The [Hockey Prospecting](https://hockeyprospecting.com) model is based solely on point production so I think it’s very important to take this info with a grain of salt, as it obviously doesn’t consider *everything* about a prospect’s NHL outlook, but that is kind of the point lol regardless, it’s great info to have and keep in mind as we continually review the growing prospect pool through next season and beyond.
As has been the case for a while in this model, the skater pool is beloved but the goalie options are seen as pretty weak, which is enough to keep us out of the #1 overall spot. Which still seems like a totally fair criticism to me!
Brief summary of what the model strives to acheive:
>*Hockey Prospecting standardizes player scoring across the board and uses historical performances to chart how prospects will perform in the NHL. Our model removes intangible biases such as age, size, league, position and nationality. We do this by putting all players on the same playing field, based on their offensive production. Too often a player’s size, age or background is held against them. Not here.*
>***Top 5 Skater Prospects: Bedard, Levshunov, Korchinski, Reichel and Moore***
>*The Blackhawks top 5, which was solidified with the addition of Levshunov, is the best in the NHL. The Hawks top 5 likely has 2 maybe even 3 stars in it.*
>*The Hawks have been adding substantial depth to the system over the past 3 years as well.*
>*A stud goalie piece should be on the radar for the next few years.*
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Couple thoughts of my own:
– A few caveats with this model to keep in mind are that I believe players are no longer considered “prospects” once they reach 100 NHL games and the model only tracks through players Draft+3 season.
– With the 100 NHL game cutoff, that likely means that all of Reichel (99 GP), Vlasic (97 GP), and Bedard (68 GP) will be removed from the pool early on into the 2024-25 season. So basically let’s enjoy the hype now because our ranking will certainly drop by the end of 2024 until at least the 2025 draft haha!
– Reichel is rated so highly in this model because his development was [excellent since being drafted](https://imgur.com/a/dvBmss0), though with the cutoff being D+3 or the 2023 in Lukas’ case, this model gives literally no consideration to his dogshit 2024 season. While I think the clear YOY growth is reason enough to not give up on Reichel yet, last year obviously sours the outlook on him so I wouldn’t put too much stock into the current projection as shown in the OP.
– Many of our top young defensemen look terrible in this model, including Vlasic, but that is mostly because guys like him, Del Mastro, Allan, even Rinzel are more defensively minded players that have had questionable offense anyways. When looking at guys like that, we’ll have to accept the model is low on them and they likely won’t be big point producers, but that doesn’t mean they still won’t be bonafide NHL players. Vlasic, for prime example, is literally a top 4 player at worst already lol though same as Reichel, the model doesn’t capture his great 2024 season so the outlook is low on him anyways even before getting into his focus on the ice.
– Nazar’s projection is significantly hampered by him missing his 2023 season to injury so it will be interesting to see how that changes with the upcoming season. While I want to say he’s way underrated here, a player’s D+1 season is very important to development so it’s not unreasonable to say his projection was hurt a lot, or at least his timeline extended, by that injury.
– I love seeing lower round players hitting big on potential here, like recent 3rd rounder John Mustard and 2023 3rd round pick Jiri Felcman. For the latter, I found [this article from DobberProspects](https://dobberhockey.com/2024/04/06/the-journey-revisiting-star-potential-in-the-2023-draft-class-part-two/) that touches on his super interesting growth this past season. We obviously shouldn’t hold out hope that Felcman is actually one of our best prospects, but he’ll be a fun case to watch moving forward. Here is the insight from Dobber to help give context to the projection:
>*Jiri Felcman came out of nowhere this year. I have never actually seen a prospect go from 0% star potential in his draft year to 24% the following. What an insane jump! After one year in the Swiss junior league, this former third-round pick is right behind Leo Carlsson? There is much more to the story here—namely that very few NHLers have ever followed Felcman’s particular route up through the Swiss U-20-Elit league, so the model has very little to work with by way of historical comparables. He scored 31 points in 40 games there last year, and followed that up with 23 in 26 this year, including brief low-scoring stints in the top-two men’s leagues.*
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[Complete list of prospects in the current pool](https://imgur.com/a/e1Kqanj)
The [Hockey Prospecting](https://hockeyprospecting.com) model is based solely on point production so I think it’s very important to take this info with a grain of salt, as it obviously doesn’t consider *everything* about a prospect’s NHL outlook, but that is kind of the point lol regardless, it’s great info to have and keep in mind as we continually review the growing prospect pool through next season and beyond.
As has been the case for a while in this model, the skater pool is beloved but the goalie options are seen as pretty weak, which is enough to keep us out of the #1 overall spot. Which still seems like a totally fair criticism to me!
Brief summary of what the model strives to acheive:
>*Hockey Prospecting standardizes player scoring across the board and uses historical performances to chart how prospects will perform in the NHL. Our model removes intangible biases such as age, size, league, position and nationality. We do this by putting all players on the same playing field, based on their offensive production. Too often a player’s size, age or background is held against them. Not here.*
Full ranking of the entire league is posted [here](https://x.com/ByronMBader/status/1809275023636722010) by Bader, or here is a [non-Twitter link](https://i.imgur.com/xoUkuZD.jpeg) for the photo, though the Twitter chain has some good follow up info.
—-
Notes from Bader himself on the pool:
>***Top 5 Skater Prospects: Bedard, Levshunov, Korchinski, Reichel and Moore***
>*The Blackhawks top 5, which was solidified with the addition of Levshunov, is the best in the NHL. The Hawks top 5 likely has 2 maybe even 3 stars in it.*
>*The Hawks have been adding substantial depth to the system over the past 3 years as well.*
>*A stud goalie piece should be on the radar for the next few years.*
—-
Couple thoughts of my own:
– A few caveats with this model to keep in mind are that I believe players are no longer considered “prospects” once they reach 100 NHL games and the model only tracks through players Draft+3 season.
– With the 100 NHL game cutoff, that likely means that all of Reichel (99 GP), Vlasic (97 GP), and Bedard (68 GP) will be removed from the pool early on into the 2024-25 season. So basically let’s enjoy the hype now because our ranking will certainly drop by the end of 2024 until at least the 2025 draft haha!
– Reichel is rated so highly in this model because his development was [excellent since being drafted](https://imgur.com/a/dvBmss0), though with the cutoff being D+3 or the 2023 in Lukas’ case, this model gives literally no consideration to his dogshit 2024 season. While I think the clear YOY growth is reason enough to not give up on Reichel yet, last year obviously sours the outlook on him so I wouldn’t put too much stock into the current projection as shown in the OP.
– Many of our top young defensemen look terrible in this model, including Vlasic, but that is mostly because guys like him, Del Mastro, Allan, even Rinzel are more defensively minded players that have had questionable offense anyways. When looking at guys like that, we’ll have to accept the model is low on them and they likely won’t be big point producers, but that doesn’t mean they still won’t be bonafide NHL players. Vlasic, for prime example, is literally a top 4 player at worst already lol though same as Reichel, the model doesn’t capture his great 2024 season so the outlook is low on him anyways even before getting into his focus on the ice.
– Nazar’s projection is significantly hampered by him missing his 2023 season to injury so it will be interesting to see how that changes with the upcoming season. While I want to say he’s way underrated here, a player’s D+1 season is very important to development so it’s not unreasonable to say his projection was hurt a lot, or at least his timeline extended, by that injury.
– I love seeing lower round players hitting big on potential here, like recent 3rd rounder John Mustard and 2023 3rd round pick Jiri Felcman. For the latter, I found [this article from DobberProspects](https://dobberhockey.com/2024/04/06/the-journey-revisiting-star-potential-in-the-2023-draft-class-part-two/) that touches on his super interesting growth this past season. We obviously shouldn’t hold out hope that Felcman is actually one of our best prospects, but he’ll be a fun case to watch moving forward. Here is the insight from Dobber to help give context to the projection:
>*Jiri Felcman came out of nowhere this year. I have never actually seen a prospect go from 0% star potential in his draft year to 24% the following. What an insane jump! After one year in the Swiss junior league, this former third-round pick is right behind Leo Carlsson? There is much more to the story here—namely that very few NHLers have ever followed Felcman’s particular route up through the Swiss U-20-Elit league, so the model has very little to work with by way of historical comparables. He scored 31 points in 40 games there last year, and followed that up with 23 in 26 this year, including brief low-scoring stints in the top-two men’s leagues.*
No nezar how bizarre.
That goalie rank tho, ouch
Excited for our future…need goalie!!!