An extensive and possibly nonsense analysis of the Eastern playoff race at the beginning of a trying stretch for the Detroit Red Wings

Earlier this week, we learned that Red Wings captain Dylan Larkin will be out for at least a handful of games with a lower body injury. When you consider that this is very much a make-or-break stretch for the Wings, Larkin going down is bad news for the Wings, there’s simply no two ways about it. Given that the playoff race is heating up with the Islanders surging and Philly and Tampa both keeping pace, there are probably a lot people feeling a little spooky about the next couple of weeks for the Red Wings. Are we boned?

# The Situation in the Atlantic

The teams that are “in the hunt” in the Atlantic are cooked. The Habs are rebuilding (but still holding their own out there on any given night), the Summer of Pierre has transformed into an endless winter of discontent for the Sens, and we find ourselves once again saying “surely next year will be the year for the Sabres.” Surely.

While there’s still an outside chance the Sabres could push for a wild card spot, it’s not at all likely. Simply put, they have a lot of ground to make up and an ever-shrinking number of games in which to do it. Boston, Florida, and Toronto seem pretty well entrenched in their divisional spots, leaving Tampa and Detroit as the teams in the Atlantic competing for the wild card spots. One of those two teams could push for the third spot in the Atlantic if the Leafs stumble, but we could very well see a situation where the playoff spread is 5 teams from the Atlantic and 3 teams from the Metro. This would be great for Wings fans, of course, and there would doubtless be much celebrating and merriment should this prove to be the case.

# The Situation in the Metro and the True Wild Card Race

The separation in the Metro is quickly becoming too large for several teams to overcome. Outside of stringing together a beefy winning streak, we’re nearing the point where we can count the Devils, Caps, and Penguins out of the playoff race. We’re not there yet – I did NOT say we’re there yet, mind you, especially when all three teams have superstars who are capable of willing their teams to the playoffs – but these three teams have to put something together VERY QUICKLY if they want to stay in the conversation.

Assuming they don’t (and that seems to be a reasonable assumption given the recent play of all three teams), that leaves three playoff spots for four teams – two wild card spots and the third seed in the Metro division.

Given the fact that we’re tied with Philly in points and have two games in hand on them, they’re the team that’s most at risk if the Islanders continue surging and keep this win streak rolling. As long as we manage to keep even a single point on Philly, they’re the ones who will lose if the Islanders aren’t stopped, as the Isles will leap-frog the wild card spots for third in the Metro and kick the Flyers out of the playoff picture.

The key to getting into the playoffs is not to stay ahead of both the Isles and Flyers – we just need to stay ahead of one of them. Stay ahead of Tampa and it doesn’t matter if both the Islanders and Flyers keep themselves in the playoff conversation. **In short, if the Wings stay ahead of any of the Isles, Flyers, and Bolts, they’re likely in the playoffs** (as long as the assumptions laid out at the beginning of this section pan out)**.**

# How Doable is Such a Feat?

Obviously, it’s easy to say “oh just stay ahead of these dorks and you’re in the playoffs,” but the Wings actually have to do it, which could prove to be a challenge with Larkin out. I won’t lie to you: Larkin is the heart and soul of the Red Wings and not having him on the ice will certainly be a huge detriment to this team. However, there are a few things we can look at that may ease worries that this team is about to tank without Larkin on the roster.

First, we can take a look at [Tankathon’s remaining strength of schedule](https://www.tankathon.com/nhl/remaining_schedule_strength) (SOS) to see at a glance how the Wings match up against the teams they’re competing with for a playoff spot. This is the section of the table we’re most interested in:

[Hardest remaining opponents on the left, easiest on the right](https://preview.redd.it/r93qydu0gqmc1.png?width=854&format=png&auto=webp&s=f30084ce5728efe19fe94d94cd7b4c22caaeffba)

Of the four teams I’m counting in contention for these remaining three playoff spots, Philly has the hardest remaining schedule. The Red Wings and Bolts are essentially tied when it comes to remaining SOS, which is good for us because Tampa has its own struggles it’s trying to work through and the Wings have been consistently good throughout 2024 so far.

As you can see, the Islanders have the easiest SOS of the four, and this is where things start to feel a little nervous. They’re currently on a four game winning streak and they have the opportunity to really rack up some points down the stretch. But again, it doesn’t matter if they keep surging as long as the Wings can manage to stay ahead of Philly and/or Tampa, and I would say just by looking at SOS, the Wings have a decent shot of doing that. Of course, it would be better if Patrick Roy’s Islanders could eat a bag of dicks and leave us alone, but alas.

Oh, and that stuff I said about Pittsburgh, New Jersey, and Washington needing to put something together soon if they want to stay in the conversation? Well womp womp motherfuckers! Going by SOS, that won’t be easy, because they’re all in the top 10:

[Brutal, savage, rekt](https://preview.redd.it/p02w8e92iqmc1.png?width=879&format=png&auto=webp&s=f30a9e3dd2d9401d9bb132d06ff0237a8cccaa7a)

# The Schedule While Larkin is Out

There is no doubt in my mind that this stretch while Larkin is out will prove to be the do or die moment for the Red Wings’ playoff ambitions. If he comes back and they’re still in a playoff spot, then I think the Wings will be heading to the playoffs for the first time in 8 years, and to that I say “giddy up bitch!”

So, what does the schedule look like while Larkin is out? So glad I asked that question on your behalf:

[Red Wings schedule, March 3rd – March 23rd](https://preview.redd.it/zue0yy9rkqmc1.png?width=1264&format=png&auto=webp&s=a617713be40d8fe5a09db7f239d0aeea21f06cba)

We don’t know when, exactly, Larkin will be back, but if the estimate of two weeks holds, then he will hopefully be ready to go in time for the Islanders game on the 21st. In this stretch, the hardest opponents are definitely the Avs tonight and the Golden Knights on Saturday, March 9th. We know that we’re working uphill facing the Avs without Larkin, and even with the Knights’ recent struggles, it would be foolish to assume a Red Wings win there. The Penguins could prove to be a challenge too – Crosby, Malkin, and Letang still have plenty of gas left in the tank and can never be counted out.

Teams prove multiple times every season that there are no easy games in the NHL, but on paper, the Wings should be able to pick up wins against the Yotes, Sabres, and Blue Jackets, even without Larkin. For the first time in years, Larkin is not solely carrying this team on his back. We will miss his presence on the ice, for sure, but we have a ton of offensive depth, a decent enough blue-line roster, and a surprisingly effective goalie tandem in Lyon and Reimer that can allow us to squeeze out these wins while he’s away. Seriously, stop sleeping on Reimer and dreading the games he’s in net; he is not starting goalie material anymore, but he is straight up flourishing in his backup position.

No one wants to see their captain go down, but it is a bit serendipitous that he’s going out now, ahead of one of the easier stretches the Wings have had in 2024.

# The Points Situation

If the Wings can manage to go .500 in this stretch while Larkin is out, which is definitely a reasonable expectation looking at the teams they’ll play, then they will absolutely still be in the conversation for the playoffs and likely not on the outside looking in when he returns. I say that because, if we assume 96 points is the threshold for making the playoffs (which I’m not certain of – someone with a better noggin for math can probably get us a more accurate estimate), the Wings only need to play a *skosh* over .500 for the rest of the season to meet that threshold (that “skosh” was for you, Keats).

There are 21 games remaining for the Wings, which means a total of 42 points are up for grabs, with the Wings currently sitting at 72 points. If 96 is the threshold, the Wings will need to get 24 of those points, whether that’s through winning 12 of the remaining 21 in regulation or some mix of regulation and overtime wins/losses.

# It’s the Tiebreaker with the Steel Chair!

So it’s the end of March and the Red Wings have blown it with Larkin out. Tampa has locked down the first wild card spot, and somehow Philly pulled it together and didn’t let the Islanders leap frog them. This leaves the Wings once again battling with Patrick Roy, this time for the final wild card spot in the East. Goody us.

While this seems like a worst-case, sound-the-alarms type scenario (and it could very well be, at least as far as our playoff aspirations for this season are concerned), the Wings could still have an ace up their sleeve here.

Should the Red Wings and Islanders wind up tied for that last wild card spot at the end of the season, the first tiebreaker would be regulation wins. The Islanders have a reputation as overtime merchants this season, and that reputation is well earned. We’re three quarters of the way through the season and the Isles only have 19 regulation wins to their name. The Wings aren’t doing particularly stellar on that front themselves, with 23 of our 33 wins coming in regulation, but we still have a nice buffer on the Isles in that regard.

Since the entire league is all-in on goofy hockey this season, what happens if the Wings and Isles end up tied in points AND regulation wins? Well good news: at the time of this writing, the Wings win the second tiebreaker as well. Regulation/overtime wins (ROW) is the second tiebreaker, and the Wings currently have 31 compared to the Isles’ 26. Somewhat impressively, the Wings have only gone to the shootout twice this season, while the Islanders have been there five times (losing four of them). And unless we completely blow it down the stretch, the Islanders’ staggering number of overtime losses likely means the third tiebreaker – overall wins – goes to the Wings too. But it probably won’t come to that, right? Right?

# Have faith, child, for Patrick Kane has arrived

So this is a whole lot of words to answer the question of whether or not the Wings are screwed with a big fat “maybe, maybe not.” *However*, a beyond amazing January and February for the Red Wings means that there are a lot of things playing in the team’s favor, even while Larkin is out. As long as the Wings can keep their heads above water while he’s out, they’ll still be in it when he comes back.

We have the roster to pick up the slack. We have the goaltending to support a diminished forward core. And, perhaps most importantly, we have a Patrick Kane.

[Patrick Kane, Destroyer of Worlds](https://i.redd.it/4l6mmv5uvqmc1.gif)

The Wings have the grit and determination to hang in there and pick up fat dubs while Larkin is down. If there’s one thing this team has proven time and time again throughout this season, it’s that they don’t quit when the cards are stacked against them, and you can bet your ass that’ll be true down the stretch, too.

by culturedrobot