postseason is being criminally underrated. It’s critical, super important. and Florida has a very good power play in the postseason over the last couple of seasons. Um, and Reinhardt’s been a big catalyst to that. Toronto is the worst of offender of this. They get there. No one gets worse from the regular season to the playoffs than the Toronto Maple Leafs do. The Toronto Maple Leafs go from a 9% power play. No, that can’t be right. 9% of the regular season. That’s not a high enough number. Whatever it is, no, it’s they’re dead last in going from regular season to power play or to playoffs. No one sees a greater decline than Toronto. Second last in that category, 2016 to 2025, Carolina. Carolina almost as bad as Toronto. Great power play in the regular season, horrific power play in the playoffs. And that is a big reason why they lost this series. Florida scored in the power play. Carolina didn’t and why they keep hitting their head in the ceiling. As Rod Bindore tries to argue this yesterday, by the way, after the game, well guys, I didn’t even think we’re going to make the playoffs this year. So, I don’t know what you’re talking about. What’s all this negativity about? The negativity is your team is having the same year year after year after year. I mean, there are some Bills comparables. Continuing with this team, they’ve lost in the conference finals three times. Their combined record in those three series is 1 and 12. 1 and 12 in the conference finals. They’ve lost in the second round three times. And the only time they lost in the first round, they actually won the qualifying round of the COVID year and then they lost to Boston in which was basically a round two. So, every year is the same for Carolina. Well, what’s their problem? Why haven’t they made the finals? Why are they so good at the same time? They have a great system. They have great defense. They have very good players. They don’t have elite players. And they don’t have that really that’s it. They don’t have the elite skilled players at the top. They need a franchise cornerstone forward. Sebastian Aaho is a nice player, but you know, Reinhardt, who I was just talking about, he’s not even he’s not the face face of the franchise in Florida up front. And his careerhigh in goals is 20 more than Sebastian Aos is. And this year, he scored more than Aaho, too. So, you got a nice player, but he would be the third most important player in Florida. Third, third most important forward in Florida. They have a problem in that. Yes, Barry Cochn and Jordan Stall are two of their top three centermen and those guys are very defensive and I think they’re lacking that offensive punch. So, and their goalender by the way, Kachchov, Freddy Anderson, whoever they’ve mixed in over the last six, seven years they’ve been going through this. Carolina has not had a star forward like the Panthers have with Bararkov or Matthew Kachchuck. and Carolina doesn’t have a star goalie that can backs stop them through an entire series like Florida has with Sergey Babroski. They need one of the two at the very least, if not both, for me to take them seriously as a team that I would pick to win the Stanley Cup again. To their credit, they tried this summer, this this season, excuse me, in the middle of the season. They knew they needed this, you know, like they’re not dumb. They know, hey, we got to get a star forward. They tr they did trade for Miko Rantin. They just couldn’t get a contract done with him and then moved him at the deadline. So, they tried with Rantin. They had it, but they just couldn’t close the deal long term. They also tried to get Mitch Mner at the deadline. There was a report about that that Mner said, “No, no thanks. I want to stay in Toronto for now.” They tried to trade Ranton in for Mner. So, and I’m not sure Mner will serve solve your power play issues in the playoffs, but he’d be your best forward. So, they’ve tried. They know they need a guy like a Rantin or like a Mitch Mner. I would bet heavily heavily when July 1st strikes the Hurricanes are going to circle back around on Mitch Mner and they are going to be the most aggressive team to land his services because they just need that final finishing piece to get them over the hump. And I know Mner’s tenure in Toronto would not make you think he’s a playoff finishing piece, but he’s easily going to be the best forward available to Carolina in this off season. So, if you’re thinking about Marner for the Sabres or you’re dreaming about that and who the Sabres competition might be for that, um Carolina is going to be strong competition. In fact, they’re going to be well well more favored to land Marner than than the Sabres will. So very interesting and unique team to see their results late recently, but Carolina’s got some flaws even though they’re a very, very good hockey team. Florida to the finals. Edmonton winning tonight would create a Stanley Cup final rematch. We’ll see. That’s going to do it for us today here on the Lockdown Savers podcast. For more on the Panthers and the Oilers star series, be sure to check out Lockdown NHL game night. That is available wherever you get your podcast. Also on YouTube. They’re live every night, every uh game until a Stanley Cup champion is crowned. So check them out wherever you get your podcast. We’ll talk to you tomorrow here on the Lockdown Sabres podcast. We’ll be back on a Friday and next up we’re going to go back to the forward group for the Buffalo Sabres. And we’ll talk about Jack Quinn. What the hell happened to Jack Quinn this summer or this this season? It did not go well. We’ll get to him next time here on the Lockdown Savers podcast. Part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day.

Sabres defenseman Mattias Samuelsson had a tough season and has drawn tons of criticism from fans. If the Sabres want to move on from Samuelsson this summer, what’s a better idea, buyout or trade? Joe makes the argument for a buyout considering a trade doesn’t seem very likely. Can the Sabres stomach a 10 year buyout at a low cost?

Plus, with the Carolina Hurricanes being eliminated, what is stopping them from advancing to the Stanley Cup Final, despite winning playoff rounds every single year? Are they competition to sign Mitch Marner?

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