The xGA numbers are unreliable for this team. The xGA numbers are artificially deflated because we do a great job of limiting the quantity we allow but the actual quality of chances we give up is pathetic. Last night was a perfect (if exaggerated) example of that. Schmid faced only 17 shots with the xGA on paper being 1.55. You cannot with a straight face tell me that was a 1.55 xGA game. This team is not going to do anything without drastically improving their defensive game. No goalie we possibly pick up is going to salvage this mess without going on an unsustainable hot stretch for a short period of time.
I’m not going to sit here and tell you the goalies are great because they’re not but people also need to stop deluding themselves into thinking the goalies are the only problem. It runs deeper than that and without first addressing those issues it won’t matter what random goalie we toss in net.
ozzman86_i-i_
so, by a country mile, our goalies face the most high-quality shots per game? all of the goalies on the best teams in the NHL face low quality shots?
Shouldn’t be a suprise to anyone who actually watches hockey this year, other than the devils.
Maybe now all of our analytical friends can come to their senses and understand what’s going on with this team right now.
Tuosma
Big reason I don’t buy this simply being just a goalie thing is because we had a lot of changes in the defensive group and none in the crease, but somehow we’re supposed to believe that both of our goalies forgot how to play their position at the same time over one summer?
If one of them was doing significantly worse than the other, then that would be one thing, but Vanecek’s sv% is down -3.2% and Schmid’s is down -3.1% from last season. That big and a *similar* swing with multiple goalies isn’t a coincidence.
This isn’t to excuse them. Schmid has struggled and Vanecek has straight up been so unreliable that his starts are always scary. I wanna keep Schmid, but we need someone better than Vanecek who can actually be leaned on, but nothing will truly change until they learn to play tighter defense, because if that doesn’t happen, we’ll get bounced by someone like Carolina every time in the playoffs.
Cum_on_doorknob
Yup, if we played with three guys back, you’d see our goalies numbers look great.
mustachiolong
So here’s the thing about using analytics and statistics. If you cherry pick any numbers you can prove your argument. A post from a couple of hours ago shows it’s only on the goalies. This is showing it’s the defense.
Analytics and numbers are useless isolated and need to be used all together to paint a whole picture.
A: Our system encourages our defense to attack the puck more than any other team in the league. When we played the Penguins reporters asked Graves about the difference in systems and Gravy broke it down very simply. This is why you see them step up into the play so much and often why they’re so out of position.
B. Our goaltenders are playing at a worse pace than expected. They are letting in more low danger shots than most teams.
C. Our young D is being exposed due to Lindy’s system. Severson is missed in Lindy’s system as the current system was devised with Severson being a key part of it. Luke has not been the one to one exchange that people were hoping but let’s be real that should be expected at his age.
It’s not just the D, it’s not just the goalies, it’s not just coaching it is literally a mix of all 3.
SubElitePerformance
What if, and do hear me out here, they both suck. They’re each bleeding into each other. D isn’t helping the G. G isn’t backing up the D.
Chicken and the egg situation.
Now, it’s a lot easier to address the G situation, **now**, than anything else.
Trying to blame one or the other is fucking reductive and frankly annoying.
Satanic_Doge
Finally a post/comments with some sense.
TronVin
#ITS BOTH
In fact, it’s the coaching, general management, defense, goalie, and injuries.
No team is this disappointing without multiple issues both on the team and behind the scenes.
facial
Both can be true. Our coaches can’t trust 1 goalie because his confidence is shot. So we’re putting all the pressure on a kid who should still be in the A getting reps and building his own confidence. He let in 2 goals on 3 shots in the 2nd of the last game.
masterofjay
Devils made me $15000 this year off bets, haven’t had this good of a year since 2015, vanecek ❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️
SIIB-ZERO
I’ve been saying this for weeks…..we have decent NHL starters not elite goaltenders but our defense is constantly allowing odd mad rushes, high percentage chances, and undefended skaters around our crease….and then we criticize Vanecek and Schmid for not producing miracles to keep us in games……….do those two need to tighten shit up? Yes they do…..the rebound control and positioning need to be better…..but short of an Ottenger or Shesterkin replacing our goalies without fixing the defensive structure/discipline won’t change much…it just means we might lose 5-3 instead of 6-3 on nights like Friday………
11 Comments
The xGA numbers are unreliable for this team. The xGA numbers are artificially deflated because we do a great job of limiting the quantity we allow but the actual quality of chances we give up is pathetic. Last night was a perfect (if exaggerated) example of that. Schmid faced only 17 shots with the xGA on paper being 1.55. You cannot with a straight face tell me that was a 1.55 xGA game. This team is not going to do anything without drastically improving their defensive game. No goalie we possibly pick up is going to salvage this mess without going on an unsustainable hot stretch for a short period of time.
I’m not going to sit here and tell you the goalies are great because they’re not but people also need to stop deluding themselves into thinking the goalies are the only problem. It runs deeper than that and without first addressing those issues it won’t matter what random goalie we toss in net.
so, by a country mile, our goalies face the most high-quality shots per game? all of the goalies on the best teams in the NHL face low quality shots?
Shouldn’t be a suprise to anyone who actually watches hockey this year, other than the devils.
Maybe now all of our analytical friends can come to their senses and understand what’s going on with this team right now.
Big reason I don’t buy this simply being just a goalie thing is because we had a lot of changes in the defensive group and none in the crease, but somehow we’re supposed to believe that both of our goalies forgot how to play their position at the same time over one summer?
If one of them was doing significantly worse than the other, then that would be one thing, but Vanecek’s sv% is down -3.2% and Schmid’s is down -3.1% from last season. That big and a *similar* swing with multiple goalies isn’t a coincidence.
This isn’t to excuse them. Schmid has struggled and Vanecek has straight up been so unreliable that his starts are always scary. I wanna keep Schmid, but we need someone better than Vanecek who can actually be leaned on, but nothing will truly change until they learn to play tighter defense, because if that doesn’t happen, we’ll get bounced by someone like Carolina every time in the playoffs.
Yup, if we played with three guys back, you’d see our goalies numbers look great.
So here’s the thing about using analytics and statistics. If you cherry pick any numbers you can prove your argument. A post from a couple of hours ago shows it’s only on the goalies. This is showing it’s the defense.
Analytics and numbers are useless isolated and need to be used all together to paint a whole picture.
A: Our system encourages our defense to attack the puck more than any other team in the league. When we played the Penguins reporters asked Graves about the difference in systems and Gravy broke it down very simply. This is why you see them step up into the play so much and often why they’re so out of position.
B. Our goaltenders are playing at a worse pace than expected. They are letting in more low danger shots than most teams.
C. Our young D is being exposed due to Lindy’s system. Severson is missed in Lindy’s system as the current system was devised with Severson being a key part of it. Luke has not been the one to one exchange that people were hoping but let’s be real that should be expected at his age.
It’s not just the D, it’s not just the goalies, it’s not just coaching it is literally a mix of all 3.
What if, and do hear me out here, they both suck. They’re each bleeding into each other. D isn’t helping the G. G isn’t backing up the D.
Chicken and the egg situation.
Now, it’s a lot easier to address the G situation, **now**, than anything else.
Trying to blame one or the other is fucking reductive and frankly annoying.
Finally a post/comments with some sense.
#ITS BOTH
In fact, it’s the coaching, general management, defense, goalie, and injuries.
No team is this disappointing without multiple issues both on the team and behind the scenes.
Both can be true. Our coaches can’t trust 1 goalie because his confidence is shot. So we’re putting all the pressure on a kid who should still be in the A getting reps and building his own confidence. He let in 2 goals on 3 shots in the 2nd of the last game.
Devils made me $15000 this year off bets, haven’t had this good of a year since 2015, vanecek ❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️
I’ve been saying this for weeks…..we have decent NHL starters not elite goaltenders but our defense is constantly allowing odd mad rushes, high percentage chances, and undefended skaters around our crease….and then we criticize Vanecek and Schmid for not producing miracles to keep us in games……….do those two need to tighten shit up? Yes they do…..the rebound control and positioning need to be better…..but short of an Ottenger or Shesterkin replacing our goalies without fixing the defensive structure/discipline won’t change much…it just means we might lose 5-3 instead of 6-3 on nights like Friday………