There’s JJ Peterka smoke with the Buffalo Sabres, but there may not be a fire

There’s JJ Peterka smoke with the Buffalo Sabres, but there may not be a fire

JJ Purka, will he be signed? Will he be traded? Will he be back with the Buffalo Sabres? We’ll look back on his year and look ahead coming up on the Locked On Sabres podcast. [Music] You’re Locked On Sabers, your daily podcast on the Buffalo Sabres, part of the Locked On podcast network, your team every day. What’s up everybody and welcome in to this Friday edition of the Locked on Sabers podcast and thanks for making us your first listen every day. We are free and available anywhere you listen to your podcast. Spotify, Apple Podcast, the Odyssey app. You could also watch us on our YouTube channel where you can be sure to check us out there. Like and subscribe the show if you like watching. And if you would like to become a part of our Lockdownsavers text club, you could do that by heading over to joinsubttext.com/lockdonsavers. And that is the place where you can sign up. Today’s episode is presented by FanDuel. Right now, new FanDuel customers can get $200 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins. Sneaky Jody Biosi. We’re going to be talking some JJ Purka on today’s show. So, there have been some rumors about him in the past that didn’t end up happening, but now he’s going into a contract negotiation with the Sabres and a very interesting player to look back on and look ahead for. Tonight is also a big night for the teams surrounding the Buffalo Sabres, the other uh Pagoula owned teams locally. You’ve got the Bandits starting game one against Saskatchewan in the NLLL finals. The Bandits looking for a threeeat. They are the favorites in that series. Game one and game three would be in Buffalo in a potential three-game series. I think especially in a league like that, NLLL, if this is what they’re doing in the AHL right now for different reasons, I think, but give games two and three in a best of three series to the higher seed. Give the team, you know, competitive advantage, sure, but really even that’s not really a big point here. give the team that’s earned home field the right to win the championship on home field. That no ma if you win it, no matter where you win it, it will be at home. Especially for Buffalo because Buffalo obviously fills that place up and it’ll be a packed house this weekend at Key Bank Center for the greatest show at that arena going right now. It is the Bandits and then the Amirs tonight. We’ll talk a little bit more about them in the third segment of today’s show. Looking back on game one, they fall 5 to four to Laval. What happened in that game and looking ahead to game two, which is tonight in Rochester um before they head to Laval for games three, four, and potentially five if needed. So down to one to nothing in that series. And of course in the Stanley Cup playoffs, there’s Toronto. They are doing the Leafs thing, but they always do. and Mner, who is someone we will do more shows about as free agency approaches. Uh, according to Chris Johnston, Sportsnet, he believes that right now it’s leaning towards Marner is going to want a fresh start on a new team this off season. He was putrid in game five. horrible spinama turnover in neutral in the neutral zone that he also didn’t make up for in his own end when it the Panthers came down in a twoon two. He had a pretty soft play earlier in the game that cost a goal. Marner has been tough on a few plays in this series. Um more and more reason why I think it’s getting ugly and maybe he gets, you know, he not he gets tossed out of there. He might just I’m done here. I’m done. I can’t do this anymore. It’s it’s so frustrating. Um, and we’ll see what ends up happening with Mitch Mner. So, let’s get to our main topic of today’s show, JJ Purka. As we go through the Sabres roster with our exit interview series, now let’s look at Purka, the season he just had and what is ahead for a player that does need a contract. Um, Purka at still a very young age, only 23 years old, will be a restricted free agent after finishing up the third year of his NHL career. Now, couple of things to get to on Purka. One, the stats. Very different looking stat sheet for Purka this past year in 2024-25 from the year prior. 23-24. Big breakout year for Purka. 28 goals, got hot down the stretch, only 22 assists. He wasn’t quite the playmaker that he was this past year. Last year, he shoots the puck a lot less. And that to me was notable. I think Don Granado instilled in Purka in his second full season, hey, you got a great shot. You know what? Shoot from everywhere. everywhere you get it. Take your shots. And it to some degree worked. 226 shots on goal. That’s a lot. In fact, I believe Thompson, although Thompson didn’t play the full season, so actually I bet you he didn’t top him. Uh Thompson and Dene were the only two players that topped Purka. And minutes-wise per game, they both played more. So, he was close, but only uh not only, but a 12% shooting percentage. That’s pretty good for Purka. and he ends up with 28 goals, but not quite yet a well-rounded allaround offensive game and certainly not a good great defensive game this past year after it became pretty clear that one annoying thing for me with Purka was at some point he became too predictable that you just knew as a defenseman it was easy to defend him because you knew he’s going to skate in with speed. He’s going to go stick handle, stick handle, stick handle. He’s going to tow drag his shot to get closer to the middle of the feet to change his angle and he’s going to rip it on goal. He’s not going to look to see if there’s a teammate open. He’s not going to try to drive to a different area of the ice to take a shot himself. He’s not going to try to go hard to the net and create a goal that way. He was always trying to score in the exact same way. And to his credit, he did do that 28 times. But I thought it became an easy play to defend. If you’re the defenseman and you watch any sort of film on JJ Purka, any bit of research, you know, oh, I just stay in front of him and I’ll move my stick when I’m pokechecking to the middle of his feet instead of to the outside of his lead foot and I’ll deflect the puck away. And that’s what happened all the time for him at the end of that 23 24 season. At the beginning of the 24-25 season, he dials it back. 60 roughly 60 fewer shots this past season compared to the year prior. Almost a shot per game less for JJ Purka. So, while he scored one fewer goal, 27 goals, he was a more efficient shooter with a 15.6% shooting percentage. It went up three percentage points. And along with that, he became a better playmaker, 41 assists, almost doubled his previous total of 22. And I think Purka went from a sniper and a goalcorer to just a great offensive player all around. Allaround great offensive player. The vision was there. Now keep in mind all this is when talking about five on five. We got to get to him as a power play player. But at five on five, this is one of the better offensive players in the sport. And the numbers reflect that. If you look at the amount of goals your team scores for every hour you’re on the ice, every a full game, 60 minutes of ice time, for every 60 minutes of ice time that you’re on the ice, there was nobody in the NHL this year that played more than 55 games that whose team averaged more goals per game when that person was on the ice than JJ Purka. when the Sabres when JJ Purkco was on the ice for every 60 minutes of gameplay. So a full game was worth 3.93 almost and that’s just at five on five no power play almost four goals per game. Nobody again that played more than 55 games had more than that. Nikita Cucharov one of those that was just a smidge behind Cooerov when he’s on the ice that the Lightning score 3.89 goals per game. This isn’t even expected goals. This is straight up how many goals did you score divided by 60 minutes of ice time. You are getting an efficient JJ Purka. Goals above replacement 96 percentile. All that stuff looks great for him. The one area that he still doesn’t give you is a defensive game. He is I mean all these guys I’m looking at when you know they average a lot of goals, a lot of high event hockey when they’re on the ice. Cucharov for instance I mentioned Kudrov is lower on goals four per 60 minutes. Purka is at 3.93. Cucharov is at 3.89. But then when you go over to that next column goals allowed per 60 minutes. Purka 3.36. I mean you still are scoring more goals when he’s on the ice but 3.3 is a lot when he’s out there compared to I mean Aucharov who again like it’s kind of a tough comparison. I’m comparing him one of the best winger in hockey. 2.29 for Cooerov. Like it’s a huge margin with Cucharov and it’s a smaller one for JJ Purka as you might expect. So you still need a better wellde defensive player. Um but to be fair, I don’t really know that it even matters. Purka is such a valuable offensive player. He’s got a spot in my lineup until he doesn’t want to be here anymore playing the way he did last season. And I will I’ll take some of the bad in his own end turnovers once in a while with the good of the guy just generates offense. He can finish and now he can playmake as well. Purka I like the player a lot. I am not floored at the development that he’s had. Um, remember that first rookie year, long periods of the season, he disappeared and I thought maybe he’d be more of a, you know, I think I once compared him to my guy Maxifinoff as somebody that could just be a little inconsistent where he shows up for 10 games, he disappears for 10 games, he shows up for 10 games, he disappears for 20. But, you know, the last two years and especially last year more so, a much more consistent game where on a night-to-ight basis, you’re getting chances created even if the defensive game wasn’t there. So, great season from Purka. He ends up with 68 points and I would project there is another small step forward coming from him to become a point per game player uh in the NHL and he is already almost there. Now, the one other negative of his game that needs to improve before we get to the contract and the smoke of there were some rumors about Purka wanting to be here and not just from one person. Before we get to that though, the other negative Purka on the power play, you know, it’s not it’s never really worked. And I can’t really explain to you why that is. Maybe it’s because he doesn’t love a one-timer. He’s pretty good at it. He scores some goals on the one-time, but it never seems to be his favorite idea on a play. And on the power play, when you are opposite of Taage Thompson on on his left side or on the right side, he’s offh hand, left-handed shot, you got to be able to rip those one-times. And again, I think he’s usually pretty good at them, but those plays just always seem to go to him and then they never really work their way elsewhere. So, improving as a player on the power play. Last year, only six power play goals. He only has I mean for someone who has 67 goals in his last three years for only nine of them to be 11 of them excuse me to be on the power play that’s a pretty low percentage for a very good offensive player and really until last year he didn’t even get long extended periods of time on the number one unit because I think the coaches saw it they just they thought this guy just something’s not clicking for him when they have the man advantage. Um, so that is to me the the deal with Purka. You know, the numbers don’t really, this is where like I want to present you with the numbers cuz that’s what my eyes tell me is that he doesn’t really seem like he gets it. To be fair though, they do score when he’s out there. When he’s out there, and again, he’s on the number one unit, so there’s that. But they the Sabers power play production when he was on the number one unit was actually higher than it was for almost any other player. So the numbers don’t bear that out. So just keep that in mind. But I there’s still just something that doesn’t look right for me when when Purk is on the power play. All right. When we come back, there were rumors at the trade deadline. There was a a fivem minute period of the trade deadline where I thought and we all thought JJ Purka was a goner. Well, is that totally unfounded? Is he looking to get out? We’ll get to that and what the contract could look like coming up on Lockdown Sabers. Today’s episode of the Locked On Sabres podcast is presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. The NBA and the NHL playoffs are in full swing and every night delivers all those highlight worthy performances. You’ve had some crazy comebacks in these games. You’ve seen Toronto just getting destroyed, which, you know, that’s always seems to be a pretty good bet. So whether it’s a game-winning shot or a game-winning goal, a breakout player, there’s never been a better time to get in on the action. 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Back here on the Lockdown Sabres podcast, the game night for Rochester. We’ll talk about them coming up in the next segment. Down one to nothing to Laval in the second round of the AHL playoffs. We’re talking JJ Purka. So, looking at his game, I’m really impressed. I think he’s going to be a point per game player in the NHL. He’s already not far off that. Is he going to do it in Buffalo is a legitimate question that you should be asking yourself right now at the trade deadline. This was all after not this was all disputed and the Sabres did not move JJ Purka at the deadline and Kevin Adams made comments that they never really were looking at that. They never wanted to move him at all. Frank Saravelli from the daily faceoff who’s one of the plugged in insiders of the league on that night said, “Sounds like Purka is getting close to getting moved to the New York Rangers.” Renault Livois from TVA in Montreal, one of the other big insiders in the NHL. He tweeted that night to Indeek K JJ Purka Sarah Exchange or New York Rangers which if you hit translate means all indications are JJ Purka will be traded to the New York Rangers. That was the one for me cuz Renolis he almost never gets things wrong and really Sarah not very often either. So, and I had two insiders from different publications or sites that were telling me basically the same thing. Now, I’d tell you their source was probably the same, whether that was the agent or whether that was someone that works for the Rangers. That might be more likely that someone from the Rangers was talking. But either way, somebody somewhere thought there’s one of two things happened. Somebody somewhere thought Purka to the Rangers was done or closing in on being done or two they made it up to gain leverage in something. If you believe that it was all BS, that’s fine. Just tell me what the leverage gained was by somebody telling two big insiders that he was going to go to the Rangers. And I’m not telling you that that isn’t out there. I just have a tough time figuring out who gains from Purka to the Rangers. It does does the Rangers gain from that? Do the Sabres gain if they’re talking with another team that’s the Rangers? Cuz that one makes sense, but I don’t think the Sabres are trying to trade JJ Purka. So, I don’t know. There have been rumors and smoke about Purka and whether he wants to stay in Buffalo long term for a good amount of time now. And until he signs a seven, eight-year deal, I guess I’ll believe it when I see it that he’s going to sign a long-term extension with the Buffalo Sabres. I don’t know that that’s what he wants to do. I would hope and think the Sabres would want to do it, but even that is a bit of a question because they locked up so many players right away that maybe they’re a little spooked from that and they want to wait a little bit on a player’s contract, do a bridge deal. They haven’t really done a bridge deal on any of these guys that have come up for contracts and maybe they want to make Purka the first. That’s dangerous. You did that with Sam Reinhardt and it blew up in your face. So for me, that’s not the smart move. I think you should forget about Samuelson’s contract and Thompson’s contract and Cousins’s contract and all these recent examples of signing a guy early. A lot of those guys were also after one year. This is two. And I wouldn’t think this is the the time to pick to mess around on your philosophy of signing contract extensions. This guy is good. This guy is even great. He is young. He is fast. He plays in your top six. he stays healthy, sign him and get him locked up on a seven, eightyear deal. I don’t know that you’ll be able to do that because you’ll have to put the ball in his court and you’ll have to figure out what his motivation is. But if I were Kevin Adams, that’s the deal I would be searching for is a seven or an eight-year deal. And if he doesn’t want to do that and we have to do a bridge deal, then I try to walk him to restricted free agency again rather than walk him to UFA status. So maybe a two-year bridge deal to me is the most likely outcome because the Sabres want to be good right now and they’re not going to want to trade Purga for futures. If there’s a hockey trade to be made out there, you get a player that’s four or five years older and also really good and the other team gets the younger player. Maybe that’s the deal to be had. But I don’t make that deal unless I know Purka doesn’t want to stay here long term and that the best I’m ever going to do with him is a bridge deal and I have a short-term relationship between the player and the team. I hope I’m all this is just wrong and Purka is would listen to this and go, I don’t know where this came from. This idea that I don’t want to be in Buffalo long term. I’m just going to sign a seven-year deal. To me, that’s the best case scenario. But again, I’m a little skeptical that we’re headed for that with him. So, great player. If they do a deal, I think you’re looking at like a two-year deal worth about $14 million. $7 million per year, I think, is what you’d be looking at in a bridge deal. If you could get him to do a long-term deal, you’re probably in the eights, right? The cap has gone up a little bit. Eight, a good amount, actually. And 8 and 1/2 is the new 7 and 1/2. And I think that’s about what Purka would be worth at this moment in time. So I would be trying to sign him if I were the Buffalo Sabres. When we come back, what happened to the Amirs in game one and should we be worried at all about this series? That’s coming back here on Lockdown Sabres. Back here on the Lockdown Savers podcast. It is a game night for the Amirks. They are taking on the Laval Rocket game two in Rochester. So game one does not go their way and couple of observations that I had from the game. 5 to4 loss on Wednesday night before they get going here tonight and then go back up to Quebec for games three, four, and five. Four and five if ne if necessary. Let’s hope at least four is necessary. Um Devin Levi gives up five goals. I don’t think he played amazing. I think he played fine. He made some really nice saves. To me, Laval looks like a better team and it’s only one game and the Amirs can outplay them in the rest of the series, but the Ammers got outshot 34 to 27. And to me, what I saw from the Amirs in this game was a couple of different times that that did end up in the back of their own net where Levi gave up a big rebound and the Amirs panicked and they all collapsed in around Levi too close together and it allowed so much space around them that every loose puck was going to the Rocket and that was giving them second, third, sometimes and fourth opportunities. And again, some of that is on Levi. Levi gave up some big juicy rebounds. I think it was the third goal where a Laval player had a shot from the short side. Not really a dangerous play and Levi makes the save, but the puck dribbles back out into the middle. That’s a rebound you can’t give up. That’s a That’s a That’s a technique thing. That’s a You know, you just got to play a cleaner game than that. So, there weren’t many moments where Levi to me did that. Um, and again, that’s one where you still would hope a defenseman would come in and clean it up for him and nobody did. So, you had a couple moments like that. Also, couple of power plays, took a couple penalties, and the Rocket got some giant opportunities. Logan Mayu from the point with a bomb of a shot, a little too close in. You had some real great chances from the Rocket. They’re impressive. They’re an impressive team on the overall. From the Amir’s end of things, I mean, they were there. They got off to a little bit of a slow start. Michael Leone talked about that that he really didn’t feel like they found their game until the second period. And against this opponent, you cannot do that. It’s best team in the HHL in the regular season. You can’t have a period off. They only lost period by one. Um, and they got their goals right. Like Kale Kle, man, that that one-timer from the point on the power play has been one of the most consistent offensive things this whole playoff run. I’ve seen it like four times already. Constellaneous um quick snapshot from the middle of the ice. That was an impressive goal that the Ammer scored in this one. Um, but on the overall, it just wasn’t enough against the Rockets. So, listen to my, you know, untrained eye on the Laval Rocket. I’m not watching their games every single night of the AHL season. Looks like a good team. It looks like a team that if the Amirs are going to win this series, they’re either going to have to play 25% better. you know, 30% better. They got to have a better first period or they’re going to need Devin Levi to kind of stand in his head. I think that might be necessary against this opponent specifically. It is probably their biggest challenge throughout the entire playoffs. If they’re able to get by the rocket, they might be the favorite to win the Calder Cup. And it might take Levi doing special things, but luckily he is capable of that. And he’s done it for the Amirs. Um he’s done it at other levels of hockey. And I think you’re going to need a big couple of games out of Devin Levi for the Amirs to get through this series. So Amirs down one to nothing. It’s a 705 puck drop on Friday tonight against the Rocket and then 7 o’clock on Wednesday back up in uh back up in Quebec. All right, go Ammers. Go Bandits. That’s going to do it for us today here on the Locked On Sabres podcast. We’ll keep moving on through the um through the the roster. some of the more interesting players from the Sabres as we look back on their seasons and we look ahead to contract dilemmas and other things. We will talk Zack Benson on our next show. Very excited to talk about Benson. He’s one of my favorite players to cover in part because it’s not easy to analyze his game. The numbers are not there, but he’s such an impressive player when you watch him. So Benson, we’ll get to him on our next show. So come back for that. If you’re looking for more playoff talk on the Leafs and other things, be sure to check out Locked On NHL Game Night. It’s available wherever you listen to your podcast, including on their YouTube channel. We’ll talk to you next time here in the Lockdown Sabres podcast, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day.

JJ Peterka has turned into one of the better 5-on-5 offensive players in the NHL over the last two seasons. With a contract needed to be signed, is Peterka going to sign a long-term extension with the Buffalo Sabres? Or are the rumors that popped up at the NHL trade deadline connected to something real. Sneaky Joe talks Peterka’s game and what the most likely outcome is for him this offseason.

Plus, the Rochester Americans drop Game 1 to the Laval Rocket, in a game where the best team in the AHL showed why they’re so dangerous. Does Devon Levi have to be better for the Amerks to win the series?

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