FLATLINE: SF Giants’ Bats Go ICE COLD Again | Can San Francisco SALVAGE Playoff Hopes?

FLATLINE: SF Giants’ Bats Go ICE COLD Again | Can San Francisco SALVAGE Playoff Hopes?

The Giants bats have flatlined again. Three years running, it’s the same story. And right now, it’s hurting them one loss at a time. You are Locked on Giants, your daily San Francisco Giants podcast, part of the Locked On podcast network. Your team every day. Hello and welcome to Locked On Giants, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, where it’s your team every day. My name is Ben Caspic and on the show we provide daily episodes Monday through Friday talking about the San Francisco Giants in a way that’s datadriven and rational, but also simple, passionate, and accessible to all. I’m a former contributor for the baseball statistics and analysis websites, Beyond the Box Score, and Rotographs. I’ve been podcasting about the Giants since 2015, hosting this show for over 6 years, and I’m a lifelong Giants fan. Thank you for making Lockdown Giants your first listen every day. We’re free and available wherever you get your podcasts, including YouTube, so check us out there if you have not already. And please just hit that subscribe button wherever it is that you’re following the show. Today’s episode is brought to you by FanDuel. Now, new customers can get $200 in bonus bets when your first $5 bet wins. And coming up on today’s show, we are going to get into the Giants bats being ice cold and how it’s a longunning issue with this team that is sinking them one loss at a time right now and it has done so in previous seasons. We’ll also get into the state of the race as the Giants, despite this losing streak, still hold a playoff position and I think it’s worth discussing as we are now just over a quarter of the way through the season. And we’ll give you updates on the health of Tyler Fitzgerald, Casey Schmidt, and Gerard and Carnosion. All guys who could help this currently lifeless offense. So, as I unfortunately predicted, Mel Kelly did in fact pitch a gem and Justin Verlander did in fact pitch well enough to win give up nine hits. Let’s be real. Two homers um two solo homers though. That was it. The Giants gave up two runs. If you look at this four game losing streak, in three of the four games they’ve given up three runs or less. They’ve given up three, two, two, and then seven. And they’ve scored one, one, one, and six. So, one run in three out of their last four games. I mean, those are games. They’ve had multiple games this year where they’ve allowed very few runs, like two, and lost. And so, that hurts. And yeah, Mel Kelly, one earned run, seven innings, eight strikeouts. Like, he just continues to be a big problem for the Giants. But the Giants problem may just be themselves as they enter the season now, not enter the season, but they enter today with a offense that ranks 20th in baseball in terms of uh park adjusted overall kind of advanced metrics like contextneutral weighted runs created plus where 100 is major league average and they’re at 94, which means 6% below average offense. The worst team is the Rockies at 66. And so it could be a lot worse. The next worst team is the White Socks at 76. So White Socks about 25% average below a 25% below average. Rockies 35ish% below average. And the Giants just 6% below average. But it’s just frustrating when year after year, and this was not always true. Like if you look back at the championship era, people always kind of underrated their offense because they play at Oracle Park and so they didn’t always put up a ton of runs. But with the park adjusted numbers like this, they were they were an above average offensive team. And certainly in 2021 when they won 107 games, they were an above average offensive team. But this year, 6% below average so far. And it got me thinking about I know in previous years this has been an issue. And so, by the way, I don’t know if I mentioned it. I think I did. That ranks 20th out of 30 teams. And last year, where did they rank in this category? 19th out of 30 teams with 3% below average offense. And how about 2023? Where did they rank? 23rd with 9% below average offense. And in 2022, where did they rank? Well, they ranked 14th with 2% above average offense. That was the year that I think Yeah. defense completely sunk them. But overall, if we look at 2022 to 2025, where do they rank? 19th with uh somehow this that doesn’t seem right. It’s Oh, no, there it is. 90. Yeah. So, they’ve been 4% below average. That ranks 20th uh in baseball over the last 2022, three, four, three and a quarter seasons. And so what what is that? 96 weighted runs created plus and they’re at 94 this year. So it’s just more of the same. And then if we go 2023 to 2025, it’s going to look worse because they Yeah. So they’re 23rd out of 30 teams over the last two and a quarter seasons in weighted runs created plus. And that’s just not good enough. I mean it right it they’re sandwiched between the Angels and the Nationals in terms of their park adjusted offense. And so the fact that it’s park adjusted is going to help the Giants. Like it’s saying even though like they’re they’re giving you credit basically for playing in a tough park and saying, “Yeah, we know your offense is going to be a little bit suppressed and still ranking as the 23rd offense contextneutral in baseball.” If we just look at runs scored, I mean, they ranked 22nd, sandwiched between the Royals and the Guardians. And so, it’s just been an ongoing theme. And this year though, you look at like, okay, it could be a little bit different when the season is over because you’ve got guys who are just not performing up to expectations like Will Thomas about 20% below average and that he’s never been that bad and we should expect him to be better than that. And you look at Lamont Wade Jr., He’s been like 60% below average and he’s always been an above average hitter. Not by a ton, but an above average hitter. Patrick Bailey, it’s been a nightmare offensively. I know he saved the day on opening day. Had a big hit in Chicago in extra innings, but overall almost 70% below average offense. So, Patrick Bailey just in a major offensive funk. And then beyond that th those are the main guys who play all the time and yet are really struggling. They do have one two three four five counting Tyler Fitzgerald players who have been 20% or more above average. And so if they could just have Adamus and Wade and Bailey being decent, it would make a huge difference. But the fact that especially Wade and Bailey who have played a lot, you know, combined 20 almost 50 played appearances and and just probably on average about 65% below average offense. That has hurt them. And then Adamus 20% below average that has definitely hurt them. So anyway, in just a minute though, we’re not going to be too negative. We’re going to talk about the state of the race as we have completed more than a quarter of the season and the Giants are in a playoff position. So, despite their four-game losing streak, despite their offensive struggles, something is keeping them afloat. We’ll look at the big picture and what to expect in the remaining 75% of the season in just a minute. And before we do, today’s episode of Locked on Giants is brought to you in part by FanDuel. 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Head to fanduel.com and place your first $5 bet. If it wins, you’ll get $200 in bonus bets. Make every moment more with FanDuel, official sports betting partner of the NBA. All right, here we go. We are going to get into the state of the race as we have crossed the 25% mark of the season. We’re at 26% of the season completed. 25.9. Thanks again for making locked on Giants your first listen every day. Everydayers tomorrow hopefully we’ll be talking about another Robbie Ray win day. The Giants have not lost a start of his. Being a superstitious baseball fan, I always worry like, well, that can’t continue forever. So, um I don’t know. you if you’re on YouTube, you can see I’m wearing the the City Connect hat. I think they’re 0 and2 in the City Connects. Well, that can’t last forever. They’re due for a win in the City Connects and we’ll be breaking down this game tomorrow. So, the state of the race is that even though they’ve lost four straight, the Giants, by the way, have a plus 34 run differential. Meaning on the season they’ve outscored their opponents by 34 runs which has an expected win loss record of 25 and 17 and the Giants are 24-8. So they’ve underperformed it by one win. For a while there they were overperforming it by a win or two. And so at this point I would certainly say I mean all these really close losses and like three out of the last four and specifically Yeah. I know three three they’ve lost two to one twice and 3 to one once and they’ve lost like two to nothing this year. So, there’s been plenty of times where they’ve been had close games where they’ve lost and they’ve also lost like a couple leads late like just the other day with Ryan Walker giving up two runs in the 11th or 10th inning and then the Ryan Walker game against the Angels. So, anyway, that’s good news that your run differential is good enough to be 25 and 17. If you were 25 and 17, that would be uh oh, that’s obviously 42 games and 25 out of 42 times 162. That’s a 96.4 win pace is what their run differential suggests. So, like even though it’s been tough these last four days, their winning percentage is still 571, which in 162 games is a 92 and a half win pace. So, 92 93 wins, which look, we would absolutely take that. 92 93 wins and they’d almost certainly be in the postseason. Now, it’s early enough though that you’re still just six games over 500 at 24 and 18. And so, if you lose like a couple games, all of a sudden, like it dramatically changes that I don’t want to call it a projection, but like a quote unquote onpace performance. So, there’s too much season left to be even really taking that seriously. But, it’s worth just kind of taking a look at the standings. So in the National League West, the Giants are now three and a half back of the Dodgers. Padres’s have lost a couple games in a row themselves. So the Giants are two back of them in the division. Arizona winning last night makes a, you know, they gain a game on the Giants, whereas you can push them back a full game with a win. So that’s why this series is big. And every game, like even though you lost the first one, they did in Chicago. Uh if you can win the next two, then that would make a big difference in this race. Like it really does when you’re head-to-head against a team that figures to be competing with you down the stretch for a postseason spot. And so the Diamondbacks are just two games back of the Giants. And so realistically, the 27 and4 Dodgers, which by the way, that is the best record in baseball. Surprise, surprise. Even though they had a pretty long losing streak at one point this year, there they go. They’re still the best record in baseball, and nobody should be surprised. And so, realistically, you’re looking at probably a wildcard birth if you’re looking at the postseason. The players would never say that. Buster Posey would never say that they want the division, but it kind of takes a miracle to win the division right now when you’re dealing with not only the Dodgers, but also the Padres’s and the Dbacks. So, the wildard race, the Padres’s are currently the number one wildcard team. The Giants are two back of them. And the number two wildard team is the Phillies right now. The Giants are just half a game behind them. So, that makes the Giants the number three wildard team. And the air ar not Arizona Cardinals, the St. Louis Cardinals are just one game back of the Giants as the Cardinals have won nine straight. And so, yeah, the Cardinals are coming in hot. They’re playing the Phillies, though. So, if the Card one of them has to lose and so the fact that the Giants are sandwiched between those two teams, it’s kind of a good thing that no matter what, one of them will lose if you can just take care of your own business. And the Dbacks are that next team back of the Giants. And then the Braves. I think the Braves may be the real key when it comes to do the Giants get into the postseason. If the Braves don’t make it, uh that would be a big boost to the Giants because the Braves figured to be like a 90 plus win team along with the Phillies, along with the Mets. And then that alone looked like maybe three teams making the playoffs there. Two wildcard teams and then it would leave just one wild card spot which would mean you would have to finish in second in the division ahead of the Padres’s ahead of the Dbacks just to get in. And so the Braves who got off to I think it was a 0 and7 start. They’ve climbed their way back to being 20 and 21 but the Giants do have a 3 and 1/2 game lead on them but it’s slipping. It was like a fivegame lead. It was It was, you know, more than that. And then there are, of course, other teams that you got to think about like the Cardinals are a surprise winning nine in a row here. The Reds are somewhat of a threat. The Brewers are somewhat of a threat. The Cubs lead that central division. And then outside of that, I think the Nationals, Marlins, Pirates, and Rockies are not a threat. But the Braves not making it would like if you told me right now the Braves will not make the playoffs that would give the Giants a significantly larger chance of making it in my opinion. So if we look at the playoff odds according to fan graphs, the Giants have fallen. They were up like near 60% and right now they’re down at 42% according to fan graphs with a median projection win total of 85.3 with the Padres’s and Dbacks both right around 87 and the Braves at 88, the Phillies at 90, and the Mets at 92 and the Cardinals at 82 and a half. So, it really does see those the East teams like the the Mets, Phillies, and Braves, and then also the West teams, the Dodgers, Padres’s, and Dbacks. That’s six teams right there. Two of them will win the division, but that would be four wild card teams potentially. So, you’ve got to finish among the top three when it comes to the non-division winners. I hope this is not too confusing, but basically, let’s assume the Mets win the division and the East, just for the sake of simplicity, and the Dodgers win the West. Basically, you’ve got the Phillies, the Braves, the Padres’s, and the Dbacks. And that’s four teams, and only three of them can make the postseason if and then that’s not even counting any possible NL Central teams. And so you’ve got to finish ahead of two of those teams at least, assuming again the Dodgers win the West and the Mets win the East. So anyway, the odds are a little bit against the Giants now, like every game is important. Um, there’s this other projection system called the Bat X that has the Giants at 49% playoff odds with a with a median predicted win total of about 86. Has the Diamondbacks below them at about 85. And in the East, it sees the Mets at or sees the Phillies winning the division with about 91 wins, the Mets at 89, and the Braves at 88. So the Giants would still not make it if all of these came true because the Padres’s it has at 87.6. So the Giants just need to play well is like what it comes down to. I mean a quarter of the season is complete and it kind of happened fast but they overall you’ll take the record like I think if you had asked any Giants fan like how would you feel? How do you feel? Or how would you feel I should say if the Giants were 24 and 18 at about the quarter mark of the season, a 92 1/2 win pace. Everybody would take that. And so just start over. You’ve got some good things happening. Elliot Ramos has been amazing. He had another good game yesterday. Got robbed of a gamechanging hit by Lordis Guriel Jr. and left after an incredible at bat. He had like what, three, four hits? No, three hits in the game. That would have been his fourth. Um, so yeah, there’s there’s bright spots for sure. Uh, it’s easy to focus on the negative when you’re in the midst of a four-ame losing streak, but taking a big, you know, bird’s eyee view, you can appreciate that they’re in a playoff position. They have a run differential that is among the best in the league. And forget the four-game losing streak. just start over tonight. It’s a new quarter of the season. Focus on the next whatever 42 games and and start over. And hopefully some of your cold bats can get hot like Adamus and Bailey and Wade. but also if you got some guys coming back from injuries. And so coming up in just a minute, the status of Tyler Fitzgerald, Casey Schmidt, and Gerard and Carnosion, and when are they going to come back and what kind of impact can they make when they come back? We’ll get into it in just a minute. And before we do, all right, as promised, we’re going to get into the status of Tyler Fitzgerald, Casey Schmidt, and Gerard and Carnosion, who figure to help this team. Like I said, whose biggest issue in my opinion, you could argue that the starting pitching has been a little bit shaky, but also I think that just offensively not putting up enough runs overall has been more of an issue and and having some major like automatic outs in the lineup has been a concern. And so some of these guys potentially could really fix that or at least potentially fix that. Thanks again for making Lockdown Giants your first listen. Every day every day tomorrow we will be breaking down the Giants and the Dbacks. It these games really do matter and like you pick up a win and they pick up a loss. like it makes a difference when it when you look at these projections and it’s like, okay, you’re projected to finish like one game or maybe two behind them. Well, if you can win two games right now, then it changes the equation. Like, it really does. It’s kind of crazy how you have 162 games and I’m saying like one game makes a big difference, but it does. At the end of the year, if you’re sitting at 86 wins and they’re at 87, you’re going to look back and be like, “Wow, they lost that game two to one.” If you could have just scored two more runs, three runs total in a game, you could have tied at least or Yeah. No, that would flip-flop you. If you finish with one game lower, you would be one game ahead. If they have 87 and you have 86, you would have had 87 and they would have had 86. Anyway, getting to the injury updates. The Giants finally put out a press release with medical updates yesterday. Thankfully, I’ve been waiting for that for a long time. The first one is about uh Gerard and Carnosion, and we’ll get to him, but I want to point out I forgot when we did yesterday’s episode that he is on the 60-day injured list. And so, he’s not eligible to come back until about, you know, towards the end of the month, about two more weeks. And so even though he’s on a rehab assignment, he because they put him on the 60-day IIL can’t come back until 60 days from when they put them or from the start of the season, I should say. So there’s a little bit longer to go there. So guys who are not on the 60-day and therefore potentially are closer to returning are Tyler Fitzgerald, who has a left rib fracture, and Casey Schmidt, who has a left oblique strain. And how about draw and carnosone left hand fracture. Be careful of your left the left sides the left side of your bodies gentlemen. Please take care of those left sides. Anyway, the the update on Fitzgerald and Schmidt per the Giants is that they are continuing all baseball activity and both players will visit with Dr. Ken Akazuki this evening. That was yesterday. And if Dr. Akazuki is pleased with their progress, they could both begin rehab assignments tomorrow, which is today, with Triple A Sacramento. So, as of this morning, I did not see any update about how those visits with the doctor went, but potentially both Tyler Fitzgerald and Casey Schmidt could be in the lineup in Triple A Sacramento tonight. Today? Tomorrow. Today. What am I saying? I just don’t know if it’s a day game or a night game is what I meant. Today or to tonight. So, Tyler Fitzgerald was suddenly doing very well when he went down with this injury. He overall on the season was 20% above average, which is by the way where Jung Hu Lee is now. Lee has been in a slump for a while and is now just 20% above average offensively, although he’s been a great base runner and a good defender. So, he’s just been a really valuable player even though he’s been in a slump and hopefully he turns it around, of course. But suddenly you’ve got Matt Chapman, Mike Yremsky, and Elliot Ramos ahead of Jung Hu Lee offensively. And there was a lineup change as I predicted or said it was time for on yesterday’s episode. Moving down Adamus, moving up Ramos. They also moved up Chapman. So I think it ultimately is a good thing. But getting Tyler Fitzgerald back will also be a good thing. Although I must say Christian Cost has impressed me with when he’s up there, I do feel like he might do something. And yesterday he drove in the only run of the game for the Giants with a two out hit. He’s just kind of like you almost trust him to have a good at bat and to maybe get a hit. Even though the numbers, you know, he doesn’t have an extra base hit all season, but the expected numbers are actually pretty solid with a 324 expected weighted on base average despite a 234 actual weighted on base average, 90 points lower. So, I don’t know. I’ve been impressed offensively even though the numbers don’t really show it with Christian CS and also defensively but it’s frustrating when you know he got thrown out on that play. It’s like I see this a lot. Willie Adamus has done this several times. It’s like you do something good and then you end up messing it up by making some kind of mistake in the process. like Elliot Ramos the other day getting to third base as the potential tying run with one out and then getting picked off. It’s like you can’t really feel good about the fact that you got to third base at all when you get picked off ultimately and that you know Christian Claus getting thrown out there with the top of the lineup coming up. I think he was betting ninth was just not was suboptimal. But anyway, Tyler Fitzgerald would push Christian CS back to the bench. And for Casey Schmidt, it’s a question like David VR has barely played. And like when there’s a lefty in there, I guess he’s getting his starts. Like I it almost I guess they haven’t faced a lefty in a while. They’ll face one on Wednesday. Um, he only has 17 plate appearances, even though Casey Schmidt has been on the IIL for a really long time. It feels like, not a really long time, but Schmidt had 24 played appearances and VR only has 17. So, it does feel to me like VR’s been up like just as long and hasn’t played as much. I’m just guessing they’ve faced fewer lefties, but he doesn’t really pinch hit for, you know, Wade or whoever because they don’t want to have a situation where they pinch hit with VR and then later in the game it’s a righty and then you’ve taken out Wade. But at this point, they’ve made a lineup change where Wade didn’t even start against a right-handed pitcher, Mel Kelly, yesterday, and they went with Flores at first base and Moss at DH. So that just adds to like uh you know offense that you want to see Moss come through and Flores has been clutch but nonetheless they’re missing these guys and I think you know Schmidt playing first base is suboptimal. You’re wasting a lot of his defensive value. So that would that will continue to be an issue if it is Schmidt that they bring back onto the roster and they would have to DFA David VR. They cannot just option him. So they do have the chance or potential to instead be like we’ll just stick with VR and option Casey Schmidt. Um, but Gerard and Carnosion and Tyler Fitzgerald specifically when those guys are back, I think that could potentially help you out a lot with Fitzgerald playing second and Gerard and Carnosion playing either DH or first base. But just in the lineup to give someone else a chance, clearly they’re willing to do it right now already with Wade not being in the lineup yesterday, the numbers are not good. And they would have a decision to make on Wade like do you because certain guys like Gerard and Carnosion will require a 40man move. They may they’re gonna potentially already have DFAD David VR although that would have leave them with an open 40man spot. So it’ll be interesting to see. But the point is that those guys can help and that at least with Fitzgerald, he’s probably closeish to returning and Encarnio, I think it’s the 26th of May that he would be eligible to come back. That’s the downside of putting a guy on the 60-day IIL and then they heal quickly is that they could really use him now, but they can’t bring him back until he’s eligible, and that’s not for a couple more weeks. So anyway, that is all the time we have for today. Thanks again for making Lockdown Giants your first listen today. For your second listen, check out the all-new Locked on MLB Game Night. Every game, every night, all season long. Get local analysis on a national scale. Find MLB Game Night on Locked on MLB on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcasts. Once again, my name is Ben Caspic. Check me out on Twitter or X, Ben Casp. If you like this show, please consider rating it or leaving a review. It helps me out so much. So, thank you in advance and thanks to everyone who’s done so already. I cannot wait to be with you again tomorrow. Thanks again for listening today. You are now locked on Giants.

Can the San Francisco Giants overcome their offensive struggles to secure a playoff spot? With their bats faltering for the third consecutive year, the SF Giants find themselves in a precarious position in the National League playoff race.

Host Ben Kaspick breaks down the Giants’ offensive woes, highlighting underperforming players like Willy Adames, LaMonte Wade Jr., and Patrick Bailey. Despite a recent losing streak, the Giants remain in wild card position, narrowly edging out the Cardinals (winners of nine straight) and the division-rival Diamondbacks. Kaspick also provides crucial injury updates on Tyler Fitzgerald, Casey Schmitt, and Jerar Encarnación, whose returns could be pivotal for the team’s offensive revival.

Will the Giants’ lineup adjustments and potential player returns be enough to turn the tide? Tune in for an in-depth analysis of the SF Giants’ playoff prospects and the impact of key roster moves.

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The best daily San Francisco Giants podcast. Whether the Giants are winning championships or retooling for another title run, Locked On Giants host Ben Kaspick—a lifelong Giants fan and former contributor for RotoGraphs and Beyond the Box Score—breaks down every game, rumor, and transaction in a way that’s data-driven and rational but also simple, passionate, and accessible to all.

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