Short Shifts 2020-02-14: In With the Oldofsson
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Delivered straight to your door with drizzly or instacart celebrate responsibly Kors Brewing Company Golden Colorado what’s up folks and welcome to another installment of the keeping Carlson short shifts podcast I am your host Ben Bernett joining me as always my co-host Lewis Ezekiel and that e is for eviscerate which is what we saw Zack cashion try to do to Eric chernack today
Lewis did you catch the Carnage in Edmonton well luckily I don’t think we saw anything that was supposed to be inside somebody coming out but let’s just here listen in hockey we’re blasting around the ice at high speed we have extremely sharp knives strapped onto our feet
Should not be kicking people with those feet Zack cashion where is the sense you were born with this episode opening lecture is brought to you by Dads Dads we’re just curious why you’re acting the fool well I was acting the fool off top because this game is taking place in
Tampa Bay so if you are a scrutinizing listener I’m sorry for screwing that up leis let’s get right into our show of course we are brought to you by keeping Carlson and you can become a patron of keeping Carlson and hang out with us on Facebook at keeping carlson.com Patron
Five bucks a month you get to hang out in the keeping Carlson Facebook group and on Saturday once again I’ll be I will be handling the weekly streaming show where I am joined by a guest this week it will be Victor Nuno who’s a friend of the podcast and co-hosts a
Dynasty show with Jesse seir on The Fan trcks Network um folks I hope you’ll become patrons come hang out with us on Saturday but for tonight of course we will start where we spent most of Tuesday just talking about the Fallout from all of the injuries that were
Somewhat fresh a few days ago and we have a little bit more information to go off of now uh in addition to all of the injuries in Tampa Bay you know we saw Stam Co COV Celli and mcdna out we’ve now seen Mel sergachev Andre palot and
Tyler Johnson on the top power play in Tampa Bay we’ve also seen a swap Andre burkovski is now on line one and power play one while Unice dony has shifted down off that top power play unit and we had confirmation shortly after we finished taping the show on Tuesday that
Kyler Yamamoto is line one and Power Play One in Edmonton with Conor McDavid out what do we think about how what level are we excited about any of these members that we talked about on Tuesday Lewis all right um I think I want to start with Yamamoto we start where we
Finished off you know I was into yam before McDavid went down um although I did last episode say that I thought that everyone was going to suffer from mcdavid’s exit and absence uh and you were actually right that Yamamoto was going to benefit from some increased ice
Time and he’s even gotten a little bit of extra power play exposure allowing him to get a power play goal the other night uh he’s been really great and I think I am holding on to him as long as he’s playing with dry sidol I am still a
Little bit worried about other teams loading up against what is now the Oilers top and really only only line but it seems like they have been successful so far and haven’t split them up so hopefully it’ll stay with that the next person that I am excited about would be
Burkovski uh obviously getting that line one power play one deployment for Colorado is also very exciting uh I’d love to see burkovski do a little more than he’s been able to do so far um uh as far as all of the mass going on in Tampa Bay I’m not so into it simply
Because I think with all of the unknowns about who’s out and who’s going to be back when you know we thought Stam Coast was maybe minor but he didn’t end up making it back for Thursday night’s game there’s just too much uncertainty you know we think of Tampa Bay obviously is
Having that outstanding top power play and you want to have whoever’s on the top line or even maybe in the top six but there’s just not a whole lot to go around when the players who are injured are damcos and kerov and even Celli who’s been really excellent um
Especially as kind of from a defensive standpoint I’ve seen some people saying he should be in the selky com uh conversation yeah he’s having a phenomenal year and has even sniffed fantasy relevance reminds me quite a bit about Shan cier a player who years ago fantasy GMS weren’t really excited about
But you know fantasy or uh NHL analysts were saying this is a guy who’s severely underrated I think Anthony Celli is entering that sort of early career Shan couturier face not to say that one day he’ll become a 70-point center on the top line but one can dream yeah uh H how
About you your thoughts on kind of how you would rank these uh injury Fallout beneficiaries yeah I think barovsky and Yamamoto are in a class of their own at the top Andre palot is interesting to me on the top unit but lacking Stamkos and kov is not exciting and so all of those
Guys are a little bit downgraded for me I like sergachev a little bit more than I did yesterday with mcdna out all of that stuff just the deployment is has a much higher ceiling than we’re used to seeing with him Unis dony Off Top Line
Off top power play is a bit of a streaming a streaming situation for me and the same with Tyler Johnson not much more to say about that so we’ll shift to the goal tending situation in New York where Igor shurkin missed tonight’s game with an injured ankle but interestingly
David Quinn today said he is the number one moving forward that shouldn’t be shocking but what is kind of odd about this is we still see the three-headed monster in New York I believe this means that eigor will continue to get the majority of the starts so long as he
Remains consistent but what are we going to see with those number two number three will georgiev and lennquist rotate in so they basically are both half of a backup goenda yurkin roster unless you’re streaming yeah I feel like the only thing I would really want to do is
Stream one of those rangers goalies in potentially for a favorable matchup I don’t know how many matchups are favorable with their porousness on defense but um yeah I think until we kind of get a better sense moving forward over the next couple weeks of how many starts they’re really going to
Give shis Durkin if he can continue to perform with this really Elite level that he’s been at uh I think those questions still remain to be answered right now it could just be a short hot streak yes I know he’s been unbelievably successful at every level where he’s
Played up to this point but I’m really trying to modulate my enthusiasm about shesterkin after the samsonov miscalculation you know and and eigor has more better performing goalies to compete with than Sam sonov had but Sam sonov never clearly ascended above a 1B option and David Quinn’s statement about
Shirkin being the number one option is really heartening for people who picked him up I definitely wouldn’t want hold either other goalie I really just think we need to keep watching and see if and when sherkin demonstrates that he is a mortal uh and at that point maybe start
Thinking about uh georgev or lanquist a little bit more if they’re really each going to be half a backup that is way outside the range of something that I’d be interested in leis I didn’t think you were going to be able to do it but of course I shouldn’t have doubted you you
Were able to work ilas Samson off into tonight’s show I’m starting to think that maybe we should get you a spin-off shorter shifts podcast where you just get to share your Elia Sam sonov thoughts every single night Sam sonov chefs there you go yeah uh to me I don’t
I don’t think about Ilia Samson off to the same level as you but yeah I think shurkin is actually like a a relatively usable goalie and I I think that we’ve seen more confidence put in him than we’ve seen in I know it’s kind of the
The comparison isn’t one to one to me at all because I don’t think that we’ve heard any sort of confidence being put into Sam sonov as a Workhorse or as a number one one so to me I think that there’s much more reason to be excited about
Eigor yeah definitely I I I’m I’m trying to say that you know I made a mistake previously being such a big time Delila for my Samson and uh that I think now you know definitely hearing that news about shiskin is great uh and I think I
Just want to kind of watch how it continues you know I’m holding him all over the place so I’m not going to dump him anytime soon but I am wondering you know is there another shoe that’s going to fall at some point the delil or Samsung is a good one I’m a little
Disappointed you didn’t save it for Samsung shifts but whatever we’ll move on we’ll talk about uh next another Russian Alexander rajula out for tonight’s game and likely two more as the Stars placed him on the injured reserve list as a result the Stars called up Prospect Jason Robertson and
Immediately put him right on Power Play One the stars do have a a weekend back to back are we interested in a short-term stream of Jason Robertson you know I’m not sure how how excited I can get about a power play one that includes Robertson yanm Mark in this year’s
Edition of King cang uh obviously having some access to Jamie Ben who’s been much improved lately and Tyler Sean is exciting but this is a wait and seee situation for me I’m going to check ice time uh after Thursday’s game um but I’m willing to bet there’s more appealing
Options out there in your league I prefer almost everyone we discussed last episode in our free agent ad section even before Robertson playing on the top power play let’s say Unice dansco and Jason Robertson you’re taking dcoy still yeah I mean you know the opportunity is interesting but like I’ve literally
Never heard of Robertson before this evening so I think uh I’ll go with a more proven commodity here I think I’m with you I mean it’s tough to get too excited about anyone getting suddenly solid deployment in Dallas given the line blender and the fact that no one
Seems to have a grip on actual Elite ice time so that’s fair I just thought he was an interesting name and to see him come up and immediately get that shot shows that the stars are at least excited by the possibility of getting him into the roster sooner than later
Sure and the game’s not over yet we could wait and find out that you know he was getting some very nice exposure maybe they’re putting him you know giving him some sheltered minutes and giving him a chance to be successful at the NHL level uh and then maybe it makes
Sense to fit him in for that back toback it’s a good point Lewis we have one more headline and oh my God it’s an outy Victor Olson is back very exciting no points tonight so far but he is right back up on line one power play one I
Don’t think this changes too much so I don’t have a ton to say about it but perhaps we see a normalized power play one which could be good for dare I say it Jeff Skinner well of course this would happen the week where I’m up against Jeff Skinner in my most
Competitive match but you know I I’m you know I think I’m going to wait and see what happens there Skinner has been such an enormous disappointment that you know it would take quite a bit for anything to move the needle for him uh in my opinion but that being said I know the
Sabes are going to be glad to have Vic the stick back he was providing them lots of really useful uh offense earlier in the season it does kind of seem like he got figured out a little bit as time went on uh and hit a bit of that rookie
Wall um but if he is able to recapture that magic I’m certainly desperate for any sort of offense in Buffalo as a jack eel holder in numerous leagues so I welcome back uh Victor Olson and I hope he can be very successful uh and put himself in a position to be very
Interesting when you are making your rankings for next season’s draft honestly I’d be pretty heartened to see Jeff Skinner on my opponent’s lineup at this point like he’s been so bad we do have a Victor olison power play goal after finishing up that little segment so that’s excitement that’s that is
Exciting I am not quite as heartened about J Skinner as you know I maybe suggested earlier but he is on that top power play unit once again so maybe things can turn around fortunes can change for a once profitable Skinner all right well Lewis let’s get into our
Final segment of the night the patron 5 of course I mentioned the keeping Carlson Patron only Facebook group earlier every single week we have the patrons vote on five players they want us to Deep dive tell us a little bit more about their fortunes whether or not they’re doing anything sustainable or
Things that they should be worried about regressing of course we do this and I am going to start with the first member of this week’s list and that player is Ryan Graves Patron Dan asked simply how is he doing this dot dot dot well asked Dan I appreciate that
Question uh let’s start off with the 34 Point Pace that is not an eye popping amount for any defenseman but he has been excellent at accumulating peripheral stats Graves is putting up useful numbers across several categories including hits shots pims notably blocks where he ranks in the top 10 in the
League but the wildest thing of course about graves’s game is his ridiculous plus 41 rating where he’s easily lapping the field he’s plus 11 over the second place douge Hamilton who’s obviously done for the year since 2010 that is the second best mark a player has managed
Over a full season and he reached it in just 54 games he’s currently pacing for the best plus minus performance we’ve seen since Wayne Gretzky put up a very nice plus 69 in 1987 I personally do not love using plus minus in leagues as obvious as as made
Notable by the fact that I don’t think we’ve ever mentioned it on short shifts before but obviously if you have him in a league where it counts you’re riding him there and since he’s on this list I do think it Bears mentioning I wrote a
Column for Dober last week in my geek of the week column where I I listed Graves as a great buy before the playoffs because Colorado has an excellent week 21 and 22 schedule they’ve got a backtack stream aami meaning they play Monday Wednesday Friday Sunday all off
Day nights so grab Graves if you can my theory is you’re not going to Target him in a trade cuz like what really are you going to give up to to add Ryan Graves so instead I would try and get him as a throwin for a bigger piece and kind of
Try and disguise the fact that you’re adding someone who’s going to give you a nice little bump in a ton of multicat categories hopefully you can cheer him on while he takes a shot at this particular Wayne Gretzky Milestone yeah really nice I appreciate also that you
Added in the uh mandatory in 2020 recommendation that you avoid any Leagues with plus minus but I never would have thought to check uh that’s an outstanding statistic really interesting obviously Colorado is out there you know outscoring everybody and if Graves is blocking everything that comes towards
The goalie while he’s out there it’s going to be tough for his opponents to to get goals to hit him for a minus you know you talked about a 34 Point pace for a defenseman being nothing to write home about what if we talk about a
Forward on a 37o pace I’m ready for it so our next question and our next member of the patron five is Joe pavelski the question is is he a hold rest of season after this recent hot streak uh before we get to talking about the hot streak
Let’s put this into context what an infuriating fantasy owned pavelski has been this year uh he has endured CLE streaks of one point in eight games two points in nine games one point in 11 games and of course two points in the first 13 games that likely saw many of
His owners drop him not long after picking him up but he was on the longest hot streak of his season with six points over the last five games an improved shooting rate and Monster Power Play minutes including above or near 5 minutes of power play time the last two
Games before he left with an upper body injury that upper body injury remains mysterious and we do not know when he may be coming back so before we talk any more about the injury looking at the deeper stats pavelski certainly has room for positive regression he’s got three
Even strength goals when his individual expected goals uh they think he should be closer to eight uh he’s shooting as poorly as he ever has in his career at even strength 4.35% compared to last year’s 16.15 so nearly a 3/4 drop off and a career average over 10% so there’s certainly
Room for improvement there you know and he’s clearly just trying to figure out how he fits into this Dallas offense with a mere 34.62% 34% right now now I don’t know if that’s something that can be fixed during the course of the Season uh maybe it’s just a bad fit maybe there’s
Something about pavel’s game that has changed considerably but it it just looks pretty Grim you know there should be some more even strength assists out there you know a puck should bounce off him and some fall onto somebody’s stick and they can poke it in and there might
Be more assists available on the power play as well um you know his IP is a little bit low there we know as a netf front guy pavelski isn’t counted on much for setups but you know there may be some room there uh so pavelski is certainly capable of more and this
Recent burst is Testament to that fact but I’m a little wary of the idea that pavs will maintain that improved play coming off of this injury whenever that may be I think a much much milder positive regression away from that current 37o pace is more likely than the
Kind of performance we’ve seen over the last five games or even a 55o pace moving forward so I guess my answer to that is if holding a 55 point or less forward is valuable to you uh it may still be useful he’s certainly going to get nice exposure uh that other players
Scoring at that rate might not get but you know if he can continues converting at his current rate it’s going to be tough for him to be much more than a very deep piece sorry Lewis I don’t really understand what you mean a much milder positive regression away from the
37o pace what what do you mean by that yeah sorry I should clarify that so what I mean is I think that he has room for improvement certainly but he is not going to go from a 30 7 point Pace that he’s been on to the 90 point Pace that
He’s had over the past five games and I don’t think anyone would expect that but you’re saying closer to 50 to 55 points sorry exactly the third player on the patron 5 this week Jack Hughes number one pick of the New Jersey Devils Brandon wee who designed the beautiful
Short shifts logo that you are seeing on your podcast device right now asks is Jack Hughes about to take off while this hasn’t been the rookie season Jack Hughes was likely hoping for he’s currently only on Pace for 34 points on the season which I looked back that
Would be the lowest point production we’ve seen from a number one pick since nil Yakupov scored 31 in a lockout shortened 2013 NHL campaign that’s lower than 2 dmen including Aaron eblad were capable of putting up in their rookie season things really haven’t looked great on the stat sheet recently either
Despite having an eight shot game recently he only has 21 total shots in the past 10 games only four points in the 12 games since he returned from an injury which would give him a sub 30 point Pace on the year he is seeing a lot of power play time which is very
Positive but the Devils really aren’t as dangerous without Taylor Hall on the opposite side to rip uh Jack Hughes feeds home from there are a few under the hood numbers that should indicate Hughes is due some regression this year so his even strength shooting percentage is just under 4% % I’d expect that
Number to be at least around 10 moving forward same with his onai shooting percentage which is all the way down at 5.8 percentage if you regress those numbers I think Hughes would be in on Pace between 40 and 50 points most likely in the middle around 45 so in a
One-year League I’d say no the Hughes breakout isn’t worth holding on for if you’re in a keeper and you can afford to hold him for the stretch run I’d imagine better days are ahead or better years are ahead I should say but perhaps the best move would be to buy low if you’re
In a rebuilding year overall I’d say he’s not going to be a late entrance into this year’s cder race yeah I think you’re absolutely right and I like the suggestion as a possible by low you know he is competing in that Center position for you know against another number one
Overall he’s got the pedigree he’s got a quality skill set hopefully we’ll have some wings of quality available also in New Jersey at some point but you know a ton of talent down the middle middle in a potential Talent down the middle for the devils and hopefully down the line
We’ll see them get to exercise it a little bit more yeah and who knows they could be adding another top three pick to that group so we’ll see yeah certainly true all right my question is from Elon uh and he asks Jacob markstrom is he the number two goalie in fantasy
Hockey well let me tell you I’m playing against him this week and it feels like he is number one with a bullet with what done to me the last few games but I am here to throw some cold water on this suggestion um you know while I think
Connor huk or took AAS probably hold this title for their overall body of work this season behind Andre vasileski uh there are few goalies as hot as markstrom in the very short term and the others uh who have been nearly as hot have bigger question marks uh so Mackenzie Blackwood put up back-to-back
Shutouts and Igor shesterkin is off to this blazing six in1 record including back-to-back 42 save performance uh so that Trio right now is you know three extremely exciting uh goalies who are really making a name for themselves late here in the season markstrom arguably enjoys the most complete team
In front of him out of that group although all three have some pretty serious defensive issues that being said hot as he is recently he’s only a couple games removed from a pair of Sub 900 games preceded by a 905 and a 40 loss so the last two games do not erase the
Three games before that nor uh do any of those sets really Define him for the season there are some metrics in which markstrom is dominating he’s second in the league in all situations goals saved above average behind only Robin leoner and is fifth in the league in Delta save
Percentage which is the difference between his uh expected save percentage and his actual save percentage so he’s doing a nice job uh outpacing sort of the expectations for an average goalie in his position still I’m not ready to put him up with the vasilis and the RAS
Of the league yet uh he’s going to make for a very interesting offseason topic of discussion and target for a number of teams Vancouver included when he becomes a UFA at the end of the year so certainly games like his most recent uh shut out are going to put him in the
Conversation for many teams who are pursuing a possible number one so you mentioned Blackwood and churkin are those guys that you’re putting in this conversation of the top five top 10 no just people who like markstrom are extremely exciting here in the short term but certainly don’t measure up
Compared to you know what I think are those top three goalies that I mentioned in vasileski huk and Rask so far so would you put markstrom closer to the latter group or closer to that top three the numbers show markstrom definitely in you know the top range of
A lot of these valuable stats so I I would have him closer up near the near the hell book and R I think just because again the body of work for Blackwood and shesterkin shesterkin is too brief blackwoods is too spotty and he’s on not
A good enough team yeah I might have him poking up closer towards the hooks and Ras than I do the blackwoods and the shesterkin you know I think he’s really been excellent this season and probably belongs up there in the top 10 or maybe there’s even an argument to the top five
I’m not ready to go there yet but certainly not the number two goalie in fantasy hockey as the question was asked um but the number one goalie breaking heart this week in the cook up full I’m sorry to hear that I actually I think that I would put him right in that top
Five conversation to me I see vasileski there and then I don’t really see anyone close to vasileski I think it’s a big old jumble from there between Anderson heluk markstrom I actually would downgrade rasque from the group just because of his status as a 1A rather
Than a clear number one it really drops the ceiling a lot lower when you’re splitting starts like rasz another guy who I think is really due for a big second half would be Philip guow so that’s that’s the dark horse that I would put in this conversation the guys
Like shurkin and Blackwood who are very hot right now and I think have a lot of potential but I think that I would put them a lot closer to like the 10 to 15 range or like the bottom like the closer to 10 certainly than five yeah I think I
Need to see more games from shurkin and yeah Blackwood has been very exciting lately but uh there’s too much I think that I’m kind of nervous about although they did demolish the Red Wings which is you know what I kind of want them to be doing what they should be doing at this
Point in the season yeah uh just a quick add and I know people love these updates from games that are already over but uh Victor Olson from eel to win in overtime uh so very nice outing for him all right Lewis we have one more member of this
Week’s Patron 5 and it’s a dozy we’re going to talk about Alex De Brink at 21 years old DE Brink managed 41 goals and nearly topped a point per game one year later he is far from those Heights with only 36 points Through The Season’s 57
Games he’s pacing for only 52 over a full season the main issue here is that Alex dubret cannot buy a goal at even strength he’s shooting at a higher per 60 rate than he ever has before but he’s only scoring on 3% of those even strength shots after scoring around five
Times that much each of the past two years so that is bound to regress but to what extent right and the one area of du Brink’s game that hasn’t faltered is on the power play where he’s managed to score nine goals already and is shooting
At the same clip and what I what I mean by that is he’s shooting at the same per 60 rate that he reached on the power play last year unfortunately he’s recently been a casualty of a line mixup and is currently off the top power play in
Chicago it’s going to be tough for him to keep up that meager whatever meager production he’s managed without top power play duties so if dubret was shooting at his career even strength average to this point in the season he’d have 15 more goals this year which would
Leave him tied with artmi panan for ninth in the league so I’m not sure I’m ready to to forecast that level of regression just because we’ve seen a little bit more uncertainty in his deployment more recently you know he’s not playing with Patrick Kane he’s off
That top power play unit and I do think that that reduces what he could do moving forward from what he should have been doing in the first half of the season however I see Alex der Brett scoring more goals at even strength the rest of the year it just depends on how
Long cadin sticks with this configuration so given that deployment uncertainty I think a reasonable expectation for Alex to Brink it is around 70 points moving forward if you can buy low at this point in the year I think that that would be a good bet I’ve
Been a de Brink owner I kept him actually over last year in my keeper League hoping for some similar 41 is goal success there uh and obviously it’s been a huge struggle this season but I have some faith that the underlying numbers show that there is a better
Player in there you know like you you said right at the start at 21 years old right uh he got had that 40 goal season so he’s definitely still got that potential in him I don’t see him being an Alex galak type where we’ve already seen the best season that he’s going to
Put together necessarily um but interesting to see you know that uh he and Jeff Skinner you know pretty much have followed the same recipe here in this most recent season uh although definitely those underlying numbers look a lot more favorable for de Brink over Skinner all right Lewis we are out of
Time for myself Ben Bernett I’m signing off why don’t you take us home all right everybody thanks so much for tuning in if you haven’t already and if you are a patron please check out last uh Wednesday’s Patron cast it was really outstanding if you would like to
Become a patron all of those Patron casts will be available to you uh and thank you as always to Natural stat trick Yahoo fan tracks and Corsica hockey for helping with our research this episode until we see you next week play smart and keep your shifts short
On a very special episode of Short Shifts… the boys update a few injuries mentioned last week, plus an outjury to a special rookie in Buffalo, and then get into this week’s #Patron5. Players mentioned on this episode of Short Shifts include: Mikhail Sergachev, Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson, Joonas Donskoi, Andre Burakovsky, Igor Shesterkin, Alexander Georgiev, Ilya Samsonov, Alexander Radulov, Jason Robertson, Victor Olofsson, Jeff Skinner, Ryan Graves, Joe Pavelski, Jack Hughes, Jacob Markstrom, Mackenzie Blackwood, and Alex DeBrincat. Advertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
