Steve, Jesse and Adam discuss the Carolina Hurricanes decision to offer sheet Jesperi Kotkaniemi to a 1-year $6.1M deal. Was this strictly payback?
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26 Comments
At first, I thought this was the Canes' attempt at revenge for the Aho sheet, but after looking at it a bit, it feels like the Canes are trying to take their shot this year.
Maybe this is just the delusion of a Canes fan, but the Top 2 lines are set at this point (Aho-Svechnikov-Teravainen, Trocheck-Niederreiter-Necas). Even after that, you still have absurd depth with Stepan, KK, Jordan Staal, Jesper Fast, Martinook, and (probably) Ryan Suzuki as the pieces to build the bottom of the rotation.
I think it's motivated a lot by their injury experience in the playoffs last year, where they didn't have a single member of their 2nd line healthy for stretches against Tampa Bay. Maybe a little bit of an overreaction, and certainly a strain on the Canes cap, but it reads to me like they are fully in "Win or Bust" mode for 2021-2022.
This is false. If Montreal matches they will be under the cap because of Weber and Byron’s ltir. It’s been false reported by many so I don’t blame you, they’re forgetting about Byron being out 6 months. Both are offseason ltir.
I LOVE that Carolina didn't resign their Calder nominated goalie or Norris Nominated defenceman in order to offer sheet a 3rd liner for $6.1 million. 🤣 What a disaster.
Drop KK and make an offer sheet to Elias Pettersson
Check Cap friendly before you do a podcast please.
11 goals rookie season in 79 games. Ran out of gas and wasn't dressed final few games. Season 2, 6 goals in 36 games, sent to the AHL rest of season. Season 3, 5 goals in 52 games, benched last 2 games of SCF. 6.1 Million?? Yes he is still only 21 but after 3 years, I dont see him better than third line center at best. Cant skate and falls on his ass all the time. Take the picks and run!!!!
Maximum Chaos! Lol
adam looks like a chubby baby and I love him
I must admit that I prefered, by far, your setup during the pandemic. The way you have it now, you guys seem lost from one another. The other way was more intimate. Sad for the change.
Can you please do sharks break down of possible situations because of E Kane? He is great player but I'd rather keep hertl cuz he is beast and understands and learned from winning culture…
Can you please do sharks break down of possible situations because of E Kane? He is great player but I'd rather keep hertl cuz he is beast and understands and learned from winning culture…
To me it makes sense that Drouin should want to play center. He's probably the best on the team for finding that open space and entering the O zone. He's also one of the best playmakers on the team if not the best. And even though he's been playing wing, he's had a few years to learn about the defensive tasks of a centerman in the NHL.
Kotkaniemi turned 21 in July
And still Carolina seemed to forget they have to resign Necas and Bear, etc for the following years… it should be fun.
Ducharme scratched him during the playoffs just to motivate him
Im sorry but Dougie Hamilton is not worth 9 mil going into his mid 30s by contracts end. canes smart to let him walk. will miss his regular season production but is useless in the playoffs for a team like carolina who is trying to win a cup. they are way good enough to be able to miss his regular season production
No way they can match. But I wouldn't let him go. There's options
dont they teach french in school, dear Adam?
because they dont know hockey
Everyone seem to forget that KK career high is something like 11 goals and 37pts…
I listened on Apple Podcasts. I just wanted to see this new studio. Looks really good. 👍
Can’t wait to hear “The Hockey Guy” joining you.
4:00 I believe that there is a misleading statement here. Whichever team ends up with Kotkaniemi has until July 1st, 2022, to work out an extension, which can be lower than, equal to or greater than the $6.1 million Kotkaniemi will get this year. But Kotkaniemi's management team can screw over either the Habs or Canes over by not agreeing on a contract by that date. THEN (and only then), the organization Kotkaniemi plays for this year will be forced to qualify him at $6.1 million.
So really, Carolina has probably screwed THEMSELVES over here. If Montreal does not match, and Kotkaniemi doesn't have a breakout season, Carolina have just paid $6.1 million plus a 1st and 3rd-round pick for a bottom-6 forward. And knowing that his only chance at continuing to make the big bucks is to outwait the Canes and force them to qualify him at 6.1, what incentive does Kotkaniemi have to sign an extension before July 1? So, if it plays out like this, Carolina will have to contend with the sunk-cost fallacy (which is a really common issue in the NHL) – having sacrificed potentially valuable picks for Kotkaniemi (plus a boatload of money, which is an opportunity cost – they could have used that cash to acquire a better player, to keep Nedeljkovic, who projects as a pretty decent goalie, or to retain Dougie Hamilton*), they may feel like they have to keep on this path and pay Kotkaniemi more than he's worth AGAIN, rather than letting him walk as an unqualified UFA (and just hope like hell that he turns into a stud, despite all indications to the contrary).
This seems like the most likely scenario to me, out of the 4 possible permutations (i.e. Montreal matches and KK is worth the money; Montreal lets him walk and KK is worth the money; Montreal matches and KK is not worth the money; Montreal lets him walk and KK is not worth the money). I don't think they match, because I don't think they believe that KK will be a $6.1 million player in any of his remaining RFA years (which are going to be played in a flat cap situation). He is worth about half that now, and he might be worth ~$4.5 million by the time he's 24 (his last RFA year). So unless Kotkaniemi proves Montreal (and me) wrong and develops into essentially a low-end 1st-line center/winger (they are typically worth that much by the time their RFA status expires), Carolina is going to either be stuck paying him WAY more than he's worth (possibly more than $2 million in excess of his true value) for the remainder of his RFA years, or they're going to have to let him walk (which I think would be fine by Kotkaniemi – he wouldn't get 6.1 again as a UFA, but having even half-a-dozen teams competing for his services would raise his contract value above what Carolina would be offering him in the pre-July 1 extension talks).
Ultimately then, both teams probably end up as losers here. Montreal has wasted a 3rd overall pick on a guy out of whom they only got 3 inconsistent playing years…and Carolina has lost 2 reasonably valuable picks (obviously the 1st-rounder is the important one, but the more picks you make the more hits you have, and 3rd-round players hit about 33% of the time) and the possibility of acquiring a much better player this year on a misguided revenge quest (I still think that's what this is…they DEFINITELY didn't want to be paying this much for Kotkaniemi…their intention was to get Montreal to match, and end up in a deeper cap hell than they're currently in). But Montreal is in the better situation – at least they get those picks in an extremely deep draft to replace the pick they spent on Kotkaniemi. One of the two will likely become (at minimum) a middle-6 forward or middle-pairing defenseman, giving them in 3 or 4 years (max) roughly what they are losing in Kotkaniemi.
*Hamilton is obviously worth more than that, but the 6.1 would cover a large chunk of a new Hamilton contract.
Like it due covid not same room
Carolina think they are smart by signing kotkaniemi who isn't a proven number 1 center yet while also trading their number 1 goalie and calder trophy finalist and letting go their number 1 defenceman.
@8:39 I dare you to walk around Montreal saying that
HAHAHAAHA way to go Waddel! KK a total bust. Step down you're hurting the future of a very good team.