Dom Luszczyszyn, the Athletic’s stats and hockey numbers guy, wrote his annual season preview for the Preds back in September. Let’s go back and see what they projected, what assumptions they made, and where they were right and wrong.
https://theathletic.com/4888404/2023/09/25/nashville-predators-season-preview-2023-24/
**”The Projection:”** 89.1 points, 36% playoff chance, 1% Stanley Cup chance.
**The reality:** 90 point (on pace for), MoneyPuck playoff odds 34.2%, .6% Cup chance.
**What they said:**
>The Predators don’t have the most impressive roster, but a couple of superstars plus some depth is enough to get them an 89-point projection. … A mushy-middle finish is where Nashville likely lands this season, though it is possible new coach Andrew Brunette can push the Predators further than expected.
**Player rankings** A comparison of their pre-season “Net Rating” with the mid-season rating.
Forsberg, McDonagh, Nyquist all hit their mark. Forsberg was projected to be the highest net positive on the team at +12, which he is at.
Novak, ROR, Evangelista (plus Smith and McCarron) are all out-performing their preseason rating, with Novak 2 points higher than projected.
Josi and Scheen are both 3 points lower, Barrie is -5, Pars and Lauzon both -2, and Cody Glass brings up the rear with a severe 11 points lower than projected.
Saros was not ranked in this index but he was listed as our best player, with a +18 net contribution. I don’t know where he’d rank today but he is currently 60th in the NHL when ranked by “Goals saved above expected” with at least 10 games played.
**What they got right, what they got wrong**
Kind of everything! They nailed the point projection, they just put the pieces in the wrong order. They assumed we’d be a team led by Josi and Saros and said Forsberg’s production was the wild card while ROR and Nyquist would have trouble keeping up. Meanwhile, Josi and Saros haven’t been nearly as productive while our first line is dominating.
They did get right that we would have issues with secondary scoring.
**Overall**
>The best case can go in two directions: A Saros-led team doesn’t just reach the playoffs but has the offensive support to go deep, or the Predators fall flat on their faces and end up with a super high draft pick that helps them land a young, franchise cornerstone.
>The worst case: Saros continues to mask the weaknesses in front of the crease and drags this team right to the middle. Management doesn’t move out pieces to push the process along with false hope of a deep playoff run. The team falls short of the postseason again and without a high pick to show for it. The Predators stay in limbo and end the year in disappointment.
by GMBarryTrotz
2 Comments
the worst case also seems the most historically likely…but maybe we’ll be surprised in the coming months
I’m hoping that humiliation on Tuesday wakes the team up for the best case scenario.