This feels like it speaks to the amount of randomness that is actually in hockey. With a bunch of randomness in the system, forecasts are gonna be $4!t with a whole lot of variance. I don't know that adding more variables or "better" variables will explain too much of the randomness and variance away. Hockey is just weird that way, IME.
What needs to be understood here, is that one should never pay any attention to these 'models' in the first place, ignore it. The reason why is simply the people who make these oh so wonderfully coloured charts are most likely have their own agenda behind these things and are trying to influence others to their point of view. Quite frankly, I think most of us have been around hockey and following our favourite teams long enough, to have an instinct for what will happen by playoff time, and if you have followed the league for long enough, you get a feel for the other teams in the league also. So to anyone reading this, I say don't sweat it, life is too short to worry about someones stupid pie chart and so called opinions, make your own opinions and just enjoy life.
Meh. I've never even heard of them before. But I don't gamble. LOL! No one knows what's going to happen in the future. Anyone who says they do is only trying take your money.
"During the first 20 games of each season, the team's performance from last season is factored in." Were currently at 21-23 GP, so don't get me wrong, I'm just saying this was a big reason as to why calculations were super wacky at the beginning of the season. The model probably hasn't fully updated yet, and it will definitely get better then.
I will still guarantee you that this is all about where people are placing their money on who is going to win. Just like the odds makers, they don't care who wins, only that the same amount of money gets bet on each team.
So I'm working on a predictive data model at the moment and I think I can shed some light on why teams like Vegas, NYR, and Boston have chances similar to lower-placed teams in the standings. If you look at possession metrics as they're derived today, all three of those teams are either below or just barely above 50% in stats like expected goals for percentage, Corsi, etc., and are comparable (at least in those metrics) to teams like Arizona and Minnesota. According to the data, they're getting by with a combination of strong goaltending and high shooting percentages, which over the long term has been shown to be hard to sustain (see: 2013-2014 Colorado Avalanche). Compare them to teams like Carolina, Florida, or LA who have much stronger possession metrics but not necessarily as strong of results in the standings, and that's where some of the disparity between standings and projected results comes into play. Another team that is having success like this is Vancouver, who are sub-50% in most possession metrics but have a goals-for percentage of over 60%, and everyone and their grandmother (outside of Vancouver fans) are expecting them to regress; it's hard for more data-driven models not to expect the same of Vegas, NYR, and Boston as well.
I think it's been said before as well but part of MoneyPuck's formula for playoff predictions accounts for how "easy" the path to the Cup is, so that's also why the Eastern conference teams have somewhat lower overall chances than lesser-talented Western teams.
If the rangers win the presidents cup which is very likely compared to how there playing,then there not winning the cup 🤪they’ll just take it all out of them in the regular season
People are way too gullible if graphs from external sources piss them off at all. Don't listen to any of them. It's just a group of people, or one person specifically, trying to get a reaction from different fanbases for clicks. These numbers you are seeing are guesstimates based on somebody's opinion. If they are calculating anything, the numbers they get out of it are completely irrelevant and false. Believing these numbers is like believing the earth is flat.
As if they had the Florida Panthers making it to the final last year, kicking the Bruins out first round, Toronto second round, and Hurricanes third. Like, you can't predict this sport. 😂
So, the Florida Panthers (2 points ahead of the leafs with 2 more games played) and the Detroit redwings (1 point ahead of the leafs with 1 more game played) are 5% and 22% more likely than the leafs to make the playoffs? What?
Your missing the whole point. Of course a team on a hot streak right now is not going to be ranked as highly as they are right now. They are on a hot streak. What matters is the qualities that will continue throughout the season.
Rangers fans act like no other teams exist in the NHL and if anything acknowledges teams other than the Rangers they lose their minds. The Hurricanes won the division last year and barely got any media attention. The press never stopped talking about the Rangers, even after they got knocked out.
It's still pretty early in the season and the Rangers aren't that far ahead from the competition.
I think the path to the cup for the west isn’t as difficult as the east. I know the west wins. But it’s because the east team is so beat up walking into the Stanley cup, it’s nearly impossible.
34 Comments
This feels like it speaks to the amount of randomness that is actually in hockey. With a bunch of randomness in the system, forecasts are gonna be $4!t with a whole lot of variance. I don't know that adding more variables or "better" variables will explain too much of the randomness and variance away. Hockey is just weird that way, IME.
Rangers suck go knights
Of course the thumbnail 🤣🫵
Rangers always fold that’s why they suck
So Arizona has a better chance to win the playoffs then Toronto?
I know TML have a lot of issues but this is silly.
What needs to be understood here, is that one should never pay any attention to these 'models' in the first place, ignore it. The reason why is simply the people who make these oh so wonderfully coloured charts are most likely have their own agenda behind these things and are trying to influence others to their point of view.
Quite frankly, I think most of us have been around hockey and following our favourite teams long enough, to have an instinct for what will happen by playoff time, and if you have followed the league for long enough, you get a feel for the other teams in the league also.
So to anyone reading this, I say don't sweat it, life is too short to worry about someones stupid pie chart and so called opinions, make your own opinions and just enjoy life.
Meh. I've never even heard of them before. But I don't gamble. LOL! No one knows what's going to happen in the future. Anyone who says they do is only trying take your money.
Rangers and Kings rematch please.
Something NHL related that Gary Bettman ISN'T responsible for. Wow. Ugh he should resign anyway
These predictions are seriously f*cked up
So Vegas has 10pp less chance to make the playoffs than the Kings?!?! 😳😳😳😳
how are the sharks even 0.1% and not zero?
As Devils fan, i love to hear you cry
how do the Wild, who never won a championship, who were 7/10/4, have a better shot than the defending champs?
Rangers fans; one of the few groups Ive seen booted from a punk show as a whole, that weren't implicitly Skins.
"During the first 20 games of each season, the team's performance from last season is factored in." Were currently at 21-23 GP, so don't get me wrong, I'm just saying this was a big reason as to why calculations were super wacky at the beginning of the season. The model probably hasn't fully updated yet, and it will definitely get better then.
Pretty simple, east is more stacked
I will still guarantee you that this is all about where people are placing their money on who is going to win. Just like the odds makers, they don't care who wins, only that the same amount of money gets bet on each team.
The Devils were in the exact same spot at the same time last year as the Rangers, chill your bias a bit.
As a wild fan. This is amazing
So I'm working on a predictive data model at the moment and I think I can shed some light on why teams like Vegas, NYR, and Boston have chances similar to lower-placed teams in the standings. If you look at possession metrics as they're derived today, all three of those teams are either below or just barely above 50% in stats like expected goals for percentage, Corsi, etc., and are comparable (at least in those metrics) to teams like Arizona and Minnesota. According to the data, they're getting by with a combination of strong goaltending and high shooting percentages, which over the long term has been shown to be hard to sustain (see: 2013-2014 Colorado Avalanche). Compare them to teams like Carolina, Florida, or LA who have much stronger possession metrics but not necessarily as strong of results in the standings, and that's where some of the disparity between standings and projected results comes into play. Another team that is having success like this is Vancouver, who are sub-50% in most possession metrics but have a goals-for percentage of over 60%, and everyone and their grandmother (outside of Vancouver fans) are expecting them to regress; it's hard for more data-driven models not to expect the same of Vegas, NYR, and Boston as well.
I think it's been said before as well but part of MoneyPuck's formula for playoff predictions accounts for how "easy" the path to the Cup is, so that's also why the Eastern conference teams have somewhat lower overall chances than lesser-talented Western teams.
If the rangers win the presidents cup which is very likely compared to how there playing,then there not winning the cup 🤪they’ll just take it all out of them in the regular season
heavily dislike gambling, but the vegas odds are much more reliable.
No amount of stats and advanced analytics can factor in "Puck Luck"
People are way too gullible if graphs from external sources piss them off at all. Don't listen to any of them. It's just a group of people, or one person specifically, trying to get a reaction from different fanbases for clicks. These numbers you are seeing are guesstimates based on somebody's opinion. If they are calculating anything, the numbers they get out of it are completely irrelevant and false. Believing these numbers is like believing the earth is flat.
As if they had the Florida Panthers making it to the final last year, kicking the Bruins out first round, Toronto second round, and Hurricanes third. Like, you can't predict this sport. 😂
So, the Florida Panthers (2 points ahead of the leafs with 2 more games played) and the Detroit redwings (1 point ahead of the leafs with 1 more game played) are 5% and 22% more likely than the leafs to make the playoffs? What?
I still think Edmonton is going to bomb, and McDavid and Draisaitl will both want out.
1:00 Ok, then do it.
Your missing the whole point. Of course a team on a hot streak right now is not going to be ranked as highly as they are right now. They are on a hot streak. What matters is the qualities that will continue throughout the season.
Rangers fans act like no other teams exist in the NHL and if anything acknowledges teams other than the Rangers they lose their minds. The Hurricanes won the division last year and barely got any media attention. The press never stopped talking about the Rangers, even after they got knocked out.
It's still pretty early in the season and the Rangers aren't that far ahead from the competition.
screw the rangers bro
When it comes to Money Puck, most of the time I simply say "Go home, Money Puck, you're drunk."
as a wild fan i laughed my ass off when i saw that chart
I think the path to the cup for the west isn’t as difficult as the east. I know the west wins. But it’s because the east team is so beat up walking into the Stanley cup, it’s nearly impossible.